Japan Has Y737.3 Billion Trade Deficit

By | December 19, 2018

Japan published a merchandise trade deficit of 737.3 billion yen in November, the Ministry of Financing stated on Wednesday.

That missed out on projections for a deficit of 630.0 billion yen following the 450.1 billion yen shortage in October.

Exports were up just 0.1 percent on year, shy of expectations for a gain of 1.1 percent following the 8.2 percent spike in the previous month.

Imports were up an annual 12.5 percent versus expectations for a boost of 12.0 percent and down from 19.9 percent a month previously.

The adjusted trade deficit can be found in at 492.2 billion yen, underneath projections for a shortfall of 307.6 billion yen following the 302.7 billion yen deficit in October.

The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

EUR/USD. Trump again made the dollar worried

By | December 19, 2018

“Worry has huge eyes”: something like this can be stated about the scenario on the foreign exchange market on the eve of the last Federal Reserve meeting this year. The dollar index dives down, showing the weak position of greenback versus a basket of significant currencies, and the yield of 10-year treasuries fell to 2.83%, lastly leaving the area of three percent. It is most likely that panic in the near future will only increase, especially after the current remarks of US President Donald Trump. It deserves keeping in mind here that members of the American regulator are required to observe a “silence regime”for 10 days prior to the conference itself– this rule is strictly observed by them. The president of the nation is not burdened with such limitations. And although Trump’s predecessors attempted not to discuss the Fed’s actions at all, the existing owner of the Oval Office has been putting verbal pressure on the Fed for a number of months. In the summertime of this year, he rather rigidly discussed the next rate hike, stating that the actions of the reserve bank harm the economic growth of the country. After that, Trump returned to this problem several times, calling the Fed’s policy “crazy.”


Jerome Powell diplomatically ignored the criticism of the head of state and did not alter the tone of his rhetoric. This fact soothed the markets for a while– till completion of fall, the Fed members began speaking about the level of the neutral rate. Richard Clarid said that the interest rate has actually practically reached its neutral level, so additional tightening of financial policy might have a negative impact on the crucial indications of the US economy. Then Powell discussed this topic: in his opinion, the rate is “simply below” the neutral range. And although this range is rather wide (2.5%-3.5%), this position of the Fed chief has actually disappointed market individuals. Not so long ago he said that the regulator might exceed the neutral level if the primary indicators of the economy grow at an advancing pace.

Simply put, traders have well-founded worries that the regulator will take a more careful position concerning future prospects. That is why the dollar feels rather uncertain at the start of this week. Donald Trump likewise included fuel to the fire, which a few hours before the start of the two-day conference once again slammed the possible tightening of monetary policy. In his Twitter account, he said that raising the rate in the present conditions is “astounding.” In his opinion, in the conditions of a strong dollar, low inflation and a slowing economy of China, it is definitely impossible to raise the rate.

Today he supplemented his viewpoint with another tweet, the text of which is worth pricing estimate: “Do not let the market end up being even less liquid than it is now. Feel the market, don’t simply go after the useless numbers.” I think any comments are unnecessary here. And although de jure Trump has no direct influence on the Fed, the position he voiced complemented the gloomy image on the eve of the essential meeting for the dollar.


The weakening of the US currency allowed the euro-dollar pair to show a more or less clear correction: the cost again approached the borders of the 14th figure. The single currency has likewise discovered a reason for its development: an impressive with the problem of the Italian budget plan might end tomorrow. According to the European press, the European Commission will announce its decision on Wednesday. If the parties still come to a compromise, the euro will get a strong sufficient support, given that this concern has actually kept traders in thriller because the start of autumn.

In addition, versus the background of an empty financial calendar, a report from the IFO was published today: on the one hand, the signs came out worse than the projection worths, but, on the other hand, the remarks to the report balanced out the negative effect. According to experts of the research study institute, although the German economy is slowing, it does disappoint indications of economic crisis. This is a really weak reason for optimism, but versus the background of a weakening dollar, it was the inspiration for a small boost in EUR/USD.


