EUR/USD. A pair at the crossroads – either 1.1620 or 1.1460

By | October 17, 2018

The United States stock exchange started to recover its positions, favorably affecting the characteristics of the dollar index. The other day, the stock exchange closed with development– the Dow Jones grew by 2.1%, the S&P 500 index increased by 2.15%, and the NASDAQ Composite– by 2.89%. In general, shares increased in cost in the sphere of healthcare, customer services and innovations. In the context of the foreign exchange market, the really fact that the stock market grew is crucial, especially


after the events of last week.< img width ="450"src=" "alt =" fH2zZU1SM9MFAbZojtXjQsOtQRdRjluT4Y4NORqo "/ > Let me advise you that the stock markets not only in the US, however in a variety of Asian nations at the end of the last 5 days have slumped rather sharply, triggering panic among traders. Donald Trump managed to blame the Federal Reserve, whose members, in his viewpoint, “went nuts”, raising the rate of interest. Well, as a “bonus” to all this really weak data on inflation in the United States was launched, which matched the dismal photo. As an outcome, the marketplace began to question that the Fed will accelerate the rate of monetary policy tightening up next year– and the possibility of a rate hike in December fell from 82% to 75%.

The future habits of the stock market was of excellent importance for traders of the currency market, and especially for dollar bulls. A regression of the collapse or a more decline would show a trend that the Fed might no longer neglect. But, obviously, the situation was settled– a minimum of at the minute. And considering that the foreign exchange market, as a guideline, lives “today”, the dollar index suspended its decrease and settled at the borders of 95 points. The yield of 10-year treasuries, which straight provoked the collapse of stock exchange, began to decline gradually, although at the moment still exceeds the three percent limit.

Simply put, the marketplace has become more cautious of the dollar (compared to the period of September), but at the same time the greenback has actually not lost its appeal, as the possibilities of a December boost are still high. The weekly CFTC reports validate the continued demand for the US currency, while speculators continue to eliminate the euro.

Such circumstances do not enable the EUR/USD to overcome the essential resistance level of 1.1620, although the bulls of the pair have consistently checked the 16th figure in recent days. However even the weakened dollar was stronger than the euro, which has “luggage issues” no less: from the long narrative on the budget of Italy, ending with an uncertain prospect of Brexit. Therefore, the pair is slowly moving into the power of bearish belief– however if we consider the timeframes above the daily one, then the EUR/USD remains in a wide variety flat, in between 1.1460 and 1.1620.


The occasions of the next couple of days( including today’s) can cause a strong volatility in the set, provoking a relocation beyond the above rate limits. Of all, we are talking about Brexit, whose fate will be chosen today in Brussels. On the eve of the EU summit, political leaders voiced opposing views on the possible outcome of the meeting– some ensured journalists that “the offer was practically approved”, while others advised to get ready for a “tough” Brexit. This polarity of opinions has developed an intrigue that will be solved literally today or tomorrow. If settlements stop working once again, the euro will follow the pound, tumbling down. It is sensible to assume that in an alternative scenario, the EUR/USD set will have the ability to evaluate the mark of 1.1620 once again.

Regardless of the outcome of the EU top, the problem of the Italian budget likewise hangs over the euro. At the start of the week, the head of the European Commission got the draft spending plan of Italy with a deficit of 2.4%. Let me remind you that formally, the Italians did not go beyond the allowable standard in the EU, developed at the level of three percent, but at the exact same time violated their own promises, according to which the deficit was to be at the level of 0.8%. Now ought to be followed by the main response of the European Commission to the actions of Rome.

Probably, Brussels will decline this draft budget, unless the agents of Italy persuade their coworkers at the EU summit of the opposite (which is unlikely). Otherwise, Rome will have to settle the budget and reconcile it with the EU management till completion of November. It is likely that the modification of the document, the Italian authorities will still compromise, as in this case, political duty is largely shifted to the shoulders of Brussels. This is just a presumption that may not be realized.


In any case, the European currency is now under pressure from 2 scenarios– on the one hand Brexit, on the other– Italy. The resolution of among the issues will allow the bulls of the EUR/USD set to get in the 16th figure once again, having evaluated the resistance levels for strength. Otherwise, the set will go back to the bottom of the 14th figure.The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company –

EUR/USD h4. Choices for the development of motion 17.10-31.10.2018. Analysis of APLs & & ZUP

By | October 17, 2018

Minute(h4)Euro vs United States Dollar Previous review from 03.10.2018 18: 21 UTC +3. ____________________ Further development of the movement of the single European currency EUR/USD in the duration 17.09-31.10.2018 will depend upon the instructions of

the breakdown of the

1/2 Average Line channel borders(1.1510


1.1615) of the Minuette operational scale. The layout of the choices for movement within the 1/2ML channel of the Minuette operating scale exists in the animated chart. ____________________ The possibility of upward motion(buy )If the

resistance level 1.1615(upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette)with a subsequent break above the upper border of the channel 1/2 Mean Line(1.1630)fork operational scale Minute and ISL38.2.(1.1640)-> advancement of the motion of EUR/USD to the zone equilibrium(1.1640< -> 1.1700< -> 1.1755)fork operational scale Minuette.Details are shown on the animated chart. ____________________ The prospect of the down motion(sell) The breakdown of the assistance level of 1.1535 (lower boundary of the channel 1/2 Mean Line Minuette <) -> the option of continuing the down motion of the EUR/USD to targets -> lower limit(1.1510

)channel 1/2 Median Line Minute ceiling of ISL38.2 (1.1460

)equilibrium zone of the fork of the functional scale Minute regional low of 1.1432 control line LTL Minuette( 1.1400 )with the possibility of reaching the typical line (> 1.1375) Typical Line Minute <.> Details look at the animated chart. ____________________ The evaluation is made without taking into consideration trading sessions of the main monetary centers and is not a guide to action (putting orders to “sell “or”buy

“). ZUP and Andrews’Pitchfork(terms, concepts, specifications).


Materials for the study of analysis ZUP & APL’s.

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EURUSD: The profession of the present Fed Chairman Powell is under threat. The Fed posture a risk to the United States economy.

By | October 17, 2018

If earlier the United States president did not get personal, in the other day’s interview for


Fox Company, Donald Trump chose to alter his concepts. We are talking about the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, along with some representatives of the committee. The Fed presents a danger to the American economy Trump said that the Fed’s actions posture a hazard to the United States economy, as it raises interest rates too rapidly. The United States President also drew attention to the reality that the Fed is too independent, straight hinting that in the near future this scenario can alter dramatically. Donald Trump also stated that he does not truly like what Fed Chairman Powell does, as

well as a number of people in the United States central bank. Such declarations by the United States President were made for the first time considering that Trump took workplace. Representatives of the Fed have repeatedly kept in mind the importance of the independence status of the committee, but, apparently, whatever pertains to an end eventually.

The main issue now for the US President is to prevent a slowdown in financial growth, which will take down a lot of other financial signs and trigger a great deal of discontent. And along the method is the Federal Reserve, which continues to raise rates of interest, fearing overheating of the nationwide economy and a sharp dive in inflation, which in turn slows the circulation of low-cost cash to the market, contributing to the stimulation of economic growth.

The speech of Mary Daly, the brand-new head of the San Francisco Fed, was rather foreseeable.

Daly said that the United States economy is not overheated or cooled, and the Fed’s task is to preserve this level. Of the advantages, Daly kept in mind that the US has an extremely quick GDP growth, the labor market is at its peak, and inflation is near the target of 2%.

Daly also drew attention to the fact that it makes good sense for the Fed to gradually raise rate of interest, however did not state how she would vote at the November conference of the Federal Free Market Committee.

United States Essential Data

Yesterday afternoon, a variety of data was published, which did not allow the euro to break through above crucial resistance levels.

According to the report of the United States Federal Reserve, commercial production in the US in September this year again increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Economic experts had actually anticipated production growth of 0.2 percent in September. The strongest growth remained in the mining sector, which acquired 0.5% in September.


The confidence indication of United States construction business grew in October. According to the National Association of Home Builders, the real estate market index increased by one point to 68 points in October. Economists had anticipated the real estate market index to be 67 points in September.

High demand for housing versus the background of a progressive rise in the expense of borrowing, as well as good financial development encourage builders. The indications are adversely affected by costs, which continue to update the highs.

When it comes to the technical photo of the EUR/USD pair, it has actually not altered.

The result of the bears is a go back to the level of 1.1570, which is now necessary to keep. If this is done, the pressure on risky properties will stay, which will cause the test and the breakdown of the lower limit of 1.1535 with a sell-off in the location of 1.1490. If buyers return to the level of 1.1570, we can expect a second wave of growth of the EUR/USD with the breakdown of the ceiling of 1.1605 and a big increase to the high of 1.1650.

