EUR/USD. January 15. Outcomes of the day. Traders have actually concentrated on the conference of the Parliament of Great Britain

By | January 16, 2019

4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days(high-low): 63p – 121p – 85p – 83p – 31p.

Typical amplitude for the last 5 days: 76p (88p).

The EUR/USD currency set on Tuesday, January 15, a day that might be essential for the UK, Theresa May and the present federal government, and is just really essential for the EU, continued to decline a few days earlier. In the United States trading session, the European currency started to grow. All these motions can be entirely unrelated to the night vote in the British Parliament. We have already written numerous times about what decisions can be made by the UK federal government. We will not repeat. From our viewpoint, the May prepare for Brexit will not be embraced. And in this case brand-new political peripeteias will begin with a possible 2nd referendum, brand-new settlements with the EU. If the parliament authorizes the Chequers strategy, then it will be a frank surprise for everyone, and particularly for the euro currency and the pound sterling. In this case, both European currencies can get significant support. Actually in an hour, the speech of the Chairman of the European Reserve Bank, Mario Draghi, will begin, which in his speech may discuss the subject of monetary policy and the subject of Brexit. In the course of the day, not a single essential macroeconomic report was released either in America or in the European Union. Thus, in the last hours ahead of the conference of the Parliament of Great Britain, it is recommended not to intensify the scenario and not to risk fruitless. From a technical viewpoint, the image requires to be clarified, given that a brand-new “dead cross” has been formed, however the rate failed to combine listed below the important line. In general, the very best choice for traders is to remain out of the market till the final Brexit decision appears in the media.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Formally, shorts are now relevant in small lots for the purpose of the assistance level of 1.1386. A Stop Loss order is required, along with increased caution in the coming hours.

Long positions can be considered not earlier than the combination of the price above the Kijun-sen line with the very first target of 1.1526, and after that– to 1.1560. In this case, the effort on the instrument will once again fall under the hands of the bulls.

In addition to the technical photo, essential information and the timing of their release need to also be considered.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Sign:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen– blue line.

Senkou span a– light brown dotted line.

Senkou period B– light purple dotted line.

Chikou period– green line.

Bollinger Bands Sign:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and pie chart with white bars in the indication window.The product has been provided by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Brexit’s Night: the main situations

By | January 16, 2019

The centerpiece of the day is a historical vote in the British Parliament, where deputies will make their verdict on the proposed deal. Most professionals and currency strategists speak about the high probability of Theresa May being defeated, regardless of particular optimistic signals. According to the currently developed “tradition”, on the eve of a crucial occasion on the market, many reports appeared that frequently opposed each other: some sources said that the most influential members of the Conservative Party chose to support the deal, while other insiders assured reporters the opposite. Considering the whole background of the concern, hesitation still prevails in the market, which, nevertheless, does not avoid the pound from keeping within the 28th figure.

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The British currency yesterday got an impulse for its development on two realities. According to many sources, some opponents of Theresa May (amongst the Conservatives) started to question their position, and, therefore, today can vote for the approval of the agreement. This is a parliamentary association of eurosceptics-Conservatives (European Research study Group), which includes nearly 50 deputies. The issue is that there is no combined position among them: even if one of the prominent representatives of this group chose to support the offer, this does not mean that May can rely on the approval of all the others. Nonetheless, the market jumped at such reports, after which the need for British currency increased.

In addition, the pound got some assistance from Brussels, nevertheless, in my opinion – of an extremely dubious nature. The reality is that the European Union sent an open letter to the British parliament yesterday, discussing its method to Brexit’s main unresolved problem – the program for controlling the border in between Ireland and Northern Ireland after the nation’s withdrawal from the Alliance. The letter did not have the main thing – not even a tip of the arrangement of legal assurances to Britain regarding the time frame of the backstop. Brussels limited itself to the phrase that the European Union would not use this routine “beyond the strictly essential period”. This is a rather vague wording, which, among other things, has no legal force. The European Union has when again confirmed that it is ready to extend the transitional period so that the parties could have time to prepare an equally advantageous arrangement on future cooperation.

Yesterday, Theresa Might “provided” the EU’s appeal to the British Parliament and once again tried to convince the deputies that there was no alternative to the proposed deal. In addition, she somewhat tightened her rhetoric, specifying that in the event of a failed vote, Brexit may not occur, and the nation would “fall apart” due to a severe political crisis.

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Despite all the above factors, almost everybody in the market is confident that the deal in its existing type will not discover assistance among most of British deputies. We are not discussing the probability of victory/defeat, but the possible scale of today’s defeat. So, according to experts, if the variety of challengers of the offer will exceed 100-120 deputies, the May federal government is likely to resign (as an option– Labour will put to the vote a vote of no confidence in the prime minister). If the variety of opponents fluctuates around 20-50, the government will still have an opportunity to approve the deal during the second vote.

Let me advise you that according to the just recently embraced norm, the Cabinet of Ministers should provide the Parliament with a “plan B” within three days, that is, a new prepare for the country’s exit from the EU. If the deal undergoes considerable modifications, then Brexit will still have to be postponed for numerous months in order for London to collaborate the developments with Brussels. And although May is unconditionally versus holding off the “deadline”, in this case there will be no option – either a chaotic situation or a postponement of the release date. By the way, this is among the most bothersome choices, as the European Union has actually repeatedly stated that it is not set to revise the contract reached and sit down at the negotiating table again.