From a technical viewpoint, the scenario is as follows. On the four-hour chart, the pair reached the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indication (1,1401), however stopped working to break it, so it pulled back by numerous lots points. Despite an unsuccessful assault attempt, the cost still remains within the short-term upward motion, as the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo sign formed a bullish “Parade of lines” signal. The nearby target of the impulse is the 1,1401 mark, when getting rid of which it will be possible to talk about the development of the upward movement (up to the 15th figure, that is, to the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the everyday chart). But this growth can just be because of the “dovish” outcomes of tomorrow’s Fed meeting.The material

has been offered by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

GBP/USD. December 18th. Results of the day. Theresa May continues to stroll on the blade of a knife

By | December 19, 2018

4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 158p-195p-77p -137p- 79p. Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 129p (164p).

Following the Conservative Party of Great

Britain, a vote of no confidence in Theresa May can be made by the Labour Celebration. That’s what Jeremy Corbyn, her leader, stated. This decision was made by Corbyn on the basis of the post ponement of the vote in Parliament on the Brexit bill in mid-January. According to Corbyn, this is unacceptable, and the vote should be held before the Christmas and New Year vacations. Hence, just a couple of days after a similar occasion in the Conservative Party, it can occur again. Will Prime Minister May be able to keep her post this time? One thing is for sure, since September, suspect within the Parliament and among the country’s population is only growing. Further events can be definitely anything if Theresa May is still dismissed. Beginning with the abolition of Brexit, according to the choice of the European Court of Justice under post 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, ending with the disordered Brexit. The pound sterling in the last couple of days only thanks to Donald Trump, who pertained to the leading edge right before the Federal Reserve meeting, has actually increased somewhat. As in the past, nearly everything will depend on the final decision of the Parliament on Brexit, if the vote, of course, will take place at all. Therefore, we believe that the development potential of the British currency is not simply restricted, however really limited. The pound might get some assistance if the Fed does not raise the essential rate tomorrow, which will be quite unforeseen. This possibility is very little. Far, the price has managed to overcome the Ichimoku cloud, but the upward movement is uncertain and weak. Trading suggestions: The GBP/USD currency pair continues its weak upward motion and barely conquered

the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, formally, it is now possible to consider long positions with the targets of 1,2734 and 1,2774, however with severe care. It is recommended to resume sell positions not earlier than the reverse debt consolidation of the price below the Kijun-sen line with the

first target of 1.2514. Tomorrow’s statement of the results of the Fed conference might have a strong effect on the motion of the currency set. In addition to the technical photo, fundamental information and the timing of their release ought to also be considered.

Description of illustration: Ichimoku Indication: Tenkan-sen-red line. Kijun-sen– blue line. Senkou cover a– light brown dotted line.

Senkou period B– light purple dotted line

. Chikou period– green line. Bollinger Bands Indicator: 3 yellow

lines. MACD: Red line and pie chart with white bars in the indication window.The material has actually been offered by InstaForex Business- www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

EUR/USD. December 18th. Outcomes of the day. Intrigue: will the Fed be led by Trump?

By | December 18, 2018

4-hour timeframe


The amplitude of the last 5 days(high-low): 94p – 72p – 62p – 95p – 60p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 77p (83p).

The EUR/USD currency set on Tuesday, December 18, rather expectedly continued its upward movement within the side border with incorrect boundaries, the upper of which lies near the level of 1.1420. Donald Trump today handled to throw another stone in the garden of the Federal Reserve, requiring “feeling the marketplace” and not simply “chasing numbers.” It is clear that his post on Twitter came from the members of the Fed’s financial committee, whose conference began yesterday and will end tomorrow. Numerous anticipate that the Fed’s key rate will be raised by another 0.25%, however, after several “dovish” declarations by Jerome Powell and two calls by Trump not to raise the rate in December, the likelihood of tightening up monetary policy is reduced. It becomes even interesting whether the Fed will be led by Trump or a minimum of consider his arguments? The Fed is not subservient to Trump, but it’s most likely difficult to totally neglect the United States leader. Anyhow, we get the intrigue for tomorrow. Practically with a possibility of 100% if the rate is not raised, the dollar might collapse or, at least, seriously fall in cost. As for today, no important macroeconomic reports have actually been released. In addition to Trump’s tweet, no other macroeconomic info was readily available to traders. From a technical point of view, the set is repaired above the Ichimoku cloud, however this does not mean anything in the existing conditions of a high probability of a flat. The upward movement can lead to the area of 1,1420– 1,1440, particularly if the Fed will raise its essential rates of interest tomorrow.

