Monthly Archives: October 2018

Dutch Consumer Confidence Weakens For Third Month

By | October 19, 2018

Dutch consumer confidence eroded for a third straight month in October, as households’ economic expectations weakened, leading to a diminished willingness to buy, survey data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday.

The consumer confidence index declined to 15 from 19 in September. However, the score was well above the average of -3 over the past twenty years.

The sub-index reflecting economic expectations fell to 28 from 34. The willingness to buy indicator dropped to 6 from 8.

Households were also less positive regarding their financial situation and were less inclined to make big purchases.

Separately, the statistical office said household spending grew 2.2 percent year-on-year in August. The pace of growth was slower than those witnessed in the previous two months.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 18, 2018 888011000 110888 Summary: The Swissy is still calling for strong bullish outlook today. The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9875. The set increased from the level of 0.9875 to a top around 0.9865. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9865 followed by 0.9922, while day-to-day assistance 1 is seen at 0.9743(61.8 %Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving in between the levels of 0.9875 and 0.9999; so we anticipate a range of 124 pips. If the trend is able to break out through the very first resistance level at 0.9865, we should see the set climbing towards the second resistance (0.9922)to check it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9865 with the first target at 0.9922 in order to test the day-to-day resistance 2 and even more to 0.9963. It might be kept in mind that the level of 0.9963 is an excellent place to take profit since it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a turnaround takes place and the USD/CHF set breaks through the assistance level of 0.9875 , a more decline to 0.9740 can take place which would show a bearish market.The material has been provided by InstaForex Business -www.instaforex.com

By | October 19, 2018

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Overview:

The Swissy is still calling for strong bullish outlook today. The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9875. The pair rose from the level of 0.9875 to a top around 0.9865. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9865 followed by 0.9922, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9743 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9875 and 0.9999; so we expect a range of 124 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9865, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (0.9922) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9865 with the first target at 0.9922 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.9963. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.9963 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9875, a further decline to 0.9740 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for October 19, 2018 888011000 110888 Bitcoin has actually been just recently broken below $6,500 after particular correction for a few days above it, poised to move higher in the coming days. The rate broke listed below $6,500 area with a day-to-day close, the break was not quite impulsive to sustain the bearish momentum. Furthermore, the cost has formed Bullish Divergence which is anticipated to lead the cost greater above $6,500 area however in a volatile and corrective manner. The rate may get resisted by dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, Kijun and Kumo cloud. Nevertheless, as the cost is expected to climb higher, it stays above $6,000 area with a daily close.SUPPORT: 6,000 RESISTANCE: 6,500, 7,500, 8,000PREDISPOSITION: BULLISHMOMENTUM: VOLATILE The material has been offered by InstaForex Business -www.instaforex.com

By | October 19, 2018

Bitcoin has been recently broken below $6,500 after certain correction for a few days above it, poised to move higher in the coming days. Though the price broke below $6,500 area with a daily close, the break was not quite impulsive to sustain the bearish momentum. Moreover, the price has formed Bullish Divergence which is expected to lead the price higher above $6,500 area but in a volatile and corrective manner. The price may get resisted by dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, Kijun and Kumo cloud. However, as the price is expected to climb higher, it remains above $6,000 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 7,500, 8,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 18, 2018 888011000 110888 Overview: The USD/CAD pair has actually broken resistance at the level of 1.3000, which acts as support now. The set has currently formed small assistance at 1.3000. The strong support is seen at the level of 1.2945 since it represents the weekly support. In the H1 amount of time, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. The market shows a bullish chance at the level of 1.3000. Buy above the small support of 1.3000 with a target at 1.3089 (this rate is accompanying the ratio of 100 %Fibonacci ). On the other hand, if the pair closes below the small assistance(1.3000), the rate will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong assistance at 1.2945. Comment: Likewise, the double bottom is seen at the level of 1.2865. If the trend is resilient, then the currency set strength will be specified as following: USD remains in an uptrend and CAD remains in a downtrend.The product has been supplied by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | October 19, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair has broken resistance at the level of 1.3000, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 1.3000. The strong support is seen at the level of 1.2945 because it represents the weekly support. In the H1 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3000. Buy above the minor support of 1.3000 with a target at 1.3089 (this price is coinciding with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci). On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (1.3000), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2945.

Comment:

Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 1.2865.

