Monthly Archives: October 2018

Petroleum Ends Lower For 3rd Straight Session

By | October 31, 2018

Crude oil costs slipped on Wednesday, extending current slide, as data from U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles increased last week, rising for a 6th successive week.

With last week’s increase turning out to be less than expected, oil’s fall was rather limited.

Crude oil futures for December ended down $0.87, or 1.3%, at $65.31 a barrel. On Tuesday, crude oil futures closed down $0.86, or 1.3%, at $66.18 a barrel.

In October, petroleum shed about 11%, the biggest month-to-month loss in more than two years.

According to the information released by the U.S. Energy Details Administration, petroleum inventories increased by 3.22 million barrels in the week ended October 26, less than forecasts for an over 4 million barrels increase. Previously, U.S. unrefined stockpiles had increased more than anticipated on 5 successive weeks.

The report from EIA said gas stocks fell by 3.16 million barrels in the week ended October 26, about million barrels more than the expected drop.

A report launched by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday revealed U.S. crude products rose by 5.7 million barrels recently, more than analyst projections for a 4.1 million-barrel construct.

With U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports set to start this Sunday, the market is waiting to see as to what degree worldwide supply will be impacted due to loss of Iranian oil.

According to recent reports, Iran’s oil ministry began offering crude oil to private companies in the country for export, intending to counter the sanctions.

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Treasuries Move Especially Lower Following Upbeat Jobs Data

By | October 31, 2018

Extending the downward move seen over the two previous sessions, treasuries moved significantly lower throughout the trading day on Wednesday.

Bond costs came under pressure early in the day and remained strongly unfavorable throughout the session. Consequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves reverse of its cost, climbed up by 4.9 basis points to 3.159 percent.

The continued weak point among treasuries came after a report from payroll processor ADP showed another considerable boost in work in the U.S. economic sector in the month of October.

ADP stated private work leapt by 227,000 tasks in October after rising up by a downwardly revised 218,000 jobs in September.

Economists had actually expected an increase of about 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 230,000 tasks initially reported for the previous month.

The stronger than expected job growth in October reflected the greatest increase in private sector work because a jump of 241,000 tasks in February.

“Regardless of a considerable lack in proficient talent, the labor market continues to grow,” stated Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Study Institute. “We saw substantial gains throughout all markets with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way.”

She included, “We continue to see bigger companies benefit in this environment as they are more apt to provide the competitive wages and strong benefits workers desire.”

On Friday, the Labor Department is arranged to release its more carefully enjoyed regular monthly tasks report, which includes both public and personal sector tasks.

Work is expected to climb up by 190,000 jobs in October after rising by 134,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to hold at 3.7 percent.

Continued strength on Wall Street also weighed on treasuries, with stocks extending the strong upward relocation seen late in the previous session.

The prolonged rally by stocks begins the last day of what stays on rate to be among the worst months in years.

A multitude of economic information is scheduled to be launched on Thursday, including reports on weekly unemployed claims, labor productivity and expenses, production activity and construction spending.

Trading activity might be rather suppressed, however, as traders expect the release of the Labor Department’s month-to-month tasks report on Friday.

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Eurozone Inflation Near 6-Year High

By | October 31, 2018

Eurozone inflation sped up to a near six-year high in October mainly on energy rates and the joblessness rate was at its most affordable given that 2008, in spite of the economy growing at the slowest speed in four years.

Inflation increased to 2.2 percent in October from 2.1 percent in September, flash information from Eurostat revealed Wednesday. A comparable greater rate was last seen in December 2012. The rate was available in line with expectations.

Inflation again went beyond the European Central Bank’s target of “below, but near to 2 percent”.

Core inflation that excludes energy, tobacco, food and alcohol, likewise increased in October, to 1.1 percent from 0.9 percent a month ago. Last information is due on November 16.

The boost in inflation supports the European Reserve bank’s judgment that underlying cost pressures are gradually building despite the slowdown in activity over current months, Jennifer McKeown, a financial expert at Capital Economics, stated.

The financial expert said the central bank will end its property purchases in December and the recent slowdown in activity is not likely to cause it to alter its forward guidance.

Among big-four economies, Germany’s harmonized inflation rose to 2.4 percent in October from 2.2 percent in September and Italy’s inflation increased to 1.7 percent from 1.5 percent.

On the other hand, France’s inflation stayed the same at 2.5 percent. Likewise, Spain’s rate held unchanged at 2.3 percent.

Another data from Eurostat showed that the jobless rate in the currency bloc remained unchanged at its lowest level in almost a decade in September.

The unemployment rate remained the same at seasonally adjusted 8.1 percent in September, which was the lowest since November 2008.

The variety of out of work increased 2,000 from the last month to 13.153 million in September. Compared to last year, joblessness fell by 1.309 million.

The out of work rate among youth aged below 25, also stayed stable in September, at 16.8 percent.

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Technical analysis for Gold for October 31, 2018 888011000 110888 Technical outlook:A 4H chart has existed here to provide a medium-term trend outlook for Gold. The metal is seen to be trading in between $1,212/ 13 levels for now and ought to discover assistance anywhere near this price. Please note that Gold is trading really near to fibonacci 50% of current rally and a bullish reversal here ought to be rather motivating to open long positions. On the other side, a drop lower towards $1,204 levels also can not be ruled out as it is the fibonacci 0.618 assistance. In either case we would think about long positions to be held from yesterday or initiate fresh ones around the current rate action after a bullish candlestick pattern validates it. Major price support is seen at $1,182.50 levels. Up until prices remain above that, the outlook stays bullish.Trading plan: Stay long for now, stop below$1204, target $1260Excellent luck!The product has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

By | October 31, 2018

Technical outlook:

A 4H chart has been presented here to give a medium-term trend outlook for Gold. The metal is seen to be trading between $1,212/13 levels for now and should find support anywhere near this price. Please note that Gold is trading very close to fibonacci 50% of recent rally and a bullish reversal here should be quite encouraging to open long positions. On the other side, a drop lower towards $1,204 levels also cannot be ruled out as it is the fibonacci 0.618 support. In either case we would consider long positions to be held from yesterday or initiate fresh ones around the current price action after a bullish candlestick pattern confirms it. Major price support is seen at $1,182.50 levels. Until prices stay above that, the outlook remains bullish.

Trading plan:

Remain long for now, stop below $1204, target $1260

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: Inflation is not an assistant to the European currency. The pound stays under pressure after S & & P claims

By | October 31, 2018

If, in the first half of the day, the purchasers of the European currency kept at least some hope of recovering the EUR/ USD pair, then the inflation report put everything in its location, returning risky possessions to a further fall versus the US dollar.

Inflation information in France and Italy, albeit preliminary, injured the euro.

According to the report, the initial CPI of France for October of this year increased by 0.1% compared with September and by 2.2% on an annualized basis. Economic experts had actually forecast that France’s initial CPI for October would increase by 0.2% and 2.2%, respectively. Balanced by EU requirements, yearly inflation stayed the same at 2.5%.

In Italy, the preliminary CPI in October stayed unchanged from September, while economists anticipated a rise of 0.3%. Compared to the exact same duration in 2017, inflation increased by 1.6%, likewise being listed below the projection of economists, who expected growth of 1.7%.

Weak inflationary growth in leading European countries might require the ECB to think about the timing of rate of interest boosts next year, as it is currently clear that there is no specific need to hurry to make modifications in financial policy based only on inflation data.

When it comes to the eurozone, according to the EU Stats Firm, the annual inflation rate stays above the target level of the Reserve bank, which is somewhat less than 2%. As noted in the report, the annual increase in consumer rates in the eurozone in October 2018 was 2.2% versus 2.1% in September.

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As before, the main increase in prices was directly associated to the rise in rates for energy providers, while the yearly core inflation increased just to 1.1% versus 0.9% in September.Yesterday’s preliminary data on the eurozone’s GDP development rates, together with today’s inflation information, point to”alarm calls”for the economy. This may trigger the ECB to continue to beware, putting the traders in even higher unpredictability and putting pressure on the euro due to the fact that the rate boost may be delayed till a later date.The report on the labor market in the eurozone did not change the balance of

power. According to the European Bureau of Statistics, the variety of unemployed in September 2018 increased by 2,000 compared with August. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.1 %. The British pound continues to experience issues after the publication of the report of

the rating company S&P, which explicitly mentions that if an agreement on Brexit is not reached, this could cause a recession in the UK, which will decrease its sovereign rating.From the fall of the pound into the void hold just the expectations of financial experts and financiers who believe that the UK and the EU will

ratify the contract and conclude on Brexit.The material has been offered by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

USD/ JPY. Bank of Japan voiced habitual threats

By | October 31, 2018

The October meeting of the Bank of Japan was expected to be “passing”. The regulator left the specifications of monetary policy in its previous form and voiced familiar rhetoric. The tone of Haruhiko Kuroda’s speeches from meeting to meeting becomes more”dovish”, which implies that in the next 2 years, the Japanese Central Bank can just change its policy

towards relieving. In general, after the release of the most recent data on the development of Japanese inflation, this behavior of the regulator is quite foreseeable. On a month-to-month basis, the customer price index for the first time since April showed an unfavorable trend, dropping to no. In yearly terms, the sign also fell, to 1.2%.

