U.S. Dollar Fluctuates Amidst Uncertainty About Trade Talks

By | February 19, 2019

Reflecting unpredictability about trade talks in between the U.S. and China, the worth of the U.S. dollar has actually varied over the course of trading on Tuesday.

The U.S. dollar is presently trading at 110.60 yen compared to yesterday’s 110.62 yen. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1342 compared to the other day’s $1.1311.

The British pound has actually shown a significant advance versus the dollar, climbing up to $1.3066 from $1.2924.

The choppy trading came as the next round of U.S.-China trade talks get underway in Washington, D.C. today.

News that China accused the U.S. of trying to curtail its innovation advancement by putting pressure on allies to shun networks supplied by Huawei Technologies raised concerns about stress in between the world’s 2 largest economies.

However, President Donald Trump later on informed press reporters the U.S.-China trade talks are “going very well” and as soon as again hinted that an early March deadline to reach a deal might be delayed.

“I can’t tell you exactly about timing, however the date is not a wonderful date,” Trump stated in the Oval Office. “A lot of things can happen.”

Trump declared China is “trying to move quick” so that an increase in tariffs on Chinese items currently set to take effect does not take place.

On the U.S. economic front, the National Association of Home Builders released a report revealing a much larger than expected improvement in homebuilder confidence in the month of February.

The report stated the NAHB/Wells Fargo Real estate Market Index reached 62 in February after increasing to 58 in January. Economists had actually anticipated the index to inch as much as 59.

With the boost, the index continued to recover after hitting a more than three-year low of 56 in December.

“Ongoing decrease in home loan rates in recent weeks coupled with ongoing strength in the job market are helping to fuel contractor sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel.

He added, “In the after-effects of the fall slowdown, many contractors are reporting favorable expectations for the spring selling season.”

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Jonathon Alexander

Oil Costs Remain Mixed Ahead Of Stock Data

By | February 19, 2019

Oil prices were combined throughout Tuesday as financiers awaited stock information due later on in the day for direction.

Brent crude prices drew back from 2019 highs on issues that slowing financial growth in the U.S., China and Europe might damage fuel demand this year.

U.S. crude futures were moving higher on optimism surrounding OPEC-led production cuts and the U.S. sanctions versus exporters Iran and Venezuela.

Worldwide benchmark Brent crude reduced two cents or 0.03 percent to $66.48 per barrel, recuperating from an early drop to $66.17 per barrel. It remains near the 2019 high of $66.83 a barrel hit in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) unrefined futures were up 66 cents or 1.18 percent at $56.45 per barrel.

The immediate focus now stays on the U.S. weekly crude materials data due later in the day.

The product has been supplied by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Shows Significant Improvement In February

By | February 19, 2019

Reflecting growing consumer self-confidence and falling rates of interest, the National Association of House Builders released a report on Tuesday revealing a considerable boost in U.S. homebuilder self-confidence in the month of February.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index reached 62 in February after rising to 58 in January. Financial experts had actually expected the index to inch as much as 59.

With the boost, the index continued to recover after striking a more than three-year low of 56 in December.

“Continuous reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the task market are helping to sustain contractor belief,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel.

He added, “In the consequences of the fall downturn, numerous builders are reporting positive expectations for the spring selling season.”

The much bigger than expected boost by the heading index showed continued gains by all of the component indices.

The part assessing expectations in the next six months surged up to 68 in February from 63 in January, while the metric charting purchaser traffic climbed to 48 from 44 and the index determining current sales conditions rose to 67 from 64.

“The five-point jump on the six-month sales expectation for the HMI is due to home mortgage rate of interest dropping from about 5% in November to 4.4% today,” stated NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Nevertheless, price remains a critical problem.”

He included, “Rising costs stemming from excessive guidelines, a dearth of buildable lots, a persistent labor scarcity and tariffs on lumber and other crucial structure materials continue to make it increasingly difficult to produce housing at inexpensive rate points.”

Next Tuesday, the Commerce Department is arranged to launch information on brand-new domestic building in the month of December that was held off due to the federal government shutdown.

The product has been supplied by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 19, 2019 888011000 110888 Considering that June 2018, the EUR/USD set has actually been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the portrayed bearish Channel (In RED).On November 13, the EUR/USD showed current bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish motion above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE)was initiated.Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to improve additional bullish motion towards 1.1520. Nevertheless, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 couple of times so far.The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum considering that January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was shown around 1.1514 where another coming down high was established then.On February 5, a bearish day-to-day candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery. This enabled the current bearish motion to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the illustrated DAILY channel concerns satisfy the set. The EUR/USD set was demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the depicted cost zone(1.1300-1.1270)with early signs of bearish reversal probability.A bearish flag pattern might end up being verified if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is forecasted towards 1.1000. Trade Recommendations: A counter-trend BUY entry was already recommended near the price level (1.1285 )(the lower limit of the depicted movement channel). Stop Loss to be situated listed below 1.1225 while T/P level to lie around 1.1350 and 1.1420. The product has been provided by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | February 19, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

The EUR/USD pair was demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270) with early signs of bearish reversal probability.

A bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).Stop Loss to be located below 1.1225 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

February 19, 2019: GBP/USD is showing bullish breakout outside the H4 bearish channel.

By | February 19, 2019

On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair went to the cost levels of 1.2500 where the behind of the damaged daily uptrend was located.Since then, the

present bullish swing has been taking place till January 28 when the GBP/USD set was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the current bearish pullback was initiated.Shortly after, the GBP/USD set lost its bullish perseverance above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term situation turned bearish towards 1.2920(38.2%Fibonacci)

then 1.2820-1.2800 where (50%Fibonacci level)in addition to a previous prominent top lie(Highlighted in BLUE). Last week, absence of bullish demand was demonstrated around 1.2920 till Friday when significant bullish healing was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820(Fibonacci 50%level)leading to a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.This caused the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Expected bullish targets are forecasted towards 1.2970, 1.3040 and 1.3200

. Bullish persistence above 1.2920 (38.2%Fibonacci )is compulsory so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards the pointed out bullish targets.The product has

been supplied by InstaForex Company- www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

AUD/ USD: RBA Procedure offers more questions than answers

By | February 19, 2019

The minutes of the RBA conference was rather controversial, leaving more questions than answers. The rhetoric was “dovish “in nature, although the ambiguity of the wording enables a different evaluation of the potential customers for the Australian currency. In today’s Asian session, the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of its last meeting.

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This file turned out to be rather controversial, leaving more questions than responses. In basic, the protocol’s rhetoric was”dovish” in nature, although the obscurity of the phrasing permits a different evaluation of the prospects for the Australian currency. At the January meeting of the RBA, the regulator reduced the forecast for economic growth in the nation to three percent from the previous worth of 3.5%. In the procedure, this circumstance is discussed by the fact that the level of unpredictability at the moment has actually increased in lots of methods. Firstly, we are talking about the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the world economy as an entire, as well as the Australian consumer activity. Here it is really necessary to note the truth that the volume indicator of retail sales in January collapsed in the unfavorable location for the first time since February 2018. It reached the level of -0.4 %with the forecast

of a decrease to absolutely no. Consumer belief index and activity index in the service sector also show weak dynamics, which is partially due to low wage growth. In truth, this figure has actually been stagnant for a very long time in spite of the decline in joblessness. All of these result in the reality that inflation in Australia remains regularly low at the level of 1.8% per year, while the target level of the Reserve Bank is set at around two percent.

Independently, the regulator stopped on the scenario in the Australian real estate market. Let me remind you that real estate has actually fallen in rate in almost all major cities of Australia especially in Sydney and Melbourne. Prices have actually been succumbing to 13 of the last 15 months and over the past three months, the rate of decline has actually sped up considerably. Because the peak tape-recorded in the fall of 2017, residential or commercial property in Australia has actually fallen in price by more than 6 percent. To some surprise, the Australian regulator took a rather unclear position on this issue. The ministry kept in mind that the expense of housing has actually been actively growing for a long time, thus the existing price reduction “is most likely to have just a little influence on the economy.” At the same time, the regulator alerted that if the existing dynamics is “more powerful”, this factor will not only reduce the level of consumption.

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Naturally, members of the RBA did not ignore more worldwide problems. The Reserve bank is still concerned about the resumption of the trade war between China and the United States, as this trade dispute is a “substantial danger” for the worldwide financial outlook, according to the RBA. In Australia, they are seriously worried about the downturn in the Chinese economy, the rate of which turned out to be more powerful than their own forecasts.

Summarizing all the above, the regulator made a very ambiguous conclusion. According to the Reserve Bank, the rates of interest can either reduce or increase in the future and the probability of the execution of these alternatives is “practically the same”. At the minute there are no arguments in favor of a rate change (at least in the brief term), the regulator will adhere to stability in this matter.

The Australian dollar reacted to the released procedure with a minimum decrease by only 30 points, dropping to the bottom of the 71st figure. The indistinct rhetoric of the RBA did not allow the bears of the AUD/USD pair to seize the effort, thus, the price did not even test the boundaries of the 70th figure. n contrast to the head of the regulator Philip Low, the regulator members voiced a more unclear position that does not permit us to unequivocally speak about increasing the probability of a rate cut this year. The huge majority of specialists surveyed also tend to believe that the Central Bank will preserve the status quo in the foreseeable future. Majority of them believe that the rate will remain the same throughout this and next year, at least until the first quarter of 2021.