There are two more scenarios, the execution of which can not be omitted. These are early parliamentary elections and a brand-new referendum. By the way, according to a number of experts, Theresa May herself can start early elections if the deputies do not support the proposed offer en masse. If the prime minister’s proposal is supported by two-thirds of the Parliament, the country enters a brand-new election, while Brexit date will most likely be postponed to a later date (July or September). The “sub-item” of this circumstance is the option of revealing a vote of no self-confidence in the prime minister. Laborites have long been threatening to put this question to the vote – actually last weekend, the celebration leader stated that “this will happen very soon.” Most likely – right after an unsuccessful vote or after disapproval of “Fallback”.

It is worth noting that if the Cabinet of Ministers will be suspicious, then there are also a number of circumstances. Over the next two weeks, the Parliament needs to (or rather, can) express confidence in the alternative structure of the government proposed by the Conservatives (simply put, just the replacement of the prime minister, but not of the cabinet ministers). If this does not occur, then unique elections will be scheduled, which will be held no earlier than in 25 days. The Parliament might “alter its mind” and, within the framework of the aforementioned two weeks, lend self-confidence to the Theresa May federal government – then the prime minister will continue her work. There are more not likely choices: a Conservative minority federal government (however with a various prime minister), a coalition government, or a federal government formed by the Labour Celebration.

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Well, in the end-a new referendum. This choice was unconditionally rejected by Theresa May, however if the government is dismissed, her opinion will be advisory in nature. It deserves noting that a duplicated referendum is rather tough to justify from a legal viewpoint: for this, it is required to make modifications to numerous laws simultaneously (on political celebrations, elections, referendum, etc.). In addition, for a brand-new plebiscite, it will need a different piece of legislation, with the written conditions and terms. At the minute, this is the most unlikely alternative, although it can not be left out.

Thus, today for lots of traders there will be a sleepless night. At about 6:00 pm (London time) Theresa May will speak in the British parliament with a “parting word”, followed by conversation and voting for the draft deal. It is hard to say under what circumstance further events will develop – each of the above choices can life.The product has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

“Authorities” placed on the British pound

By | January 15, 2019

It will take a bulk of the votes of the lawmakers so that Theresa May’s unpopular Brexit contract will be approved. If the document is declined by 100 people, it will increase the risks, in particular, the danger of enhancing the opposition and early elections will increase, which will result in a drop in the pound. Nevertheless, the sterling in this situation has the chance to resist, considering that the market will follow the chances of the British prime minister to the second vote. This viewpoint is shared by international strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The agency has released the views of the most experienced experts on the likely outcome of a meaningful vote and the potential response of the pound. Credit Agricole If there are 100 votes or less versus the contract, this can lead to debt consolidation of sterling. With a greater number of votes versus in conjunction with a vote of no self-confidence from the Labor Party, the pound may need to part with recent conquests. In the case of a loss of Theresa May with a margin of 100 or more votes, the pair GBP/ USD will reach$ 1.25. Credit Agricole has an offer targeting$1.39 for half a year. Banking experts are confident that the British pound will quickly start an uptrend. Mizuho Bank The bank has little faith in the total defeat

of May, while allowing for this advancement. Over 220 votes versus a pound fall to$1.2250. With a less considerable margin of 20– 100 votes, the sterling is most likely to leap to$1.3350. If the project is declined by 20 people, then the British currency is waiting on a rally with a potential yield of$1.35. Danske Bank The rejection of the draft contract by 100 or more votes is already an unfavorable for the pound. The

bank does not

think that Teresa May will get approval from Parliament. Further,”we will get in uncharted area,”professionals composed. Perhaps anything: the 2nd referendum, the second vote. The chances of the set GBPUSD bank remained in the range of$1.25–$1.30 up until further explanation of the circumstance. Rabobank “Given that the EU does not show any indications and determination to make concessions, May will most likely require a loss with a small margin in order, as the

market thinks, to win the second round, possibly less than 50 votes,” experts compose. This can reassure a pound, which will increase to $1.30. Defeat by a margin of 200 votes will not allow the British prime minister to keep the lead. Labor’s far-left government

will put pressure on sterling, and GBP/ USD threats being up to$1.15– $1.20. The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

German economy – a new headache for the euro

By | January 15, 2019

The anticipated downturn in the growth rate of the German economy struck the euro. The single European currency fell on concerns about a wider decline in Europe. The area’s largest economy is experiencing a cooling of the global economy and the impacts of trade disputes caused by the policies of United States President Donald Trump.The German

economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2018, the lowest in 5 years. Right after the release of GDP information, the euro fell to a five-day low of $ 1.1423. The first worrying “bell” for the euro was the unanticipated drop in commercial production in Germany, which raised concerns about the ECB’s strategies to stop promoting. There is an opinion that, although these figures remain in line with expectations, the bleak image as an entire strengthens the doubts that the ECB will raise interest rates in basic in 2019.