If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CAD is in a downtrend.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Brexit: The Brexit arrangement may be held off for another year. The White Home might take advantage of the EU’s vulnerability

By | October 19, 2018

The British pound is selling a narrow price variety after the news on Brexit, which lead traders and financiers to a higher impasse. Today, the Minister of Commerce Wilbur Ross prompted the EU to begin an accelerated process of settlements on a trade agreement with the United States, stating at a press conference in Brussels that the perseverance of the President of the United States has practically gone out. This recommends that the White Home kept in mind about the EU and trade tasks, and simply at the incorrect time. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence.

Brexit and the pressure from the White House

After the appearance of such news, agents of the European Union made a proposition to extend the transition duration for Brexit for another 12 months, arguing that there is very little time left, and the problematic concerns have actually not yet been dealt with. Let me remind you that the UK’s exit from the EU is scheduled for March 2019.

Donald Trump demanded faster lead to trade settlements with the EU, development in which, in his opinion, is still unsatisfactory. European Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom, in turn, accused Washington of not dealing with the EU on forming a structure of the trade arrangement.

In other words, the trade dispute with China, which lasted for quite a long time and which will be discussed for more than a year, gradually relocated to the background. It’s time for the United States governmental administration to return the pressure on the EU, which is puzzled by the issue with Brexit and remains in the most susceptible position.

More than likely, the strategy of the summer break was made specifically because of the timing, which permitted the EU to handle two problems at the exact same time. Now, when an arrangement on Brexit has not been reached, and is not likely to be, it’s time for the White House to advise the EU about itself.

As I kept in mind above, now, in order to break the deadlock in the Brexit settlements, the EU is prepared to extend the shift duration for the UK for one year.

However this course of things is unlikely to suit the supporters of the hard Brexit, as the extension of the terms keeps the UK trade subscription for another year and requires them to comply with the EU guidelines. British Prime Minister Theresa May also made a declaration in this regard, which is considering a longer transition period.

The British pound, meanwhile, does not understand how to react to all this. A slight strengthening in the very first half of the day was replaced by a fall after the release of data that retail sales in the UK reduced compared to August this year. The fall was due to the fact that consumers lowered expenses after the summer season.

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According to a report by the National Bureau of Data, retail sales declined by 0.8% in September 2018. Let me remind you that consumer spending is among the motorists of financial development.

As kept in mind in the Bureau, at present, the potential customers for customer costs are unclear, even if wage development speeds up and inflation slows down. All this is offset by customer self-confidence, which is decreasing versus the background of Brexit uncertainty.The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: the first outcomes of the EU top

By | October 19, 2018

So, the October top in the EU, obviously, ended in failure. A minimum of, the previously revealed outcome could not be accomplished: London and Brussels were again not able to concur and even canceled the November top, where the finalizing of the historical deal was to occur. The celebrations do not see any sense in event in one meeting room and keeping in mind the lack of development in the settlements, so now the Brexit top will be

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held”on demand “-that is, when both the British and European sides confirm the achievement of a last compromise.< img width= "450" src="http://qkfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/gbp-usd-the-first-results-of-the-eu-summit.jpg"alt=" LA8Dowjm1a_7IA5QYoWBg_f5Vkgi00QbBHeToObB "/ > Nevertheless, based on the rhetoric of Theresa Might and the EU management, the positions of the celebrations are still at different poles- mainly in the issue of the Irish border. At the summit, there was even a concept to delay the date of Britain’s final withdrawal from the European Union. Hence, according to unconfirmed reports, Brussels recommended that London ought to lengthen the transitional duration for another year, which ought to now be completed in December 2020. Simply put, de jure, the UK will leave the EU in a few months (in March 2019 ), and de facto will stay within the structure of the single European market and the EU customs union for another three years. During this period, according to the authors of the idea, the parties will still be able to solve the problem of the Irish border, and other crucial issues.

There is another subtext of this circumstance: a possible modification in the political landscape in Britain. On the sidelines of the summit, many European politicians said that the settlement process is obstructed mostly by the lack of political unity in the UK itself. Theresa May, with terrific trouble, lobbied her own “Chequers” strategy in Parliament, which triggered a wave of criticism in Brussels and in the ranks of the Conservative Party, not to point out the Labour Party. And if the “hawks” among the British did not arrange compromise steps towards Brussels, then the Europeans, in turn, did not see even a hint of compromise there.

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Therefore, the chain was closed, and Theresa Might discovered herself in the center of the quadrangle: Brussels-Conservatives- Labour. The Democratic Unionist Party (specifically with regard to the Irish border) also expresses its claims – and the prime minister is required to reckon with them, since agents of the DUP are coalition allies of the conservatives and their votes are needed when thinking about such crucial problems as the nation’s spending plan.