In other words, the weak growth of inflation was replaced by a slowdown, and this truth might not be overlooked by the Central Bank. Certainly, the regulator lowered inflation projections. According to its quotes, the base CPI (that is, omitting unstable rates for fresh food products) will grow by only 0.9% this year (formerly it was expected to grow to 1.1%). Next fiscal year, which starts in Japan in April, is predicted to increase inflation to 1.9% (previous forecast 2%) and in 2021, approximately two percent, whereas earlier, the Bank of Japan had actually prepared to surpass the target level this year, reaching 2.1%.

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Thus, the Japanese regulator plainly outlined the momentary guidelines. Prior to 2021, the monetary policy might be revised just in the direction of additional easing. Throughout today’s interview, Kuroda advised traders about what measures the Reserve bank might take. This is a boost in the cash supply, and an increase in the volume of property purchases and, obviously, a decrease in the rate even more into the negative area. Although he acknowledged that such a circumstance is not basic, the tip was quite apparent. If inflation continues to deteriorate, the Bank of Japan will utilize the offered leverage.Let me remind you that in January 2016, Kuroda surprised the markets with an unexpected reduction in the interest rate on bank account to -0.1%, although literally numerous weeks before that he ruled out such an alternative. Now, the head of the regulator not just permits such a situation, but also cautions about its application. For that reason, considering the wayward behavior of the Japanese regulator, each subsequent meeting will be accompanied by the danger of financial policy easing in one type or another.By and large

, the marketplace was accustomed to the “dovish” comments by Haruhiko Kuroda, and the reaction of the USD/ JPY pair to today’s meeting was minimal. In the next two years, the Bank of Japan must not anticipate harder rhetoric, so traders will continue to overlook the “dangers” Kuroda until he executes them. Having actually mentioned this reality, market individuals concentrated on the news of the external fundamental picture. The yen still has the status of a defensive possession, so today’s flat of the USD/ JPY set can be credited to an unclear news background.

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Therefore, the Chinese production activity index (PMI) fell to the level of 50.2 points. The last time such weak numbers were tape-recorded more than 2 years earlier, in the summertime of 2016. Let me advise you that recently, China released information on GDP growth and industrial output. Indicators have dissatisfied the marketplace, as demonstrated a substantial downturn. Today’s release just contributed to the negative photo and increased the demand for protective tools, consisting of the yen. Likewise, the Japanese currency remains in certain demand because of the regular “collapses” in the stock markets.On the other

hand, the financial world retains hope for completion of the trade war, in the context of the planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 top in late November. Specialists are quite strongly talking about possible situations of a hypothetical offer, especially after Trump’s matching comments. Earlier this week, the American president announced that he “expects” the conclusion of a trade arrangement of a grand scale. Otherwise, the president included, the States will enforce tasks on the remaining goods of Chinese imports. Even the very little likelihood of a “truce” reinforces the threat belief in the market, while the demand for yen weakens.The kaleidoscope

of occasions quickly alters its color, but on the whole, the yen continues to lose its appearance, specifically versus the background of the fortifying of the American currency. Record development in customer confidence, a positive ADP report and a high possibility of a rate trek in December are pushing the dollar up, and the pair of USD/ JPY is no exception.

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The method also speaks of continued growth, with possible screening of 113.80. The pair continues to trade in an uptrend, remaining in the narrowed channel of the Bollinger Bands sign, while the rate is in between the middle and upper line of the indication, which are the levels of assistance (112.60) and resistance (113.80 ). The narrowed channel shows that the pair is getting ready for a jerk, and, probably, this jerk will be north, because on the day-to-day chart, the pair is above all lines of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indication, and this, in turn, implies the generated “Line Parade” which suggests the predominance of the trend signal, bovine. The upward motion is likewise verified by the signals of the MACD and Stochastic oscillators, which remain in the overbought area. Hence, the instant goal of testing for the set is the mark of 113.80.

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Viewpoint: Europe should resolutely oppose the tyranny of the dollar

By | October 31, 2018

Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes that the Vintage need to give a definitive rebuff to America’s one-sided policy and the tyranny of the dollar.

“The White Home got the so-called” secondary (indirect) sanctions from the predecessors, through which the US can separate unwanted routines from the global economy. Nevertheless, in the hands of the American administration, this tool developed into a cudgel, with which it started to threaten the allies,” the professional stated.

“After Washington announced its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (IFAP), European leaders began to look for ways to maintain Iran of specific benefits, however the United States is attempting to hinder this process in every method,” he added.According to him,

European corporations and central banks, consisting of the ECB, are currently under pressure. Thus, the Bundesbank thought about the possibility of opening an unique account to finance trade with Tehran, however declined this concept rather rapidly and without any special description. The Bank of France, in turn, developed a similar account, but also rapidly changed course.In addition, the European Union has actually not yet been able to

discover a country that would accept end up being the jurisdiction for registering a special company that will be used for settlements with Iran. This is explained, obviously, by the truth that the member states of the alliance do not want to cross the United States, hosting a comparable company, since Washington, in this case, can take political measures versus them and even enforce sanctions.” I believe that for the future, one of the most crucial for Europeans will be the following question, how to hold their positions in a world dominated by the dollar. Previously, the EU has actually currently opposed the protectionist attacks of the United States, threatening to apply countermeasures against American producers. Now is the time to do the same in the financial sector. This, unfortunately, is the only diplomatic language that the White Home appears to comprehend,”said M. Leonard.The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business -www.instaforex.com

U.S. Economic Sector Task Growth Surpasses Estimates In October

By | October 31, 2018

Payroll processor ADP launched a report on Wednesday revealing another significant boost in work in the U.S. economic sector in the month of October.

