Monthly Archives: April 2018

Trading Plan for EURGBP for April 30, 2018 888011000 110888 Technical outlook: The EUR/GBP H4 chart view shows an intermediate wave structure. The price action considering that March 2017 till now has actually unfolded into an impulse( 5 waves ), followed by a zigzag (3 waves) as seen here. Please note that EUR/GBP dropped between 0.8960 through 0.8620 levels unfolding into 5 waves as labelled here. The subsequent rally can be seen unfolding as 3 wave restorative structure identified as A-B-C. The next probable relocation is anticipated lower to 0.8100/ 8200 levels in the coming weeks if the above counts hold to be real. Checking out the wave counts of a bigger degree, EUR/GBP seems to have actually completed Waves 1 and 2 as identified here, and is into its wave 3 lower now. Likewise note that the pair has found resistance just shy of the Fibonacci 0.618 retracementat 0.8830/ 40levels. Please prepare for another bear leg from here.Trading plan: Short now around 0.8800 levels, stop above 0.8960 levels, target lower to 0.8200 levelsa minimum of. Please keep in mind that this is a positional trade.Fundamental outlook: Keep an eye out for the US PCE Core at 08:30 AM EST,respectively.Good luck!The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

By | April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/GBP H4 chart view shows an intermediate wave structure. The price action since March 2017 till now has unfolded into an impulse (5 waves), followed by a zigzag (3 waves) as seen here. Please note that EUR/GBP dropped between 0.8960 through 0.8620 levels unfolding into 5 waves as labelled here. The subsequent rally can be seen unfolding as 3 wave corrective structure labelled as A-B-C. If the above counts hold to be true, the next probable move is expected lower towards 0.8100/8200 levels in the coming weeks. Looking into the wave counts of a larger degree, EUR/GBP seems to have completed Waves 1 and 2 as labelled here, and is into its wave 3 lower now. Also note that the pair has found resistance just shy of the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement at 0.8830/40 levels. Please prepare for another bear leg from here.

Trading plan:

Short now around 0.8800 levels, stop above 0.8960 levels, target lower towards 0.8200 levels at least. Please note that this is a positional trade.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the US PCE Core at 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Global macro summary for 30/04/2018

By | April 30, 2018

The beginning of this week is quite calm, although at the end of last week there was a really positive event on the Korean Peninsula where leaders of both North and South Korea decided to denuclearize their nations, pledging the formal end of the Korean War. While these are definitely promising declarations, Fitch remained doubtful in the report that the process of normalizing the relationship will probably be long and unforeseeable, and the upcoming meeting in between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump does not remove the threat of a military stalemate.As far as macroeconomic readings are worried, to start with, it is needed to discuss PMI publications from China. Industrial PMI in April showed a small decrease from 51.5 to 51.4 pts (anticipated 51.3), while PMI for services improved from 54.5 to 54.8 pts. Such readings look quite encouraging for stock exchange financiers, who are still cautious due to the trade potential customers between the US and China, as well as limiting lending in the second largest economy on the planet. The global investors should remember that the PMI reports that were released today were published by the government, while the private PMI from Caixin appears on Wednesday and Friday – both are anticipated to have lower values than those we saw today.Let’s now take an appearance at the SP500 technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is still in a combination between the levels of 267.28 – 265.47, however the market conditions are now overbought. Any breakout listed below the level of 265.47 will likely result in a slide to the level of 264.12 and even 263.00.

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The product has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for DAX for April 30, 2018 888011000 110888 Technical outlook: The day-to-day chart provided for DAX clearly indicates a prospective start of the bearish pattern either from the current levels or from 12,900 levels. As predicted here, the drop between January 23 and March 26, 2018 unfolded into 5 waves labelled here as the wave 1 termination point. Keep in mind that like its equivalent FTSE, the DAX has actually likewise broken below its 2016 pattern line assistance. The subsequent rally has actually not yet managed to reach the rear end of assistance turned into resistance pattern line, but is facing strong resistance at the Fibonacci 0.382 levels itself. Looking into the wave counts, the counter pattern rally seems to have taken into 3 waves a-b-c as labelled here. Whatever the case, the DAX is well poised to drop lower fromthe existing levels or 12,900 (Fibonacci 0.618)resistance going forward.Trading plan: Offer 50% positions now at 12600 levels, staying around 12,900, stop above 13,500 and target remains open.Fundamental outlook: Keep an eye out for the German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.Good luck!The material has actually been provided by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