It deserves remembering that on Friday (February 22), the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, will speak in the country’s parliament where he will report to members of the Standing Committee on Economics of your home of Representatives. The theme of his discussion involves a broad evaluation of the current scenario so he can more clearly identify the prospects for the country’s financial policy. On the other hand, provided the rhetoric of the released procedure, it is not likely to differ the announced course, especially against the background of a possible “truce” in between the United States and China. The characteristics of the labor market can likewise have a substantial influence on Aussie. The joblessness rate should stay at the very same five-percent mark however the increase in the number of employees will reduce somewhat to 15.2 thousand, relative to the previous month.

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Overall, Aussie continues to trade in the flat, ranging in the 100 price point variety at 0.7060-0.7160. The levels of assistance and resistance are somewhat lower and somewhat greater than the indicated boundaries. Therefore, approaching the “round” mark of 0.70, there is a strong support level of 0.7030 where the lower line of the Bollinger Bands coincided with the upper limit of the Kumo cloud at this cost point on the day-to-day chart.

The product has actually been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 19, 2019 888011000 110888 Summary: The USD/CHF pair continues to move up-wards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first assistance level is currently seen at 1.0003, the cost is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the cost has been set above the strong assistance at the level of 0.9982, which accompanies the 50 %Fibonacci retracement level. This support has actually been declined 3 times confirming the accuracy of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we anticipate the USD/CHF pair to trade in between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the assistance stands at 1.0003, while everyday resistance is discovered at 1.0067. For that reason, the marketplace is most likely to show indications of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, purchase orders are advised above the area of 1.0003 with the very first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. If the USD/CHF set stops working to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decrease even more to 0.9908. The product has been provided by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

By | February 19, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Side pattern in the currency markets continued

By | February 19, 2019

Recently, the forex market continued to show unpredictable characteristics. There is a lot of reasons for this, which by their influence and some elements cause the rope pulling effect. The dollar drops versus the primary currencies and gets support against others.

The primary unfavorable for the rate of the American currency is the invasive signals of some Fed members about the requirement for a time out in raising interest rates and Lael Brainard even accepted stop the process of reducing the bank’s balance sheet. At the very same time, for instance, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic thinks that it is prematurely to decide on altering the exchange rate while evaluating the potential customers for the nation’s economy is still very high. In his viewpoint, the probability of a single increase in rates of interest is still valid.

Another essential aspect that brings unpredictability is the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing which dominates the marketplaces. Regardless of the favorable reports of the American president, there is no major factor to hope that the trade war will take a milder form if it does not stop. The compromising growth of the Chinese economy has already had a negative influence on Europe, which is already exacerbated by the Brexit issue. The slowdown in the growth of the eurozone economy against the background of the threat of economic downturn due to inflationary will definitely require the ECB not to take steps in altering the monetary policy, which puts pressure on the typical currency rate.

At the moment, investors are waiting on updated data on United States GDP and a visible drop in the growth rate might once again alter the wind instructions in financial markets, which might start to pump up the sails of the United States dollar due to increased demand for it as a safe haven currency.

Summarizing, we note that our view on the short term remained the same yesterday. We anticipate to preserve general lateral dynamics. A weak United States GDP data will increase the need for the dollar, which may once again reach regional highs but remember that this movement will remain in line with the side pattern.

Recall that Monday is a vacation in the US which restricted the activity on the marketplace.

The product has been provided by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Bitcoin analysis for February 19, 2019 888011000 110888 BTC has been trading upwards. We discovered strong momentum on the advantage and no signs of turnaround, which is an indication that purchasers are in control. The essential resistance levels are seen at the rate of$4.0645 and$4.200 (the key supply zone ). The possible breakout of these supplyzones would verify a potential test of$4.483 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). The essential support is set at the rate of$3.750. Trading suggestion: Bullish momentum on the gold. We are neutral on BTC considering that the price is close to the key resistance zone. Anyway, the momentum is bullish and you must watch just purchasing opportunities.The product has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

By | February 19, 2019

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BTC has been trading upwards. We found strong momentum on the upside and no signs of reversal, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The key resistance levels are seen at the price of $4.0645 and $4.200 (the key supply zone). The potential breakout of these supply zones would confirm a potential test of $4.483 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). The key support is set at the price of $3.750.

Trading recommendation: Bullish momentum on the gold. We are neutral on BTC since the price is close to the key resistance zone. Anyway, the momentum is bullish and you should watch only buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander