AUD/USD: do not rely on the growth of the Australian dollar

By | January 18, 2019

Given that October of in 2015, the AUD/USD pair has been trading within a wide-range flat, without leaving the variety of 0.70-0.73. This behavior is extremely common for the “aussie”: the price might vary in one cost niche for several months, after which it impulsively moves to the next “level” – greater or lower. The main question now is when the AUD/USD will change the trajectory of its motion and, most notably, in which direction.

The complexity of the scenario is because of the weakness of the United States dollar. If in previous years, the pair grew, as a guideline, due to strong economic reports in Australia and/or due to the fortifying of the product market, now the growth dynamics depends on how weak the position of the US currency. The Federal Reserve is still revealing a dovish mindset, and dollar bulls are forced to reckon with this fact. Short-term support for the greenback is supplied by external basic elements (issue about Brexit, for example). However if we speak about the long-lasting potential customers of the greenback, they look rather unclear, so the AUD/USD bears must not rely on the down trend of the pair just due to the conditioning of the US dollar.

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Nevertheless, this does not imply that the bearish pattern of the aussie does not have any potential customers. In my viewpoint, the AUD/USD pair has more opportunities to go into the area of 60 figures than to show the opposite dynamics. Blame China. The Australian economy is very based on the Chinese, so the slowdown in the primary macroeconomic indications of China has actually not passed without a trace for the green continent. According to the most recent data, the Australian economy decreased more than anticipated in the 3rd quarter of in 2015: GDP grew by just 0.3%, while most professionals anticipated a growth of 0.6%. On an annualized basis, the indicator increased by 2.8% versus the background of a general growth forecast of 3.3%. Relative to the fourth quarter, experts likewise do not harbor positive impressions – as a lot of them think, at the end of in 2015, the Australian economy will reveal even weaker development.

And in this context, China is “in step” with Australia: according to the agreement projection, the Chinese economy this year will show the weakest development over the past 30 (!) years – 6.3%. According to initial data, in 2015 this figure was 6.6% after rising in 2017 to 6.9%. The December PMI in the manufacturing sector of China just verifies this pattern – in the last month of last year, it crossed the “red line” in the type of the 50 mark and was at 49.4 points.

Related financial indications also show a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Thus, import and export figures revealed weak characteristics: exports sharply fell immediately by 4.4% on an annualized basis, while imports decreased right away by 7.6% in yearly terms (the greatest decrease in 2 years). Summed up the Chinese inflation. According to initial forecasts, the customer cost index in 2015 was to grow by three percent, however the genuine numbers were much lower – 2.1%. The manufacturer price index was disappointing, which in December revealed an increase of 0.8%, while experts expected a downturn to simply 1.6%.

This unfavorable trend is due to numerous elements, however the main reason is, of course, the US-China trade war. Now the celebrations are preparing a broad trade offer that will put an end to practically a year-longl dispute– however even in this case, the crucial macro signs will not recover their positions in one day. Therefore, the Australian economy this year will be quite clearly feel the echoes of “military action” on the trade front.

In addition to the Chinese factor, we ought to not forget other problems that have no less noticable influence on the dynamics of the aussie In specific, we are discussing a massive decline in the real estate market in Australia: after many years of increasing housing prices, the Australian real estate market is slowing greatly. For example, the expense of real estate in the 8 largest cities of the country fell by 2.5% in 2015– this is the first truth of price decrease because 2012. For comparison – by the end of 2017, the realty market in these cities has actually risen by 11%.

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The above scenarios recommend that the Reserve Bank of Australia will definitely not hurry to tighten up monetary policy. And if earlier, traders were directed in this plan at the end of 2019, now this date has actually been relocated to 2020. Furthermore, the growing debt burden of customers might require the RBA to take a softer position in the foreseeable future, while the weakening of the national currency will just be a “present” for the central bank’s members.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair has a latent potential of decrease – a minimum of to the bottom of the 71st figure (that is, to the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart).

The material has actually been offered by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

EC and the United States: a brand-new trade war in between the EU and the USA is really close

By | January 18, 2019

The European currency again stopped working to acquire a grip above essential resistance levels and began to slowly lose ground against the US dollar in the afternoon after the release of a great report on the United States labor market, in addition to before the publication of the report of the US Department of Commerce, in which the import of cars from the European Union will be important.

The trade war is getting momentum.

