Monthly Archives: November 2017

Argentina’s House of Representatives authorized the prosecution of former president Cristina Fern?ndez de Kirchner as the alleged head of an illegal association. She is accused of cash laundering and “presents” circulation in the “Los Sauces” case, where contractors allegedly rented residential or commercial property from a business that belongs to the Kirchner household to get public agreements.

Cristina, who recently was sworn in as a Senator, denies the accusations while implicates the present Argentinean President, Mauricio Macri, and his allies of sponsoring lawsuits versus her as a political weapon.

In its choice, the House of Representatives considered “lack of benefit” for an “incompatible negotiations” accusation and decreased a possessions embargo from as much as 130 million pesos (US$ 7.47 million)to approximately 110 million pesos (US$ 6.32 million).

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Colombia’s unemployment rate in October fell to 8.6%, from 9.2% in September, reaching the most affordable level because November 2016, stated the country’s data office.

Prior to seasonal change, the October jobless rate in Colombia was 9.5%, down from 9.6% in the previous month.

The involvement rate in October was 65.6%, an increase compared to the 64.2% taped in September. The work rate was at 60.0% in October, up from 58.2% in September.

The nationwide joblessness rate for the August-October 2017 quarter was 9.0%, a boost compared to the 8.6% recorded in the same quarter of the previous year.

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A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest decrease in newbie claims for U.S. welfare in the week ended November 25th.

The report stated preliminary out of work claims edged down to 238,000, a reduction of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 240,000.

Financial experts had anticipated jobless claims to inch as much as 240,000 from the 239,000 initially reported for the previous week.

The Labor Department kept in mind claims taking treatments continue to be interfered with in the Virgin Islands due to the impact of current cyclones.

The report stated the less unpredictable four-week moving average rose to 242,250, a boost of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 240,000.

Continuing claims, a reading on the number of individuals receiving ongoing joblessness help, likewise climbed up by 42,000 to 1.957 million in the week ended November 18th.

The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose to 1,911,000, an increase of 18,250 from the previous week’s modified average of 1,892,750.

Next Friday, the Labor Department is arranged to launch its more carefully watched report on the work scenario in the month of November.

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Personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly more than expected in the month of October, inning accordance with a report launched by the Commerce Department on Thursday, while the report said individual costs increased in line with price quotes.

The report said personal income climbed by 0.4 percent in October, matching the boost seen in September. Economists had anticipated income to increase by 0.3 percent.

The Commerce Department also stated individual costs rose by 0.3 percent in October after climbing by a downwardly modified 0.9 percent in September.

Economic experts had actually expected investing to increase by 0.3 percent compared to the 1.0 percent jump initially reported for the previous month.

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $8,988. New Zealand’s central bank has issued a statement seeking to educate citizens of the fundamentals underpinning cryptocurrencies as well as the implications of such on monetary policy. The senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada has stated that cryptocurrencies comprise assets or securities, rather than currencies. Brazil’s central bank also addressed cryptocurrencies during November, issuing a warning to investors. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found strong rejection from the resistance at the price of $11,450 in the background. I placed Pitchfork channel to find the median line and I found a successful rejection, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The breakout of $9,360 may confirm potential testing of $8,090 (first target).

Support/Resistance

$10.521 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$8.988 – Intraday support (price action)

$8.090 – First objective point (Fibonacci expansion)

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Technical outlook:

A short-term trade setup has been presented here for EUR/USD on a 4H time frame. The wave structure suggests that EUR/USD might have hit an interim resistance around 1.1950/60 levels earlier and it should be looking to drop lower at least towards 1.1700 levels going forward. As discussed yesterday, the pair has found interim support around 1.1800 levels and is looking to bounce towards 1.1900 for now and then reverse lower towards 1.1700 levels respectively. For this wave count to hold true, prices should remain below 1.1960 levels from here on. We shall be taking a short-term view for the pair at least till a meaningful top or bottom is formed. Resistance is at 1.1960 levels while support is seen through 1.1700 levels respectively. Besides, the fibonacci 0.618 support is seen to be passing through 1.1700 levels and a bullish bounce could be a possibility then.

