The development of customer rates in June in the US totaled up to 0.2%, this outcome was 1 point higher than the June value and coincided with the forecasts. Inflation development at an annualized rate of 2.94%, initially look, such a trend should be thought about positive in the middle of expectations of a boost in the Fed rate at a meeting on September 26. At the minute, the possibility of a boost, according to the CME futures market data, is 91%, that is, the markets do not question the next step, nevertheless, according to inflation expectations, the image is not so rosy.Yield of the
bonds Tips continues to decline, as of August 9, it was up to April worths, and for that reason there is every reason to expect that the information for August will be significantly even worse than the July information.
The 2nd worrying criterion is the dynamics of labor remuneration. The growth of the typical wage can be considered adequate just without taking inflation into account, however if we fix the inflation, it will turn out that the typical wage has actually reduced by 0.2% year-on-year, which casts doubt on the spending plan’s fillability and the success of the entire tax reform as a whole.The hazard
of failing on the eve of the congressional elections makes Trump act more aggressively, and the sharp drop in a number of currencies against the dollar by the end of the week is mainly political, not economic.The weekly CFTC report revealed that the dollar continues to be the leader of the currency market, and, most likely, will continue to strengthen.On Tuesday, the
index of organisation optimism from NFIB will be published, on Wednesday a crucial report on the characteristics of retail sales in July, which could affect inflation expectations.Eurozone The sharp decrease in the euro on Friday
was due to
the announcement of the ECB about the growing risks for the euro location connected with the fall of the Turkish lira, considering that it is the European banks that are the primary creditors of the Turkish economy. The issues for the banks provoked discussions that the ECB could extend the property repurchase program, which was the direct cause of the euro’s decrease. Because an instant refutation by the ECB management was not followed, it can be presumed that the regulator does not intend to avoid the euro from weakening.This conclusion is supported by the general state of mind of the economic bulletin published recently, in which the ECB expresses concern over the slowdown in world trade. For the first time considering that 2016, the volume of imports shows a slowdown, export orders noticeably reduce, in these conditions, a decrease in the euro for the euro location is a favorable element. On Tuesday, the 2nd quote of GDP development in the euro location in the second quarter, as well as
a report on commercial production in June, will be published. There are needs to think that it will be worse than the previous one, which will increase pressure on the euro.At the moment, EUR/ USD stays under pressure, support for 1.1450 has actually not withstood, and now the main resistance has actually shifted to this level. The nearest target is 1.1260/ 80, a little further support is 1.1185/ 95, which is most likely to be the target of the bears for the next week.United Kingdom Friday for the pound was rich for news. Macroeconomic reports in basic looked quite positive-GDP development in 2 square meters. verified at 1.3%, production in June stayed stable, the dynamics of the trade balance was suddenly positive.However, a pound of positive news does not assist much. Threats of the hard Brexit have increased significantly after comments by Bank of England Guv Mark Carney and Commerce Minister Liam Fox, and the call for a brand-new referendum is likewise picking up. Such an advancement of occasions presents a specific intricacy for the Bank of England, as it calls into question the progressive conclusion of a period of soft financial policy.On Tuesday, a report on the labor market will be released, on Wednesday, consumer inflation. Even favorable news will not assist the pound to begin recovery, the GBP/ USD rate will stay under the impact of political elements. In the next 24 hours, the pound is most likely to fall below 1.27, resistance is supported by the recent assistance of 1.2917. The product has actually been provided by InstaForex Company -www.instaforex.com