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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1471. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I found the potential reversal zone around the level of 1.1465. I found the up-thrust (reversal bar) and price failed to test the resistance at 1.1500, which is a sign of weakness. The upward channel is active and my advice is to watch for a breakout of the upward channel to confirm a further downward movement. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1220,

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Recently, the AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 0.7258. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found a fake breakout of the resistance at the price of 0.7300, which is a sign of weakness. I also found the breakout of the support trendline in the background and hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities with the target at the price of 0.7167.

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1467 to the bottom around 1.1215. But the pair rebounded from the bottom of 1.1215 to close at 1.1347. Probably; historic will repeats itself again. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1215, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1312, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1215 , the market will decline further to 1.1134 in order to test the weekly support 2. In the H4 time frame, the pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1215 with the first target at 1.1170 and further to 1.1134. At the same time, the breakdown of 1.1312 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.1467 in order to retest the major resistance.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia would preserve a constant monetary policy for a while, as the board expects progress on the targets for unemployment and inflation to be steady, RBA Guv Philip Lowe stated Tuesday.

It is appropriate to keep the current setting of policy for some time while progress on these goals are made, Lowe stated in a speech at the CEDA Yearly Dinner in Melbourne.

The Australian economy is performing well, Lowe stated, including that additional development is anticipated in reducing unemployment and having inflation returning constant with the target.

The possibility of a rate walking is higher than the possibility of a decrease, he said.

“If the economy continues to move along the anticipated course, then eventually it will be suitable to raise rate of interest.”

This will depend upon an enhancing economy and more powerful growth in family earnings, Lowe said.

Lowe remarked that banks ought to be prepared to make loans on expectations that some borrowers would be unable to pay them back.

“Banks require to take threat and handle that threat well.”

“If they end up being scared to provide simply since of the effects of making a loan that spoils, our economy will suffer. A balance requires to be struck here,” he included.

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Hong Kong’s customer cost inflation was unchanged in October, figures from the Census and Statistics Departments revealed on Tuesday.

The customer cost index rose 2.7 percent year-on-year, same as in September. The inflation figure remained in line with financial experts’ expectations.

A rate greater than this was last seen in February, when inflation was 3.1 percent.

The core inflation rate, which leaves out the effect of federal government’s one-off procedures, eased to 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent in September, generally due to the smaller increases in the prices of fresh veggies and the charges for bundle trips.

“The inflation rate might still undergo some mild upward pressure in the coming months, due to rising regional costs and continued feed-through of the earlier rises in fresh-letting property leasings,” a government representative said.

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Reflecting growing cost issues, the National Association of Home Builders launched a report on Monday revealing a sharp drop in U.S. homebuilder self-confidence in the month of November.

The report stated the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index plunged to 60 in November after inching up by one point to 68 in October. Economic experts had actually anticipated the index to edge down to 67.

With the much larger than anticipated decrease, the real estate market index dropped to its most affordable level given that striking 59 in August of 2016.

“Builders report that they continue to see signs of consumer need for new houses however that clients are taking a time out due to issues over increasing rates of interest and home costs,” stated NAHB Chief Economic expert Robert Dietz.

The much bigger than anticipated pullback by the index was partially due to a high drop by the element assessing expectations in the next six months, which plummeted to 65 in November from 75 in October.

The element measuring current sales conditions likewise toppled to 67 in November from 74 in October, while the metric charting buyer traffic registered an eight-point downturn to 45 from 53.

“The decline of home builder self-confidence ought to be kept in mind by policymakers,” Dietz said. “Recent declarations on economic conditions have actually lacked commentary on real estate, even as real estate cost has struck a 10-year low.”

He added, “Given that housing leads the economy, policymakers require to focus more on property market conditions.”

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new residential construction in the month of October.

Housing starts are expected to climb to a yearly rate of 1.225 million in October after toppling by 5.3 percent to a rate of 1.201 million in September.

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U.S. Real Estate Market Index Tumbles To 60 In November

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Bitcoin has been quite impulsive amid the bearish pressure today despite the recent correction at the edge of $5,500 area. The price is currently residing just few pips above $5,000 area from where it is expected to bounce higher towards $6,000 area in the coming days. Under the current market conditions, $5,000 is one of the most important price area in the Bitcoin market so far. If the price manages to bounce higher, then further consistent bullish pressure can be expected. Otherwise, a break below $5,000 with a daily close may lead to a drastic fall towards $3,500 in the future. As the price remains above $5,000 with a daily close, the odds that the price could push higher towards $6,000 in the future.

SUPPORT: 5,000

RESISTANCE: 5,500, 6,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

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USD/JPY has been quite soft as it is losing momentum across the boad that lead the price to reside below 113.00 area with a daily close. Despite uncertain trading sentiment on USD, the greenback has been keeping momentum over JPY despite upbeat economic reports from Japan.

Today Japan’s Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to -0.30T from the previous figure of -0.14T which was expected to be a -0.48T. Though Japan published better-than-expected data today, a deficit in the trade balance compared to the previous figure dealt a blow to the Japanese currency. Tomorrow BOJ Governor Kuroda is going to speak about the financial sector development and further monetary policy decisions. His speech is expected to be hawkish in nature leading to further sustainable gains on the JPY side.

On the USD side, despite the positive CPI and Retail Sales reports, USD has been struggling to keep momentum over JPY. As a result, JPY has been able to gain impulsive momentum. USD was hurt by the dovish comment of FED Vice Chair Richard Clarida who said that the central bank could revise its plans on monetary tightening amid concerns about a slowdown in the global economic growth. Today US NAHB Housing Market Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 67 from the previous figure of 68. Besides, FOMC Member Williams is going to speak. His speech is expected to be quite neutral with the modest impact on the currency. Moreover, tomorrow US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.26M from the previous figure of 1.24M and Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.23M from the previous figure of 1.20M.

Meanwhile, USD is expected to gain certain momentum over JPY, but it is expected to be quite short-term while any positive hints from the BOJ Governor are expected to lead to further gains on the JPY side with better sustainability for the long term. Until the interest rate dilemma in USD is cleared up, USD is expected to be quite indecisive and weak against JPY in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish with the gains after the recent bearish pressure which indicates a retracement is in the progress. As the price pushes higher towards 113.00 area, it is expected to push lower towards 112.00 and lower in the coming days. As the price remains below 114.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00

RESISTANCE: 113.00, 114.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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To open long positions on EUR/ USD set, you need: Purchasers of the European currency are focused on the resistance of 1.1429 today, which I talked about in more information in my early morning forecast. We can see that it was not possible to break through above from the first time, nevertheless, the euro did not fall rapidly either. his suggests that purchasers are getting ready for the breakthrough of 1.1429, and during the next test, I recommend opening long positions at the breakdown in order to update currently brand-new weekly highs around 1.1456 and 1.1485, where I recommend taking earnings. In case of a decrease in EUR/USD in the afternoon, it is best to consider buying the euro on a rebound from the major assistance 1.1381.

To open short positions on EUR/ USD pair, you need:

The bears attempted to prove themselves in the first half of the day after the update of last week’s high in the location of resistance at 1.1429 however there was no major fall from this level. Despite this, as long as trading continues below 1.1429, the pressure on the euro will continue given that there is a clear divergence on the MACD sign, which could lead the pair to the lower border of the channel 1.1380, where I suggest taking revenues. The primary job of sellers will be a breakthrough and consolidation under the level of 1.1380, which will rapidly push the euro to a minimum of 1.1329, where I recommend taking revenues.

Indication signals:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out above the 30- and 50-day average, which shows the bullish nature of the marketplace.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the sign in the 1.1429 location might lead to a sharp increase in the euro.

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow

MA (moving average) thirty days – green

MACD: fast EMA 12, sluggish EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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