It is anticipated that in the above report it will be clear whether United States President Donald Trump will return to a protectionist policy towards the EU, given that from an economic point of view, the import of cars and trucks is strategically crucial and can posture a hazard to United States national security. Last year tariffs on Chinese products were presented in this way.

Even today, EU authorities have actually imposed limitations on the import of steel in order to fight the repercussions of United States trade policy, that makes it possible for the United States president to confirm the requirement for import tasks on metals, which were presented in 2015 by the United States.

The European Commission said that the new steps involve the intro of quotas on imports of 26 categories of items, in addition to 25% responsibility on imports in excess of this quota. This decision will work from February 4 and will change the temporary solution, which was introduced in July 2018.

Today’s data on inflation in the eurozone, as the other day in Germany, totally coincided with the projections of economists, which is most likely to force the European Reserve bank to follow a wait-and-see approach at a meeting to be held next week. However, the primary focus, of course, will be moved towards the degeneration of the growth prospects of the European economy in 2019.

According to the statistics agency, the consumer cost index CPI of the eurozone in December this year remained unchanged and year-on-year grew by 1.6%, totally accompanying the projections of economists. The Core CPI core consumer price index, which does not take into consideration unstable categories, rose 0.5% in December compared to November and 1.0% year-on-year. The customer price index of the eurozone excluding tobacco products in December was 1.5%.

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The United States labor market data supplied some assistance to the US dollar. According to a report from the United States Department of Labor, the variety of preliminary jobless claims for the week from 6 to 12 January fell by 3,000 to 213,000. Financial experts had actually expected the number of applications to be 220,000.

Activity increased in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States in January. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the index of company activity increased to 17.0 points in January 2019 against 9.1 points in December, while economists had expected the index to reach 8.0 points in January. The report notes that business remain optimistic for the next six months, with more than 46% of the business surveyed anticipating increased activity.

When it comes to the technical image of the EURUSD set, the bears are trying to resume the down movement in the market after an unsuccessful attempt of bulls to go back to the video game. The breakout of 1.1375 may lead to a bigger decline in risky properties with the update of the lows of 1.1340 and 1.1310. In the case of another false breakout at 1.1375, the bulls may want to return, which will result in an effective upward momentum with a test and a development of the intermediate resistance of 1.1415 and the primary goal of updating a high of 1.1450.

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EUR/USD: weak euro, weak dollar

By | January 18, 2019

EUR/USD comes down gradually, although the single currency, and the greenback are under a particular pressure. On the one hand, the slowdown in the eurozone, dovish comments from the European Reserve Bank and the unpredictability of Brexit, on the other hand, a record shutdown, a downturn in U.S. inflation and a slowdown in the increase in interest rates. Bears of the EUR/USD stay dominant in this conflict, but their supremacy can be called conditional– they do not have sufficient arguments for the development of a massive down trend.

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In general, the price “reaction” allows the set to fall at least to the level of 1,1365(the lower limitation of the Kumo cloud on D1 )and 1,1320( the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the very same timeframe ). But bears of EUR/USD are in no hurry to go to the target levels, and the downwards momentum is gradually losing its strength. Although till just recently there were all the requirements for checking the 12th figure, particularly after Mario Draghi’s “dovish” comments.

Speaking in the European Parliament, the ECB head was no longer as optimistic as he was back at the December conference. He acknowledged that the eurozone economy is slowing down at a more considerable pace than previously expected, and that the most important thing is that this trend will continue “for a long time”. Such words versus the background of many months of reducing inflation and commercial production had a negative impact on traders of the EUR/USD: initially, the price might not stay within the framework of the 15th figure, then plummeted to the level of 1,1380. After all, Draghi’s approximated position recommends that the ECB is unlikely to raise the rate within the current year, although the standard circumstance presumes one boost in autumn or winter season. If the economic circumstance in the eurozone does not alter radically, the approximate date of the first boost will have to be postponed to the very first half of 2020.

It deserves remembering that in October, Mario Draghi will leave his post, and the “hawk” Jens Weidmann is not likely to take his place (although he used to be the main prospect for this position). As it became known at the end of last year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel wish to see her protege as the head of the European Commission and for this she can “exchange” the position of head of the ECB. After Weidmann in fact fizzled out, the most likely prospect for this post was Erkki Liikanen, the head of the Central Bank of Finland, who is understood for his cautious position.