ADP stated private work leapt by 227,000 tasks in October after rising up by a downwardly modified 218,000 jobs in September.

Economic experts had actually anticipated an increase of about 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 230,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The more powerful than expected task development in October reflected the most significant boost in personal sector work because a dive of 241,000 jobs in February.

“In spite of a significant lack in experienced skill, the labor market continues to grow,” stated Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We saw substantial gains throughout all markets with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way.”

She included, “We continue to see larger employers benefit in this environment as they are more apt to supply the competitive salaries and strong benefits employees desire.”

The report said work in the service-providing sector rose up by 189,000 tasks, while work in the goods-producing sector climbed by 38,000 jobs.

Employment at small companies increased by 29,000 tasks, employment at medium-sized organisations jumped by 96,000 tasks and work at large services shot up by 102,000 tasks.

“Review to the robust employment image is the broad-based gains in jobs across industries,” said Mark Zandi, primary economic expert of Moody’s Analytics. “The only imperfection is the struggles small companies are having filling open task positions.”

On Friday, the Labor Department is arranged to release its more carefully watched regular monthly tasks report, that includes both public and private sector jobs.

Employment is anticipated to climb up by 190,000 jobs in October after increasing by 134,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.7 percent.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 31, 2018 888011000 110888 On September 13, the illustrated daily drop line which cameto fulfill the set around 1.3025-1.3090 stopped working to provide enough bearish pressure on the pair. Ever since, the GBP/USD set has actually been showing a successful bullish breakout so far.On September 21, the GBP/USD stopped working to show sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the portrayed H4 bearish channel to evaluate the behind of the broken uptrend.Bearish persistence listed below the cost level of 1.2970 (50 %Fibo level)enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2790 where the lower limit of the movement channel and 79.8 %Fibonacci Level are located.On H4 chart, the GBP/USD set looks oversold around the present rate levels(1.2700). BUY entries are chosen at the current circumstance (the lower limitation of the portrayed H4 channel). As for the bullish breakout circumstance to remain valid, bullish determination above 1.2790 (the depicted channel upper limit)and an early breakout above 1.3000(50 %Fibo level)are obligatory to maintain adequate bullish momentum towards 1.3200. On the other hand, the existing bearish perseverance listed below 1.2790 enables a further decline towards 1.2695 and 1.2660. That’s why, price action must be viewed around the price level of 1.2790(79.8 %Fibo level)for more trading decisions.The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | October 31, 2018

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On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2970 (50% Fibo level) enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2790 where the lower limit of the movement channel and 79.8% Fibonacci Level are located.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looks oversold around the current price levels (1.2700). BUY entries are preferred at the current situation (the lower limit of the depicted H4 channel).

As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.2790 (the depicted channel upper limit) and an early breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) are mandatory to maintain sufficient bullish momentum towards 1.3200.

On the other hand, the current bearish persistence below 1.2790 allows a further decline towards 1.2695 and 1.2660. That’s why, price action should be watched around the price level of 1.2790 (79.8% Fibo level) for further trading decisions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 31, 2018 888011000 110888 On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders turnaround pattern where the ideal shoulder is currently in progress.On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 used short-lived bullish recovery . Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the ceiling of the rate range (1.1750).The EUR/USD bulls stopped working to pursue towards higher bullish targets. On October 10, a current decline listed below 1.1520 discovered its method towards the rate level of1.1420. Short-lived bullish healing around 1.1430 pressed the EUR/USD set above 1.1520 up until a bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again on October 17. Thus, a coming down high was established around 1.1600 boosting the bearish side of the market.As for the bearish side of the marketplace to stay dominant, the EUR/USD pair should pursue trading below the price level of 1.1400. The present bearish breakout has preliminary targets around 1.1275 and probably 1.1100 if sufficient bearish pressure is demonstrated.The product has actually been provided by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | October 31, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

On October 10, a recent decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.

However, temporary bullish recovery around 1.1430 pushed the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520 until a bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again on October 17.

Hence, a descending high was established around 1.1600 enhancing the bearish side of the market.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should pursue trading below the price level of 1.1400.

The current bearish breakout has initial targets around 1.1275 and probably 1.1100 if sufficient bearish pressure is demonstrated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com