Trading suggestions:

The EUR/USD currency pair got rid of the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, officially, longs with targets of 1,1408 and 1,1448 are now pertinent. We keep in mind that the likelihood of a turnaround in the zone of 1.1420 is high.

Brief positions can be thought about not earlier than the consolidation of the price listed below the important Kijun-sen line with the target of 1.1294. The potential for the instrument to fall is also limited at the minute.

In addition to the technical photo, essential information and the timing of their release need to also be considered.

Description of illustration:

Ichimoku Indication:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen– blue line.

Senkou span a– light brown dotted line.

Senkou period B– light purple dotted line.

Chikou period– green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.


Red line and histogram with white bars in the indication window.The product has actually been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Japan Trade Data On Tap For Wednesday

By | December 18, 2018

Japan will on Wednesday release November numbers for imports, exports and trade balance, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Imports are expected to climb 12.0 percent on year, slowing from 19.9 percent in October. Exports are called higher by 1.1 percent, down from 8.2 percent in the previous month. The trade deficit is pegged at 630.0 billion yen following the 449.3 billion yen shortfall in the previous month.

New Zealand will see Q3 data for current account, with forecasts calling for a deficit of $5.935 billion. That follows the NZ$1.619 billion shortfall in the three months prior. The GDP ratio is expected to slide 3.6 percent after falling 3.3 percent in Q2.

Australia will see November figures for skilled vacancies; in October, vacancies were down 0.5 percent on month.

The central bank in Thailand will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates; the bank is expected to hike its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, from 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

BITCOIN Analysis for December 18, 2018 888011000 110888 Bitcoin has been rather spontaneous with the recent bullish momentum, leading the rate towards $3,500-600 location. The cost is presently residing inside the resistance location of $3,500-600 location from where it is anticipated to press greater towards $4,000 in the coming days if it manages to break above $3,600 area with a daily close. The vibrant levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line is working as vibrant assistance, whereas breaking above 200 EMA signaled the upcoming bullish pressure. As the cost stays above $3,000 area, the bullish pressure is expected to continue. A day-to-day close above $3,600 is expected to lead the price towards $4,000 location in the future.SUPPORT: 3,000,3,350, 3,500 RESISTANCE: 3,600, 4,000PREDISPOSITION: BULLISHMOMENTUM: VOLATILE however IMPULSIVE The material has been provided by InstaForex Business -www.instaforex.com

By | December 18, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish momentum, leading the price towards $3,500-600 area. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of $3,500-600 area from where it is expected to push higher towards $4,000 in the coming days if it manages to break above $3,600 area with a daily close. The dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line is working as dynamic support, whereas breaking above 200 EMA signaled the upcoming bullish pressure. As the price remains above $3,000 area, the bullish pressure is expected to continue. Moreover, a daily close above $3,600 is expected to lead the price towards $4,000 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,350, 3,500

RESISTANCE: 3,600, 4,000




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Brexit and the euro: Theresa May makes an interesting move. The United States dollar continues to deteriorate prior to tomorrow’s Fed decision

By | December 18, 2018

The euro continues to increase versus the United States dollar, as lots of traders close their positions prior to the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates tomorrow. On the one hand, the probability of raising the rate to 2.5 % is really high. But on the other hand, how the Fed will behave next year remains a mystery.