Thus, agents of the European regulator noticeably soften their rhetoric, putting pressure on the single currency. A new age of conflict between Rome and the ECB only complements the negative essential image versus the background of unpredictable potential customers Brexit.

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Despite this” bunch “of downward elements, bears of the EUR/USD could not even reach the greatest support levels to mark their top priority. The US dollar is also under the yoke of problems, amongst which there are a number of major ones. First, the US Federal Reserve, as well as the ECB, substantially softens its rhetoric.

At the start of January, 3 Fed agents, Charles Evans, Erik Rosengren and James Bullard, all spoke (all with voting rights this year). Two of them (Evans and Rosengren) had formerly taken a rather “hawkish” position, today they have actually altered their point of view, showing general patterns. And although they are still in favor of raising the rate, officials have actually revealed a list of risks that threaten United States economic development. As an outcome, each of them pertained to an unquestionable conclusion: there is no requirement to rush with tightening up of financial policy this year. In turn, Bullard specified that the stakes are now at an acceptable level, so a further increase is inappropriate.

Likewise, the US dollar was under pressure due to the publication of strong business reports (mostly in the banking sector), due to which the stock market came to life. In particular, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs showed the strongest gains. Their efficiency for the 4th quarter of last year ended up being more powerful than the forecasts of many analysts.

Indirectly, the scenario with the American currency was also affected by the circumstance with Brexit. Contrary to the expectations of many specialists, the failed vote did not end up being a disaster. Markets laid such a possibility in present rates, so the extremely reality of disapproval of the transaction was perceived by traders calmly. Furthermore, subsequent occasions made it possible to speak about a high probability of a “soft” Brexit.

First of all, the British Parliament expressed confidence in the May government (Laborites were completely beat here), and second of all, the prime minister guaranteed to listen to the “desires” of parliamentary factions in order to collaborate with the EU the choice of the deputies. And although these objectives might not be realized, there is a fallback option – postponing Brexit. In other words, the likelihood of Britain’s disorderly exit from the EU has considerably decreased, and this truth puts indirect pressure on the greenback due to the absence of panic in the market (and, accordingly, increased demand for the dollar).

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Summarizing, it must be kept in mind that the pair is stuck in a flat, which is caused just by negative essential factors – both from the dollar and from the euro. In my viewpoint, the scenario might kip down favor of the single currency – if London and Brussels find common ground on the draft transaction. Otherwise, the set will continue to crawl to the level of 1.1365 (lower Kumo cloud limit on D1) and 1.1320 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the very same timeframe), followed by an effort to evaluate the 12th figure. The nearby resistance levels are at 1.1420 and 1.1470 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud and the Tenkan-sen line, respectively). If the rate of EUR/USD overcomes these barriers, then the next target will be the cost of 1.1520 – the upper line of the Bollinger Bands sign, the breakthrough of which will break the ice to the 16th figure.The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for January 17, 2019 888011000 110888 Bitcoin has been combining and fixing itself at the edge of $3,600 location for a while now. The price has actually been turned down off the $3,600 support area with strong bullish momentum but the impulsive pressure is still not sufficient to push higher above $3,700 i.e. above 200 EMA. The rate is being included by Kumo Cloud, Tenkan, and 20 EMA resistance in the intraday chart which shows that the bears are currently holding the upper hand over the bulls. Though the bias is still bullish as the price remains above $3,000 location with a daily close, the bullish pressure can just sustain its momentum if the cost breaks above $4,000 location with a daily close. A break above Kumo Cloud resistance or $3,700 is a must for the present price to reach $4,000 or higher.SUPPORT: 3,000,3,500, 3,600RESISTANCE: 3,700, 4,000, 4,250PREDISPOSITION: BEARISHMOMENTUM: VOLATILE The product has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business -www.instaforex.com

By | January 17, 2019

Bitcoin has been consolidating and correcting itself at the edge of $3,600 area for a while now. The price has been rejected off the $3,600 support area with strong bullish momentum but the impulsive pressure is still not sufficient to push higher above $3,700 i.e. above 200 EMA. The price is being contained by Kumo Cloud, Tenkan, and 20 EMA resistance in the intraday chart which indicates that the bears are currently holding the upper hand over the bulls. Though the bias is still bullish as the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish pressure can only sustain its momentum if the price breaks above $4,000 area with a daily close. A break above Kumo Cloud resistance or $3,700 is a must for the current price to reach $4,000 or higher.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,700, 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