By | April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart presented for DAX clearly indicates a potential beginning of the bearish trend either from the current levels or from 12,900 levels. As projected here, the drop between January 23 and March 26, 2018 unfolded into 5 waves labelled here as the wave 1 termination point. Also note that like its counterpart FTSE, the DAX has also broken below its 2016 trend line support. The subsequent rally has not yet managed to reach the back side of support turned into resistance trend line, but is facing strong resistance at the Fibonacci 0.382 levels itself. Looking into the wave counts, the counter trend rally seems to have carved out into 3 waves a-b-c as labelled here. Whatever the case, the DAX is well poised to drop lower from the current levels or 12,900 (Fibonacci 0.618) resistance going forward.

Trading plan:

Sell 50% positions now at 12600 levels, remaining around 12,900, stop above 13,500 and target remains open.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for FTSE for April 30, 2018 888011000 110888 Technical outlook: The day-to-day chart for the FTSE, which is presented here, shows that the next bear leg is just about to start. The FTSE dropped lower between January and March 2018, sub-dividing into 5 waves as identified here. While dropping lower, it broke listed below its December 2016 trend line support as seen here. On March 26, 2018, wave 1 terminated and costs were plainly into the sell zone. The subsequent rally likewise unfolded into 3 waves identified A-B-C here and the index is testing the rear end of its support became resistance trend line low. Please likewise keep in mind that Fibonacci 0.618/ 0.786 resistances are also in play now and bears should preferably resume from present levels. A standard Head and Shoulder reversal pattern is also been seen as the FTSE carves out its potential right shouldernow. A clear case of offering here need to be kept in mind.Trading plan: Offer now around 7,540/ 7,500 levels, stop above 7,800, target is open.Fundamental outlook:Keep an eye out for the German customer Rate Index and United States PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.Good luck!The product has been provided by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart for the FTSE, which is presented here, shows that the next bear leg is just about to begin. The FTSE dropped lower between January and March 2018, sub-dividing into 5 waves as labelled here. Also while dropping lower, it broke below its December 2016 trend line support as seen here. On March 26, 2018, wave 1 terminated and prices were clearly into the sell zone. The subsequent rally also unfolded into 3 waves labelled A-B-C here and the index is testing the back side of its support turned into resistance trend line low. Please also note that Fibonacci 0.618/0.786 resistances are also in play now and bears should ideally resume from current levels. A conventional Head and Shoulder reversal pattern is also been seen as the FTSE carves out its potential right shoulder now. A clear case of selling here should be kept in mind.

Trading plan:

Sell now around 7,540/7,500 levels, stop above 7,800, target is open.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for Dow Jones for April 30, 2018 888011000 110888 Technical outlook: The Dow Jones day-to-day chart has existed here for a bigger photo of existing wave structure and it shows a possible cone type consolidation/contracting triangle because Jan 29, 2018; highs at 26,698 levels. The set has been sculpting out lower highs and lower lows if you observe carefully. The index seems to be into its wave (3)of early phases at present. It the above structure applies, then costs ought to remain listed below 24,869 levels and broadly listed below 25,750 levels. Having stated that, please prepare to sell once again around current levels at 24,400/ 500 with risk above immediate resistance at 24,860 levels. Please likewise note that a break listed below 23,500 levels will accelerate the drop and would extend through 20,000 levels in the weeks to come.Trading strategy: Sell again around24,400/ 500 levels stop around 25,000 target 20,000 Fundamental outlook: Watch out for German customer Rate Index andUS PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.Good luck!The material has been supplied by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

By | April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The Dow Jones daily chart has been presented here for a bigger picture of existing wave structure and it shows a potential cone type consolidation/contracting triangle since Jan 29, 2018; highs at 26,698 levels. If you observe closely, the pair has been carving out lower highs and lower lows. The index seems to be into its wave (3) of early stages at present. It the above structure holds true, then prices should stay below 24,869 levels and broadly below 25,750 levels. Having said that, please prepare to sell again around current levels at 24,400/500 with risk above immediate resistance at 24,860 levels. Please also note that a break below 23,500 levels will accelerate the drop and would extend through 20,000 levels in the weeks to come.

Trading plan:

Sell again around 24,400/500 levels stop around 25,000 target 20,000

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Trading Prepare For AUDUSD for April 30, 2018 888011000 110888 Technical outlook: The daily chart view presented for AUD/USD is suggesting that the current drop that started in January 2018 from 0.8130 levels is nearing a major price assistance and Fibonacci 61.8 %extension near 0.7500 levels as shown here. Please note that while dropping lower for last 4 months, the pair has broken below its 1-year assistance trend line and is likewise looking to get the price support near 0.7500 levels, before pulling back. Traders who are holding brief positions, must prepare to book earnings in the meantime and remain flat; while aggressive traders should be preparing to turn bullish for a prospective counter pattern rally. Checking out the wave counts, the present drop has actually unfolded into 3 waves previously. Chances remain for a continued rally. It is still unclear whether AUD/USD is wishing to drop into 5 waves or not. It can be just verified in the coming sessions where the counter pattern rally would end.Trading plan: Prepare to take revenues on short positions taken previously. Aggressive traders prepare to golong around 0.7500 levels with a tight stop.Fundamental outlook: Look out for German customer Price Index and United States PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.Good luck!The product has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

By | April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart view presented for AUD/USD is suggesting that the current drop that began in January 2018 from 0.8130 levels is nearing a major price support and Fibonacci 61.8% extension near 0.7500 levels as shown here. Please note that while dropping lower for last 4 months, the pair has broken below its 1-year support trend line and is also looking to take out the price support near 0.7500 levels, before pulling back. Traders who are holding short positions, should prepare to book profits for now and remain flat; while aggressive traders should be preparing to turn bullish for a potential counter trend rally. Looking into the wave counts, the current drop has unfolded into 3 waves until now. Hence chances remain for a continued rally as well. It is still unclear whether AUD/USD is wanting to drop into 5 waves or not. It can be only confirmed in the coming sessions where the counter trend rally would end.

Trading plan:

Prepare to take profits on short positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders prepare to go long around 0.7500 levels with a tight stop.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

The dollar is ready to continue the rally

By | April 30, 2018

The dollar finished the week with an outright preferred, assisted by the favorable macroeconomic data released on Friday.The index of expenditure on personal intake in the first quarter of 2018 grew to 2.5% against +1.9%from the quarter earlier, which suggests a steady increase in consumer demand. The simultaneous boost in work costs by 0.8%led gamers to the conclusion that the development of customer activity has a steady base, which will be supported by overtaking growth in household incomes. Both signs surpassed projections and played a decisive role in enhancing the dollar.

As for GDP growth, there was a surprise for the gamers – the growth rate even fell to 2.3% versus 2.9% a quarter previously, yet it was substantially higher than the projections.

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In addition, data revealed growth of the consumer self-confidence index from the University of Michigan to 98.8 p in April, the consistent development in orders for resilient products, which supports industrial activity, and even unexpectedly strong decrease in the commodity balance deficit in March to come to a conclusion – demand for the dollar is maintained, in consisting of, and the constant development of the American economy, and not just the growth of geopolitical stress.

The calendar for the next week is filled, and the dollar may get a new impetus to growth on Monday, when the data on the rate index of PCE, showing the characteristics of costs on personal intake, will come out. Analysts expect development in March to 1.8% versus 1.6% in February, which will likewise add to the growth of core inflation – the primary price requirement monitored by the Fed in the advancement of monetary policy.

On Tuesday, reports from Markit and ISM on activity in the manufacturing sector will be published, some downturn in growth is anticipated, which, however, will remain confidently high.

On Wednesday, the next meeting of the FOMC will take place, which will not make any significant changes to the foreign exchange market, given that it is “passing”, that is, it is not accompanied by the publication of upgraded macroeconomic forecasts and a press conference. Attention of gamers will be riveted to the text of the accompanying statement, but it is unlikely to be very various from the previous one, the markets are waiting on another rate walking at the conference in June, this step has actually already been completely appreciated and consisted of in the quotations.

On Thursday, initial data for the 1st quarter on the labor market will be released, in specific on the growth rates of incomes and performance, in addition to the ISM index for PMI in the services sector.

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The key day of the week is Friday, when the work report for April will be launched. The number of brand-new jobs might be closer to 200 thousand after weak information for March, however the primary attention will once again be riveted to the growth rates of wages. Markets have to comprehend why, with a stable development in the labor market, inflation remains suppressed, and if they see a favorable action to their questions by the end of the day, the dollar will again close the week with a confident growth.

Reinforcing of the dollar takes place versus the background of the indecisiveness of other reserve banks. On Thursday and Friday, the ECB and the Bank of Japan held regular conferences respectively, following which both currencies continued to surrender their positions. The ECB directly prevented any specific guidelines on the timing of the completion of the repurchase program. The Bank of Japan left the rate on unfavorable area and verified its readiness to target the yield of 10-year bonds at the near-zero level, while the declarations about strategies to accomplish a 2% inflation target disappeared from the accompanying declaration, in 2019. We include that a week earlier, Mark Carney hinted that the Bank of England would not hurry to stabilize, and hence, the world’s largest currencies pleasantly gave way to the dollar, using him the continuation it rallies.

A strong dollar is not required by the US federal government, given that it will complicate the fight versus the budget deficit, but, obviously, this is inevitable at the existing phase.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Strong dollar is not an obstacle to petroleum

By | April 29, 2018

Oil rates ended up the week with a positive development. June futures for Brent reached$75/ barrel, and there are all prerequisites to that the growth will continue, as the majority of the aspects impacting the quotes are honestly bullish.Until rather recently, just optimists were favorable concerning the prospect of the OPEC+arrangement. The premises for this were actually major-everybody knows that the compliance rate of the OPEC members has actually constantly been at

an extremely low level, and with the decrease in oil quotes, the opportunities of having the ability to persuade them to integrate the extraction at the very same time in the face of an intense scarcity of forex resources looked utopian. Nevertheless, time has revealed that doubters have undervalued the decision of OPEC+, which managed to achieve all the mentioned objectives, and furthermore, there are rumors about the preparation of a longer arrangement, determined with a horizon of 10 or perhaps 20 years.Undoubtedly, this factor played in favor of bulls, but there was one more aspect, which even just recently appeared a lot more essential than the OPEC+offer. This is a record boost in production in the United States, which not just reached the position of a world leader, however likewise announced strategies to close the falling volumes from OPEC+. There are numerous puzzles with oil shale, and the first of them follows straight from the chart below.On Friday, the first preliminary data on GDP in the very first quarter was published, among others there were figures on investments in the oil industry.

Indeed, 3 quarters in a row there has been an increase in investments, but this growth is simply a rollback from a record

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decrease in 2016, and at the moment the financial investment volume is at the level of 2 square meters in 2011, that is, definitely below the peak values of 2014. In order to justify a record growth in production, this quantity of investment is plainly inadequate, especially given the brief life of shale wells.Employment in the sector and in basic was available in at an exceptionally low level, corresponding to the levels seen in December 2007, and this protests the background of the healing of the labor market.So, record growth in oil production in the US occurs against a background of low financial investment, a record low employment in the sector and a boost in production expenses in shale fields due to the depletion of wells drilled between 2014-2016. This is the number one mystery.The 2nd riddle we will discover if we consider the dynamics of cargo transportation of oil and petroleum items according to the Association of American Railways. A decrease in traffic as much as 4 square meters in 2017 is easy to understand and is connected with the total stagnation of the sector, however growth in the previous 6 months is minimal and substantially less than in 2015 and 2016, when production was considerably lower. How can one describe the simultaneous increase in oil production to record levels, a complete load of oil refining industries and a low level of freight traffic? Все эти загадки получают свое

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разрешение, если принять во внимание особенности статистического учета. В последние полгода компании сдают в качестве текущей добычи запасы нефти на промыслах, то есть добытые в прошлые периоды. All these puzzles will be clarified, if one would consider the functions of statistical accounting. In the previous 6 months, companies are giving out oil reserves in the fields, that is, mined in the past, as existing production. This made it possible to reveal record production, however at the exact same time, it reduced the worldwide level of reserves, which in the short run will assist to increase oil rates rather than decrease, as the accomplishment of a worldwide balance can take place quicker. As for geopolitical elements, they favor additional development of quotes. The International Monetary Fund predicts a stable development worldwide economy, with the highest rates being recorded in countries that are major importers of raw materials. The International Energy Agency reports an increase in oil usage in 2017 by 1.6%, which is a record for the last Ten Years, and already by 2019 the company predicts an oil scarcity. Both analysts and financiers are waiting on additional oil development-the basic aspects are plainly bullish. The technical photo suggests the danger of correction to the assistance of 70.20/ 70.40 in the coming week, after which the development will most likely resume.The material has actually been provided by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

Forecasters Slash Eurozone Inflation Projections For 2019, 2020: ECB Study

By | April 28, 2018

Eurozone inflation is anticipated to increase slower than formerly predicted in the next 2 years, while development is seen stronger, inning accordance with the Study of Professional Forecasters published by the European Central Bank on Friday.

Forecasters maintained their inflation expectations for 2018 at 1.5 percent. For 2019 and 2020, projections were cut to 1.6 percent and 1.7 percent, from previous outlook of 1.7 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.

The longer-term inflation expectations remained steady at 1.9 percent. Genuine GDP growth expectations were revised upwards for 2018 and 2019, to 2.4 percent and 2.0 percent. This represents downward revision from 2.3 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively predicted in January study. Forecasts for development were lowered to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent for 2020.

Joblessness rate expectations were modified downwards to 8.3 percent and 7.5 percent for 2018 and 2020, respectively. In the first quarter survey, forecasters forecasted 8.4 percent for 2018 and 7.6 percent for 2020. For 2019, joblessness rate expectations were the same at 7.9 percent.

The Survey of Expert Forecasters were carried out between April 4 and 10.

The product has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Extend Rebound Seen In Previous Session

By | April 27, 2018

Extending the rebound seen in the previous session, treasuries showed a noteworthy transfer to the advantage throughout trading on Friday.

Bond rates climbed up into favorable territory in early morning trading before moving roughly sideways in the afternoon. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its cost, fell by 3.3 basis indicate 2.957 percent.

With the ongoing decrease, the ten-year yield drew back even more after close above the key 3 percent level for the very first time in well over 4 years on Wednesday.

The continued rebound by treasuries came following the release of a report from the Commerce Department revealing a downturn in the pace of U.S. financial development in the very first quarter.

The report stated GDP growth slowed to 2.3 percent in the first quarter from 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, although the increase still went beyond economist estimates for 2.0 percent development.

The slowdown in GDP development came as customer costs rose by just 1.1 percent in the first quarter compared to the 4.0 percent dive seen in the fourth quarter.

Traders appeared to shake off data showing the annual rate of core customer cost growth rose approximately 2.5 percent in the first quarter from 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

A different report from the University of Michigan showed consumer belief in the weakened by less than initially approximated in the month of April.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for April was upwardly revised to 98.8 from the preliminary reading of 97.8.

The upwardly revised reading went beyond economist estimates of 98.0 however still came in below the last March reading of 101.4.

Looking ahead, next week’s trading may be affected by a number of different elements, including the Federal Reserve’s financial policy statement next Wednesday.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates the same, but traders are most likely to pay attention to the accompanying declaration for ideas about the outlook for rates.

Traders are likewise likely to keep an eye on the latest financial data, including the Labor Department’s closely watched economic report due next Friday.

Reaction to reports on personal earnings and costs, production and service sector activity, and worldwide trade may likewise impact next week’s trading.

If that were inadequate for traders to absorb, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are due to take a trip to Beijing next week to hold trade talks with Chinese officials.

The product has actually been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com