Trading plan:

Please look to sell around 1.1900 levels with risk above 1.1970 and target 1.1700.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

Technical outlook:

The short-term outlook for the US Dollar Index suggests that the instrument may drop lower towards 92.90 levels before picking up again towards 94.20/30 levels. Please note that resistance is strong at 94.20 since fibonacci 0.618 levels and the previous price resistance converges there. We would still recommend to remain flat at least for now and the look to go long again at lower levels. A short-term resistance trend line is also being tested and a slight correction looks to be due. Going forward, the break of that trend line would encourage bulls to target 94.20 levels at least. Please note that we are trying to remain conservative and still giving enough room for the probability above 95.00 levels going forward. It is always better to take a short-term approach for the next few trading sessions until meaningful highs and lows are formed to be held going forward.

Trading plan:

Please look to go long again around 92.90/93.00 levels stop below 92.50 and target 94.20

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for USD PCE Core today around 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. According to the 30M time -frame, I found that price respected the support at the level of 1.3432. I also found oversold conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3497 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).If the price breaks the level of 1.3500, GBP/USD might visit the level of 1.3600 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%)

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3461

R2: 1.3515

R3: 1.3580

Support levels:

S1: 1.3343

S2: 1.3278

S3: 1.3225

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. According to the 1H time -frame, I found that price made a morning doji candle formation (bullish) and a fake breakout of yesterday’s low at the price of 1.1816, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found an oversold condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1875 and at the price of 1.1900.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1881

R2: 1.1915

R3: 1.1946

Support levels:

S1: 1.1815

S2: 1.1783

S3: 1.1750

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/CHF has been quite bullish recently after bouncing off the 0.98 support area. The bullish move was quite corrective in nature showing no impulsive momentum. The pair is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, willing to push the price lower. Today, several positive economic reports were published in Switzerland which helped the currency to gain momentum against USD. Today Switzerland’s GDP report was published with an increase to 0.6% as expected from the previous value of 0.4%, KOF Economic Barometer was published with an increase to 110.3 from the previous figure of 109.8 which was expected to decrease to 109.5 but Retail Sales report was quite a setback publishing with a negative value of -3.0% from the previous positive value of 0.5% which was expected to have a slight decrease to 0.3%. Despite the worse Retail Sales report, the Swiss currency gained good momentum against USD recently which indicates that CHF is starting to recover its losses once again. On the USD side, recent economic reports and events were quite positive for the economy which helped the currency to gain ground against CHF, though sustaining the consistent gain is a big question here. Today, US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 241k from the previous figure of 239k, Core PCE Price Index is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%, Personal Income is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%, Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 62.2 from the previous figure of 66.2, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to reveal a smaller deficit to -37B from the previous figure of -46B. Moreover, FOMC Member Quarles is due to speak today about interest rate decisions and monetary policies. He is likely to be quite hawkish in nature. As of the current scenario, USD has mixed forecasts because of the upcoming economic reports and events. So, any positive readings of the economic reports will lead to gains on USD with an indication of further dominance over CHF in the coming days. Otherwise, CHF may take the lead further.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the 0.9860 price level having the dynamic level of 20 EMA holding the price as resistance. The price has been quite bullish recently which is expected to continue with the bearish trend if the price breaks below 0.9800 support area with a daily close with a target towards 0.9450. On the other hand, if the price remains above the 0.9800 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further and price may surge higher with a target towards 1.01 resistance area in the coming days.

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Overview:

• The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6881. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6881 (this level of 0.6881 coincides with the double top) to the bottom around 0.6830. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6881 followed by 0.6909, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6819. Also, the level of 0.6843 represents a daily pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6862 towards the first support level at 0.6819 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6819, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6819 towards the next targets of 0.6799 and 0.6780. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6909, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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