The unscheduled parliamentary elections in Britain would help unwind this tangle. In case of victory, a Parliament more devoted to the Prime Minister would enable may to expand the variety of possible compromises. And this option was truly talked about not so long ago – however the head of federal government did not attempt to take this step, because there was a danger of again “stepping on the rake” in 2017, when, as an outcome of early elections, the conservatives lost a bulk in Parliament.

Furthermore, the performed surveys showed the growing popularity of Labour – who, though they do not refuse Brexit, however supporter extensive cooperation with the Alliance after the “divorce process”. Over the past two years, all sorts of experts – ranging from journalists and ending with the top officials of the nation – have actually described the negative consequences of disorderly Brexit without a deal in the brightest colors, and it is not unexpected that lots of Britons reconsidered their attitude to finish self-reliance “in spite of whatever”. Simply put, elections are not a choice for May (or rather, the most severe alternative), so she is forced to navigate in between the opposition, the internal opposition and Brussels.

Considering the conditions developed, it is clear that the deal is unlikely to be signed prior to the end of this year – unless one of the parties makes major concessions (which is unlikely). In my viewpoint, Theresa May will however consent to extend the period of the shift duration in order to avoid a financial collapse in the nation. Today, she even voiced this probability, however, extremely carefully. According to her, the transition duration can be extended “simply for a couple of months”, however the standard scenario stays the same – December 2020. Such expressions in the mouth of a skilled politician indicate something: the federal government of May accepts the proposed option, and the 1 year extension term will be concurred in phases so as not to cause a strong rebuff from the British parliamentarians. To put it simply, in the course of additional settlements, the celebrations will come to the conclusion that “a couple of months” will not conserve the circumstance, and, therefore, this duration must be increased to a year.

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By and big, this is the only “achievement” of the October EU summit, and of a rather suspicious nature in the context of the foreign exchange market. In fact, the program of unpredictability is extended for another year, while maintaining the likelihood of a “tough” Brexit. Nevertheless, this circumstance is unquestionably much better than the chaotic alternative, the consequences of which are challenging to evaluate till completion. That is why the pound today took the words of Theresa May with some enthusiasm, returning to the 31st figure in a pair with the dollar. The possible economic armageddon was de facto postponed for another year, and this “sedative tablet” has actually had its result on the market.The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. 18 October. Results of the day. EU leaders canceled the top on Brexit, arranged for November.

By | October 19, 2018

4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low):

66 p-111 p-98 p-95 p-93 p. The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 93 p (90 p). The British pound on Thursday, October 18, fell to the lower limitation of the Ichimoku cloud, but might not overcome it on the first effort. Nevertheless, at the moment it seems that this is just a momentary stop. By all indicators, talks on Brexit stopped working, a new round of negotiations was canceled by EU leaders. Therefore, the possibility that the UK will leave the EU with no agreements is growing. However this is not the main thing now. The concern is what will Theresa May do, who is at a certain crossroads. On the one hand, the lack of a “deal” with the EU is a major blow to her image and political rating. In specific, Boris Johnson has actually currently hinted that he is prepared to accept the post of prime minister. On the other hand, to conclude a “offer” with the EU suggests to make new concessions, which the British Parliament will not understand and, more than likely, will not support the vote. Thus, the existing potential customers of the pound sterling are again extremely weak. If we add to this the weak report launched today on retail sales in the UK, the photo for the English currency ends up being rather sad. On the technical side, additional downward motion restricts the Senkou Span B line, however, it seems that it will not stand under the attack of bears. If the price overcomes this line, the sell signal from Ichimoku will be strengthened, and the course will be open to the first support level of 1.3034.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency set has actually evaluated the Senkou Period B line. The sell-positions can be raised with the target of 1.3034 if the price consolidates below it. The reversal of the MACD indicator to the top, specifically with the rebound from the Senkou Span B line, will indicate an upward correction round.

Buy-positions can be considered once again no earlier than the cost repairing above the Kijun-Sen line. In this case, the trend will alter to ascending, however in existing conditions it is hard to envision what essential information will be able to support the pound.

In addition to the technical image, basic information and the timing of their release should likewise be taken into consideration.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen – the red line.

Kijun-sen – the blue line.

Senkou Period A – light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou Period – green line.

Bollinger Bands indication:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indication:

Red line and pie chart with white bars in the sign window.The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com