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Oil Ends Dramatically Lower As Supply Boosts

By | October 17, 2018

Crude oil futures decreased dramatically on Wednesday, after main data from the Energy Details Administration showed unrefined stockpiles to have actually risen larger than anticipated last week.

The data showed domestic crude stockpiles increased by a larger than expected 6.5 million barrels in the week ended October 12. With last week’s boost, U.S. crude stockpiles have risen for 4 straight weeks now.

The EIA report even more stated that fuel stockpiles fell by 2 million barrels recently, while distillate stockpiles declined by 800,000 barrels.

Petroleum futures for November delivery ended down $2.17, or 3%, at $69.75 a barrel, the most affordable settlement in a month. On Tuesday, petroleum futures wound up $0.14, or 0.2%, at $71.92 a barrel.

On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a decline of 2.1 million barrels in unrefined inventories.

The EIA data has revealed that oil stockpiles have increased recently despite a drop in production due to cyclone Michael.

Stress over Saudi Arabia have actually reduced as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the kingdom assured a “transparent examination” into the disappearance and alleged killing of a prominent journalist.

However, traders seem betting on a likely drop in crude demand in the near term due to the impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade disagreement on the international economy.

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Treasuries Close Lower Following Release Of Fed Minutes

By | October 17, 2018

After ending the previous session approximately flat, treasuries moved to the drawback throughout the trading day on Wednesday.

Bond rates revealed a lack of instructions in morning trading prior to moving firmly into unfavorable area in the afternoon. Consequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves reverse of its cost, rose by 2.3 basis indicate 3.179 percent.

The lower nearby treasuries came after the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September financial policy meeting, which revealed the reserve bank continues to favor a “gradual method” to raising interest rates.

The evaluation that the “gradual method” remains proper comes as the meeting individuals usually judged that the economy was evolving about as expected.

The Fed argued the “gradual approach” would balance the risk of raising rates too rapidly, causing a downturn in the economy, and raising rates too gradually, causing inflation above the central bank’s 2 percent goal.

Looking ahead, the minutes said a couple of conference participants anticipated rates would need to become modestly restrictive for a time.

A number of individuals likewise determined it would be required to temporarily raise rates above the longer-run level in order to decrease the risk of a sustained overshooting of the Fed’s inflation target.

A couple of individuals indicated they would not favor embracing a limiting policy position in the absence of clear signs of an overheating economy and rising inflation.

Throughout the meeting, the Fed decided to raise rates by a quarter point for a 3rd time this year to 2 to 2.25 percent and projection another rate walking prior to the end of the year. The reserve bank’s forecasts likewise indicated 3 rate hikes in 2019.

The Fed’s evaluation that the “progressive method” to raising rates stays suitable comes even as President Donald Trump has actually repeatedly attacked the reserve bank for hiking rates too rapidly.

Trump continued his attack on the Federal Reserve in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday, calling the central bank the “greatest risk” to his presidency.

Traders mainly shook off the release of a report from the Commerce Department revealing a much bigger than expected pullback in housing starts in the month of September.

The Commerce Department said housing starts toppled by 5.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.201 million in September after surging up by 7.1 percent to a revised rate of 1.268 million in August.

Financial experts had expected real estate starts to pull back by about 3.5 percent to a rate of 1.237 million from the 1.282 million initially reported for the previous month.

The report likewise showed an unforeseen decline in building licenses, which fell by 0.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.241 million in September after moving by 4.1 percent to a revised 1.249 million in August.

Building permits, an indicator of future real estate demand, had actually been anticipated to jump by about 4.1 percent to a rate of 1.280 million from the 1.229 million originally reported for the previous month.

Trading on Thursday might be affected by reaction to reports on weekly unemployed claims, Philadelphia-area production activity and leading financial signs.

Bond traders are likewise most likely to watch on the Treasury Department’s announcement of the details of next week’s auctions of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes.

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Turkey Retail Sales Growth Slows For Fourth Month

By | October 17, 2018

Turkey’s retail sales growth slowed sharply in August reflecting a decline in non-food sales, figures from Turkstat showed Wednesday.

The retail sales volume at constant prices grew a calendar-adjusted 1.3 percent year-on-year in August, after rising 2.8 percent in July.

Sales growth of food, tobacco and beverages eased to 4.9 percent, while non-food sales except automotive fuel sales dropped 0.5 percent.

The retail sales turnover at current prices grew 20.3 percent on an annual basis, which was slower than July’s 20.9 percent increase.

Month-on-month, the retail sales volume grew 0.4 percent and turnover rose 2.5 percent on a seasonal and calendar-adjusted basis in August.

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EUR/ USD: a trend change is coming, as reserve banks are actively buying euros

By | October 17, 2018

According to Derek Halpenny, head of the European department for the research study of the worldwide markets of MUFG, the increase in the volume of purchases of the single European

currency from the central banks indicates an early change of pattern in EUR/ USD.”Aggressive purchases of the euro by central banks generally take place during the formation of the base with the subsequent development of upward characteristics. This was already observed in the 2nd quarter of 2010 and in the same duration of 2012,” the analyst stated.

“Likewise, regulators were active throughout the development of substantial lows in the very first quarter of 2015 and at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. The IMF information on the structure of foreign exchange reserves indicate that then the volume of purchases of the euro by banks was nearly 3 times greater than the typical value for the period considering that 1999,” he added.

“In addition, the following factors play in favor of enhancing the bullish belief on the euro. Initially, based on the effective exchange rate, the European currency looks somewhat underestimated, while the American is miscalculated. Secondly, the marketplace has mainly taken into consideration the tightening of financial policy in the United States. At the very same time, in assessments concerning the prospects for the decrease of incentive measures in the eurozone, investors have recently been very careful. Third, a beneficial technical picture is taking shape. August ended with the formation of the “hammer” figure, and the September advancement above the July highs functioned as a signal to purchase euros. Regardless of the truth that the EUR/ USD pair then slipped again, it has not lost its significance,” said D. Halpenny.The expert predicts that the euro against the dollar will reach 1.18 by the end of this year, 1.20 in the very first quarter of 2019, and 1.24 in the second.The product has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business

GBP/ USD: prepare for the American session on October 17. The pound falls on weak data on inflation in the UK

By | October 17, 2018

To open long positions on GBP/ USD, you need: The purchasers stopped working to get above the resistance level of 1.3189 in the first half of the day, and weak information on the customer rate index in the UK caused the sale of the pound. The assistance area of 1.3125 made it through on the first test, nevertheless, the sellers broke it from the 2nd time. Currently, it is best to expect long positions after the update of this week’s low around 1.3083, or after returning and fixing at the resistance level of 1.3144, which will result in a rapid upward correction of the pound to the area of 1.3189, where I advise fixing the earnings.

To open brief positions on GBP/ USD, you require:

As long as trading is carried out listed below the resistance level of 1.3144, the pressure on the pound will continue. The main objective of sellers stays a minimum of today at 1.3083, where I suggest repairing the revenues. At any time, the results of the next Brexit settlements can be released, so that we do not forget to position stop orders, considering that the volatility of the pound may increase considerably. When it comes to an upward correction to brief positions, you can once again return on an incorrect breakdown from the resistance of 1.3144 or to the rebound from 1.3189.

Sign signals:

Moving Averages

The pair has repaired listed below the moving average, which indicates the development of a drop.

Bollinger bands

The lower limit of the Bollinger Bands sign was broken, which led to the sale of the pound. As a guideline for sellers, when it comes to a correction of a pound up, we can think about the typical border of the sign in the region of 1.3165.


Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) thirty days – green
  • MACD: quick EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR/ USD: prepare for the US session on October 17. Inflation information did not help the European currency

By | October 17, 2018

To open long positions on EUR/ USD, you require: Weak information on inflation in the euro area, which remained the same last month, did not allow euro buyers to get out of the resistance level of 1.1569, which caused a decrease and support test of 1.1534. If the bulls handle to form a false test there and return to this level in the 2nd half of the day, we can anticipate a repeat test of the resistance level of 1.1569. If there is no rapid development from this range, I recommend to postpone long positions in EUR/ USD up until the upgrade of the minimum of 1.1490, which can be accomplished on the Fed’s procedures.

To open short positions on EUR/ USD, you need:

The sellers handled to form an incorrect breakdown at the level of 1.1569 and did not let the set go higher, which resulted in a decline in the euro in the very first half of the day. Throughout the very first test of support for 1.1534, a minor upward correction can be observed, however a duplicated test throughout the day will result in a breakdown of this location, which will be a signal for the extension of EUR/ USD decrease with a minimum of 1.1490 and 1.1434, where I recommend fixing the profits.

Sign signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is carried out under the 30 and 50-day average, which shows the development of a down trend in the euro.

Bollinger bands

The breakdown of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator resulted in a boost simply put positions in euros, which makes it possible to rely on the renewal of weekly lows.


Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) one month – green
  • MACD: quick EMA 12, sluggish EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20

The product has been provided by InstaForex Company –