USD/ CAD: “Loonie” dangers ending up being hostage to the policies of the Fed and the Bank of Canada

By | January 17, 2019

If last year the Loonie turned into one of the outsiders amongst the currencies of the G10 nations

, having lost 8%versus the American, then at the beginning of this year, the CAD handled to recover a few losses.The rebound in oil rates from 18-month lows, the resumption of trade negotiations in between the United States and

the Middle Kingdom, the Fed’s desire to take a time out in the procedure of tightening up financial policy, along with the longest “off”the US government allowed the “bears” on USD/ CAD to go on the attack. However, the political dangers that are likely to manifest themselves in a brief time may negate all their efforts.JP Morgan specialists expect that by mid-2019, the USD/ CAD pair will rise to the level of 1.35

.” We follow the truth that there might be difficulties with the ratification of the new trade contract in between Washington and Ottawa due to the split United States Congress and the continuing partial shutdown of the US federal government,”representatives of the monetary institute noted.Meanwhile, foreign exchange strategists Morgan Stanley recommends selling USD/ CAD with a target of 1.28 because the Fed is going to take

a more cautious position.According to them, the disparity between the Fed and Bank of Canada rates, as well as the latter’s desire to raise the rates of interest from the present 1.75%to a neutral level of 2.5-3.5%, ought to support the loonie. However, the Canadian Reserve bank is not likely to act proactively. A minimum of this is evidenced by the fact that the regulator means to bring the rate to a neutral level for a very long time, which does not leave out the presence of a time out. Thus, if the Fed and the Bank of Canada approached it, in the medium term, consolidation of the USD/ CAD set in the range of 1.3-1.36 appears to be the most possible option.The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of significant currency pairs on January 17 888011000 110888 Dear associates. For the currency pair Euro/ Dollar, we anticipate further downward motion after going by the cost of the variety of 1.1375 – 1.1358 and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency set Pound/ Dollar, the cost has provided a regional structure for the top of January 15 and the advancement of which is anticipated after the breakdown of 1.2905. For the currency set Dollar/ Franc, the upward cycle advancement from January 10 is expected to continue after the price passes the series of 0.9930 – 0.9951. For the currency pair Dollar/ Yen, we are presently following the development of the upward structure from January 10 and the level of 108.21 is the essential support. For the currency set Euro/ Yen, the upward movement is anticipated after the breakdown of 125.15 and the level of 123.05 is the key assistance. For the currency pair Pound/ Yen, the cost has set the regional structure on January 15 and the development of which is anticipated after the breakdown of 141.05. Forecast for January 17: Analytical review of H1-scale currency sets: For the currency pair Euro/ Dollar, the essential levels on the H1 scale are 1.1496, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1376, 1.1358, 1.1321 and 1.1291. Here, we continue to follow the development of the down cycle of January 10. We expect the downward movement to continue after the rate passes the range of 1.1376 – 1.1358. In this case, the target is 1.1321. The prospective value for the bottom is thought about the level of 1.1291, upon reaching which we anticipate a rollback to the top. The combined motion is expected in the range of 1.1404- 1.1428 and the breakdown of the latter worth will cause an extended correction. Here, the target is 1.1469 and this level is the crucial assistance for the down structure. The main pattern is the downward cycle of January 10. Trading recommendations: Purchase 1.1406 Take earnings: 1.1426 Purchase 1.1430 Take revenue: 1.1466 Sell: 1.1358 Take revenue: 1.1324 Offer: 1.1320 Take earnings: 1.1294 For the currency set Pound/ Dollar, the essential levels on the H1 scale are 1.3118, 1.3057, 1.2973, 1.2905, 1.2821, 1.2779, 1.2720 and 1.2661. Here, we follow the development of the regional rising structure of January 15. The extension of the upward motion is expected after the breakdown of 1.2905. In this case, the goal is 1.2973 and near this level is the price combination. The breakdown of the level of 1.2973 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3057. The prospective worth for the top is thought about the level of 1.3118, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards. The short-term down movement is possible in the range of 1.2821-1.2779 and the breakdown of the last value will result in an extended correction. Here, the target is 1.2720 and this level is the crucial support for the top. Its breakdown will have to form a down structure. In this case, the prospective target is 1.2661. The primary pattern is the local structure for the top of January 15. Trading recommendations: Purchase: 1.2905 Take earnings: 1.2970 Buy: 1.2975 Take profit: 1.3055 Sell: 1.2820 Take revenue: 1.2780 Sell: 1.2777 Take revenue: 1.2724 For the currency set Dollar/ Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9951, 0.9930, 0.9897, 0.9877 and 0.9848. Here, we continue to follow the advancement of the ascending cycle of January 10. The short-term upward motion is possible in the series of 0.9930- 0.9951 and the breakdown of the latter worth will permit us to expect to relocate to the level of 0.9984, near which we anticipate combination. The prospective worth for the top is considered the level of 1.0034, upon reaching which we anticipate a rollback downwards. The short-term down movement is possible in the series of 0.9897-0.9877 and the breakdown of the latter worth will result in a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9848 and this level is the crucial support for the rising structure. The main trend is the ascending structure of January 10. Trading suggestions: Purchase: 0.9930 Take earnings: 0.9950 Purchase: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9982 Offer: 0.9896 Take revenue: 0.9878 Offer: 0.9875 Take revenue: 0.9850 For the currency set Dollar/ Yen, the crucial levels on the scale of H1 are 109.74, 109.57, 109.27, 109.08, 108.67, 108.49, 108.21 and 107.76. Here, the next targets for the top are figured out from the rising structure on January 10th. The short-term upward motion is possible in the range of 109.08-109.27 and the breakdown of the latter worth ought to be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level 109.57 and in the range of 109.57 -109.74 is the combination. The short-term downward motion is possible in the series of 108.67- 108.50 and the breakdown of the latter worth will result in a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.21 and thislevel is the essential assistance. Its breakdown will result in the development of a downward trend. Here, the objective is 107.76. The primary pattern is the rising structure of January 10. Trading recommendations: Buy: 109.08 Take earnings: 109.25 Buy: 109.29 Take profit: 109.56 Sell: 108.49 Take earnings : 108.23 Sell: 108.18 Take profit: 107.80 For the currency pair Canadian dollar/ Dollar, the crucial levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, the scenario is in equilibrium and in the range of 1.3201-1.3150, we anticipate a short-term downward motion, in addition to consolidation. The possible value for the bottom is thought about the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271-1.3320 and thebreakdown of the latter value willcause a thorough correction. Here, thetarget is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. The primary trend is the equilibrium state of the structure. Trading suggestions: Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320 Buy: 1.3330 Take earnings: 1.3395 Sell: 1.3201 Take earnings: 1.3155 Sell: 1.3145 Take revenue: 1.3070 For the currency set Australian dollar/ Dollar, the essential levels on the H1 scale are 0.7391, 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7238, 0.7180, 0.7152 and 0.7113. Here, we are following the rising structure of January 3. The short-term upward motion is possible in the range of 0.7238 – 0.7270 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a motion to the level of 0.7313, near which we expect debt consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7391 and we anticipate a movement to this level after the breakdown of 0.7315. The combined movement is possible in the series of 0.7180-0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will result in an extended correction. Here, the target is 0.7113 and this level is the essential support for the upward structure. The main trend is the rising structure of January 3. Trading suggestions: Purchase: 0.7238 Take revenue: 0.7270 Buy: 0.7273 Take revenue: 0.7312 Sell: 0.7180 Take earnings: 0.7155 Sell: 0.7150 Take revenue: 0.7120 For the currency set Euro/ Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to follow the increasing structure of January 3. At the minute, the price is in a deep correction . An upward movement is anticipated after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and rate debt consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 125.80 must be accompanied by a noticable upward motion. Here, the objective is 126.70. The possible worth for the top is thought about the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated motion, in addition to a rollback to the top. The short-term downmotion is possible in the variety of 123.74-123.05 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a down structure . In this case, the possible target is 122.03, up to this level, we anticipate clearance of expressed preliminary conditions for the down cycle. The primary pattern is the ascending structure of January 3, the stage of deep correction. Trading recommendations: Purchase: 125.15 Take earnings: 125.76 Purchase: 125.82 Take earnings: 126.70 Offer: 123.70 Take earnings: 123.10 Offer: 123.05 Take profit: 122.10 For the currency pair Pound/ Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.91, 142.82, 142.16, 141.04, 139.49, 138.91, 138.21 and 137.17. Here, we identified the subsequent targets for the top from the local ascending structure on January 15th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 141.04. In this case, the target is 142.16 and in the series of 142.16-142.82 is the cost combination. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 143.91, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 139.49 -138.91 and the breakdown of the latter worth will cause a thorough correction. Here, the goal is 138.21 and this level isthe key assistance for the top. Its breakdown will have a down pattern. Inthis case, the objective is 137.17. The primary pattern is the regional rising structure of January 15. Trading suggestions: Buy: 141.05 Take earnings: 142.05 Buy: 142.16 Take revenue: 142.80 Offer: 139.45 Take profit: 138.93 Offer: 138.89 Take earnings: 138.25 The product has been supplied by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

By | January 17, 2019

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 1.1375 – 1.1358 and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price has issued a local structure for the top of January 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.2905. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the upward cycle development from January 10 is expected to continue after the price passes the range of 0.9930 – 0.9951. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are currently following the development of the upward structure from January 10 and the level of 108.21 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15 and the level of 123.05 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price has set the local structure on January 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 141.05.

Forecast for January 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1496, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1376, 1.1358, 1.1321 and 1.1291. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of January 10. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.1376 – 1.1358. In this case, the target is 1.1321. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1291, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.1404 – 1.1428 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1469 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1406 Take profit: 1.1426

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1466

Sell: 1.1358 Take profit: 1.1324

Sell: 1.1320 Take profit: 1.1294

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3118, 1.3057, 1.2973, 1.2905, 1.2821, 1.2779, 1.2720 and 1.2661. Here, we follow the formation of the local ascending structure of January 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2905. In this case, the goal is 1.2973 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2973 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3057. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3118, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2821 – 1.2779 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2720 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2661.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2905 Take profit: 1.2970

Buy: 1.2975 Take profit: 1.3055

Sell: 1.2820 Take profit: 1.2780

Sell: 1.2777 Take profit: 1.2724

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9951, 0.9930, 0.9897, 0.9877 and 0.9848. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of January 10. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9930 – 0.9951 and the breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect to move to the level of 0.9984, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0034, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9897 – 0.9877 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9848 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9950

Buy: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9982

Sell: 0.9896 Take profit: 0.9878

Sell: 0.9875 Take profit: 0.9850

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 109.74, 109.57, 109.27, 109.08, 108.67, 108.49, 108.21 and 107.76. Here, the next targets for the top are determined from the ascending structure on January 10th. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 109.08 – 109.27 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level 109.57 and in the range of 109.57 – 109.74 is the consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.67 – 108.50 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.21 and this level is the key support. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the goal is 107.76.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.08 Take profit: 109.25

Buy: 109.29 Take profit: 109.56

Sell: 108.49 Take profit: 108.23

Sell: 108.18 Take profit: 107.80

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, the situation is in equilibrium and in the range of 1.3201 – 1.3150, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271 – 1.3320 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the equilibrium state of the structure.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3201 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3145 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7391, 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7238, 0.7180, 0.7152 and 0.7113. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7238 – 0.7270 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.7313, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7391 and we expect a movement to this level after the breakdown of 0.7315.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.7180 – 0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7113 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7238 Take profit: 0.7270

Buy: 0.7273 Take profit: 0.7312

Sell: 0.7180 Take profit: 0.7155

Sell: 0.7150 Take profit: 0.7120

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to follow the rising structure of January 3. At the moment, the price is in a deep correction. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.74 – 123.05 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 122.03, up to this level, we expect clearance of expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 123.05 Take profit: 122.10

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.91, 142.82, 142.16, 141.04, 139.49, 138.91, 138.21 and 137.17. Here, we determined the subsequent targets for the top from the local ascending structure on January 15th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 141.04. In this case, the target is 142.16 and in the range of 142.16 – 142.82 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 143.91, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 139.49 – 138.91 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 138.21 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have a downward trend. In this case, the goal is 137.17.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.05 Take profit: 142.05

Buy: 142.16 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.45 Take profit: 138.93

Sell: 138.89 Take profit: 138.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

GBP/ USD: Pound thinks in Theresa May?

By | January 17, 2019

The situation around Brexit continues to be one of

the main styles of the financial market. On the eve, the British parliamentarians have revealed self-confidence in the nation’s cabinet of ministers headed by Theresa May. Now, the government needs to determine its next steps and to submit a “Fallback” to your house of Commons already on January 21 for the country’s withdrawal from the European Union.

It ought to be noted that the Prime Minister has actually not yet withdrawn from Parliament her variation of the handle the EU and seems to be going to put it back to vote in February. Nevertheless, it is not clear whether the text of the arrangement will be changed and whether Brussels will go on brand-new negotiations with London.

Meanwhile, among the scenarios recommends that the date of initiation of the 50th post of the Lisbon Treaty, and appropriately, the date of exit from the EU can be postponed to a later period.

It is possible that T. May counts precisely on this situation, wanting to win some more time in order to convince parliamentarians to elect her suggested offer.

In spite of the reality that the possibilities of success of this business are not so high, it is essential to recognize that only under the management of the current Prime Minister, London will have the ability to depend on a regulated and organized Brexit. A minimum of, this is evidenced by the characteristics of the British currency, which has actually recently shown remarkable strength.

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Professionals of the financial company Requirement Chartered believe that the pound sterling can get wide support if it is officially announced the extension of Short article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

HSBC specialists, in turn, expect that when it comes to a “soft” Brexit, a “British” may increase against the dollar to $ 1.37, if the nation stays in the EU, as much as $ 1.55, and in the “hard” scenario, by contrast, risks approximately $ 1.10.

The material has actually been offered by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

The resumption of the fall of the marketplaces is not far off

By | January 17, 2019

Formerly, we have not as soon as mentioned that worldwide markets, and with them, investors, are under extreme pressure from an uncertainty factor that has not vanished anywhere. Despite the fact that world reserve banks, firstly, the Fed and the ECB, have started to state, in the case of the European regulator, the desire to start normalization of financial policy, and the United States Reserve bank has actually currently been performing this process over the past couple of years, it seems that they are challenged that the tightening up of financial policies threatens to intensify into a brand-new financial decline, behind which a brand-new crisis looms, will be required to continue to pursue, after all, a soft economic policy.

The current ECB balance sheet information presented clearly indicates that after a loud statement of the end of quantitative easing last December, the regulator’s balance continues to grow. This suggests that the bank continues the procedure of purchasing assets to support a weakening European economy. It appears that our thesis, provided in the other day’s article, that the economy of the eurozone is beginning to lose its strength which in the future might turn into a destructive vicious circle, is starting to come true.

The words of M. Draghi, President of the ECB, that economic development in the eurozone deteriorated more than anticipated, suggest that the regulator will have to continue to pursue the covert redemption of government bonds, pumping up the regional financial system in an attempt to avoid a financial collapse. It ends up, by the same token, that the Central Bank, by its policy of conserving whatever and everyone in the region responsible to it, fell into a trap. The weakening of economic growth in Europe against the background of the very same, but already global, process will again force more incentive measures, which ultimately will put the local economy on a needle of regular monetary injections. It needs to be understood that this process can not last forever, once it ends, which will be the greatest blow to the eurozone economy, the typical unity of Europe. In the future, it will be possible to observe the worst financial crisis, which, in our viewpoint, will stop the task of a joined Europe and cause the disintegration of the eurozone as an economic entity.

As for the instant potential customers, in our opinion, high volatility in the markets will continue, and the procedure of slipping the worldwide economy into a brand-new recession will not stop neither the arrangement between China and the United States on trade, nor Brexit’s approval, nor the pumping of financial systems with liquidity.

Projection of the day:

The currency pair EUR/ USD stays under pressure against the background of the continuing risk of a financial decline in the eurozone. If the pair consolidates listed below the level of 1.1385, it might continue to be up to 1.1345, and after that to 1.1315.

The currency pair AUD/ USD is losing momentum versus the background of high dangers of a continued decrease in China’s economic growth and the world economy as a whole. In this circumstance, under pressure, there are high-yielding currencies, that include the Australian dollar. Offered the negative belief in the market, we can anticipate the set to continue to decrease to 0.7100 after conquering the level of 0.7150.

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The product has been provided by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: Theresa May won another victory. Pound and euro are vulnerable to decline

By | January 17, 2019

The British pound neglected Theresa May’s success yesterday, and the euro continued to decrease gradually against the United States dollar amidst weak essential data on inflation, which binds the hands of the

European Reserve Bank. Excellent Britain After a disastrous vote on Brexit in the British Parliament, Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn initiated a vote of no self-confidence due to the ineffectiveness of the government in accepting a British exit from the EU. As it ended up being known, British Prime Minister Theresa May yesterday won this vote. May won with 325 elect and 306 against. Nevertheless, the market response was very restrained on this news, and GBP/ USD stayed haggled in the side channel. Now the British Prime Minister has till January 21 to prepare an alternative variation of the Brexit offer, because it is clear that the old version will not precisely pass the parliament even on the second ballot.

Many experts and politicians expect that ultimately the UK’s exit date, scheduled for March 29, will be altered, providing the government more time to negotiate a number of concessions with agents of the European Union.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/ USD currency pair, for the new powerful impulse growth, a development of the resistance location of 1.2890-1.2900 is needed, which will result in the development of a new trend with the upgrading of regular monthly highs of 1.3020 and 1.3130. If in the near future the bulls fail to get above the variety of 1.2890-1.2900, a down correction in the trading instrument is likely, which will return the set to the lows of 1.2750 and 1. 2620.

U.S.A.

The data, which came out the other day in the US, did not put pressure on the US dollar, which keeps a benefit in a pair with the euro.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the expense of imported items in the United States declined this December. The fall was because of lower oil prices.

Therefore, import prices in December fell by 1.0% compared with the previous month, while economists had actually anticipated costs in December to fall by 1.5%. As I noted above, the decline is totally due to oil rates, which in December fell by 11.6% after falling 16% a month previously. Excluding energy, import prices rose by 0.3%. Compared to the very same duration of the previous year, import rates fell 0.6%.

Information on the mood of house builders in the United States likewise did not draw in the attention of traders.

According to a report by the National Association of Home Builders NAHB, the housing market index in January 2019 increased to 58 points from 56 points in December, while economic experts predicted that in January, the index would be 56 points. The NAHB kept in mind that the state of mind of homebuilders has actually improved due to a minor decline in home mortgage rates for United States locals.

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The other day another agent of the Fed spoke. Esther George said that the Fed must be more patient in raising interest rates to avoid getting too hot and extending economic development, and recent market volatility is a factor in the spotlight that should cause a pause in the rate walking cycle.

As for the technical image of the EUR/ USD set, the bears are trying to resume the downward movement in the market after the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to go back to the game. A break of 1.1375 may result in a bigger reduction in dangerous properties with the upgrading of 1.1340 and 1.1310 lows. In the case of another incorrect breakdown in the location of 1.1375, bulls can willingly return, which will result in an effective upward impulse with a test and a development of the intermediate resistance of 1.1415 and the main goal of upgrading the maximum of 1.1450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. January 16. Outcomes of the day. Cancel Brexit, Brexit transfer, new Brexit settlements?

By | January 17, 2019

4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 94p – 73p – 156p – 112p – 246p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 136p (106p).

The British pound sterling on Wednesday, January 16th, is not moving. Traders, with such a sensation, do not understand what to do next. On the one hand, the other day, a fateful decision was made for Britain. On the other hand, the scenario with Brexit did not become clearer. It only became clear that the UK is not exactly leaving the EU according to the Chequers plan. Nevertheless, whether it will leave the European Union at all and under what conditions it is now is unidentified. Today on the agenda in the British Parliament is the concern of distrust of Theresa May, started by the leader of the main opposition celebration (Labour), Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May will be dismissed if the majority of deputies vote in favor. Our company believe that this is exactly what will occur. Again, it is not understood how traders will react to this event. From our viewpoint, the resignation of Theresa May will offer an opportunity for brand-new negotiations with the EU, maybe more efficient and advantageous for the United Kingdom, along with an opportunity for the nation not to leave the EU at all. Thus, Theresa May’s resignation could provoke … the growth of the British currency. In any case, it is best to await the night and learn how the dispute in Parliament will end. Inflation, published today in the UK, did not cause any response from the marketplace, as it represented the anticipated value – 2.1% y/y in December. In his speech today, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, noted that the loss of Theresa May and the fortifying of the British pound suggests that markets believe in minimizing the chances of a disorderly exit of the country from the EU.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency set remains in an upward trend on the eve of a brand-new vote in the British Parliament. Once again, we do not advise opening any positions in the existing situation, as it is related to increased risks. The pair can again be extremely unpredictable in the next couple of hours.

The exact same applies to sell orders. Any positions you can open, familiar with the increased threats and always positioning protective Stop Loss orders.

In addition to the technical photo, fundamental information and the timing of their release need to likewise be taken into consideration.

Description of illustration:

Ichimoku Indication:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen– blue line.

Senkou span a– light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B– light purple dotted line.

Chikou span– green line.

Bollinger Bands Sign:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been offered by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com