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In the short term, the greatest risk for Europe and the euro is the uncoordinated Brexit, which can occur at the most unsuitable moment for the German economy. For the same reason, it is required to closely monitor the sterling on the eve of a vote in parliament.The dollar is growing

and general looks extremely attractive against this background, regardless of current losses caused by worries of an international downturn and expectations of a time out in the Fed’s rate hike this year.The product has been provided by InstaForex Company -www.instaforex.com

Pound sterling pending an essential vote on Brexit

By | January 15, 2019

Today, British parliamentarians will require to make a decision that can identify the situation for the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. The further characteristics of the British currency depend upon the voting results in the House of Commons.

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The concern of whether the country’s Prime Minister Theresa May can get parliamentary approval for her expense on Brexit terms or not is still open.

The additional dynamics of the British currency depend on the ballot leads to your home of Commons.

There are numerous options for the advancement of events.

1. Theresa May wins.

If the parliament approves the draft deal promoted by the head of federal government, the pound will rise in price versus the dollar, as a result of which, the GBP/USD set will easily reach the level of 1.31 and after that continue to rally to 1.35.

2. Theresa May will lose a minimum margin (50 or fewer votes).

This result is most likely to signal that the position of the Prime Minister is not as weak as it is presently thought, and she has enough support in the federal government to try to press the deal once again.

It is not excluded that Theresa May, herself, will consider this a triumph and will continue negotiations with the EU on the system of “bet stop”.

In this case, the pound can strengthen to $1.30, but not more.

3. The head of the cabinet will lose by a big margin.

Losing 100 or more votes will be a serious difficulty for Theresa May, and she will need to extend the 50th post of the Lisbon Treaty or withdraw Britain from the EU without an offer. No matter what the next actions of the Prime Minister will be, the defeat of May will provoke a sharp drop in the pound currency exchange rate, which will press the GBP/USD set below 1.25. The further fate of the British currency will depend upon how quickly the head of government reveals a backup strategy and how strongly the opposition demands holding early parliamentary elections or a repeat Brexit referendum.

The material has actually been provided by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Gold Subdued As Equities Rebound

By | January 15, 2019

Gold prices were slightly lower on Tuesday as equity markets made headway on expectations of fewer rates of interest walkings this year by the Federal Reserve and amid hopes that China would unveil more procedures to support its deteriorating economy.

Spot gold was partially lower at $1,288.84 per ounce while U.S. gold futures were down 0.2 percent at $1,288.90 an ounce.

International danger sentiment improved rather after Citigroup revenues beat Street views and China vowed to keep monetary policy stable to support growth.

Chinese financing ministry stated that it would execute bigger tax and cost cuts to help reduce burdens for little firms and producers.

Independently, Chinese reserve bank said that it would stick to its sensible financial policy to support a slowing economy.

The dollar held weak on heightened expectations the Fed will halt its monetary tightening up policy this year amid increasing risks of a sharper financial slowdown.

The product has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Oil Costs Rise Amid Supply Cuts

By | January 15, 2019

Oil costs rose on Tuesday as supply cuts by producer club OPEC and Russia along with declining U.S. rig counts bolstered belief.

Worldwide benchmark Brent crude climbed up 0.90 percent to $59.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) unrefined futures were up 0.85 percent at $50.94 per barrel.

OPEC members, along with several non-OPEC nations like Russia, agreed in late 2018 to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day in order to stem a sinking market and support their own export-dependent economies.

In the United States, U.S. energy firms cut four oil rigs in the week to January 11, bringing the total count down to 873 from a peak of 888 in 2018.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei business daily reported today that Japan anticipates to reboot oil imports from Iran, which were suspended due to U.S. sanctions, as early as this month.

After importing no Iranian oil for a fourth month in December, South Korea is likely to begin purchasing Iranian crude this month or next.

U.K. bank HSBC cut its 2019 Brent cost projection by $16 to $64/bbl, reflecting more powerful assumptions on U.S. oil supply strength and unpredictabilities over the pace of global oil demand growth.

The material has been offered by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

German 2018 Growth Weakest In 5 Years

By | January 15, 2019

Germany’s economy grew for a ninth year in 2018, but at the slowest pace in five years, largely driven by domestic demand, preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Tuesday.

Gross domestic product rose a price-adjusted and chain-linked 1.5 percent from 2017, when it expanded 2.2 percent. The pace exceeded the average 1.2 percent growth rate of the last ten years. Growth was the weakest since 2013, when the economy expanded 0.5 percent.

On a price and calendar-adjusted and chain-linked basis, GDP grew 1.5 percent following 2.5 percent expansion in 2017.

The growth rate was the weakest in three years after a 1.5 percent expansion in 2015.

In 2018, household spending rose 1 percent and government final consumption increased 1.1 percent.

Gross fixed capital formation rose 4.8 percent and exports increased 2.4 percent. Imports climbed 3.4 percent. The balance of net trade deducted 0.2 percentage points from the German GDP growth.

Data also showed that the general government surplus was EUR 59.2 billion in 2018versus EUR 34.0 billion in 2017.

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