Donald Trump’s recent declarations about the inadmissibility of raising rate of interest, as well as a weak report on commercial production and inflation show that Fed financial experts may not see the outcomes on GDP development in the fourth quarter of this year, which they are counting on.


In the meantime, the weak data that has arrived today on the German economy was overlooked by traders. The European currency, which is presently growing, is not so much strong as the American dollar shows weak point amidst talk of a monetary crisis and an impending economic downturn.

According to the report of the Institute Ifo, the index of company belief in Germany in December of this year fell more than financial experts had actually anticipated. This shows that the biggest European economy will continue its weak development versus the backdrop of tensions in trade relations.

In spite of the leading nature of the data, the German service belief index on Tuesday dropped to 101 points versus 102 points in November, while economic experts expected the index to be 101.6 points in December. , Ifo noted that concern is growing in a number of German companies.. Much of them noted the deterioration of the business environment.


The decrease in the Ifo index also confirms that the development of the German economy is slowing.

As for the technical image of the EUR/USD set, a fixation above the upper border of the side channel of 1.1385 will show a more likelihood of European currency development to highs in locations 1.1420 and 1.1450. Nevertheless, one should not forget that tomorrow the decision of the Fed on interest rates will be released, which can dramatically impact the marketplace scenario. Failing to repair above resistance 1.1385 could cool down the buyers of dangerous assets, which will result in a correction in the trading instrument to the support location 1.1360 and 1.1315.

Fantastic Britain

The significant weakness of the American dollar is also shown by the development of the British pound, which seemingly due to major political differences can not reinforce its position.

It has actually ended up being understood that the leader of the Labor Celebration of Great Britain, Jeremy Corbyn, might provide to submit a vote of no-confidence to Prime Minister Theresa May, as it was just recently in the Conservative Party.

Such a proposition might originate from the reality that yesterday, Theresa May refused to bring the Brexit arrangement to a vote in parliament prior to the Christmas vacations. This suggests that May means to set up a vote on the contract for the week beginning on January 14, which leaves even less time to work out and change the present Brexit contract, which does not fit the British Parliament. From another perspective, the Prime Minister of Great Britain will leave even less time for parliament to reflect on such a maneuver, as there will be absolutely nothing at all up until March 2019.

When it comes to the technical photo in the GBP/USD pair, apparently, the need for the pound is unlikely to be supported above the big resistance of 1.2690, which limits the upward correction. An unsuccessful combination above this range may cause the closure of a number of long positions and the demolition of buyers’ stop orders, which will return the GBP/USD pair to the lows of the day in the 1.2610 location.

The product has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Trump Launches Second Round Of Payments To Farmers Impacted By Tariffs

By | December 18, 2018

President Donald Trump announced Monday he has directed Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue to release a second round of payments to farmers impacted by the U.S. trade war with counties such as China.

“Today I am making great on my pledge to protect our Farmers & & Ranchers from unjustified trade retaliation by foreign countries,” Trump stated in a post on Twitter.

“I have licensed Secretary Perdue to implement the 2nd round of Market Assistance Payments,” he added. “Our economy is stronger than ever-we stand with our Farmers!”

A statement from the Agriculture Department said manufacturers of specific commodities will now be eligible to receive Market Assistance Program payments for the 2nd half of their 2018 production.

The 2nd round of aid includes approximately $4.9 billion in direct payments to manufacturers of specific commodities, bringing the overall payments to farmers to almost $9.6 billion.

“The President declared his assistance for American farmers and ranchers and made good on his pledge, licensing the 2nd round of payments to be made in brief order,” Perdue stated.

“While there have actually been positive movements on the trade front, American farmers are continuing to experience losses due to unjustified trade retaliation by foreign nations,” he included. “This support will assist with short-term cash flow issues as we move into the new year.”

The statement of the second round of payments to farmers comes after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping recently revealed a 90-day trade truce.

Last week’s news that Chinese state-owned companies purchased U.S. soybeans for the very first time in more than 6 months was seen as proof China is making great on its pledges to the U.S.

(Photo: Marc Nozell)

The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander