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Breaking projection 10.17.2017

EURUSD under pressure.The EURUSD rate is under pressure from offering on Tuesday morning. The reasons are: the strong data on the United States economy and the steady acceleration of inflation. Strong information on the development of industrial production in the United States was launched on Monday.The 2nd reason: Madrid’s demand to the

authorities of Catalonia expires on Thursday. Madrid’s tough stance might set off a new age of mass protests in Catalonia- and still set off the Catalan exit system from Spain.Otherwise, the news background is calm.Continue with technique -prepare entry for the breakdown of the range borders: buying above 1.1880 and offering below 1.1668. At the same time, you can act more strongly: sell from 1.1780-with a stop-loss at 1.1825-and in case of a reversal-purchase above 1.1825 with a stop-loss at 1.1780.

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The Swiss franc compromised against its significant rivals in late Asian deals on Tuesday.

The franc dropped to 1.2964 against the pound, 1.1516 versus the euro and 114.69 versus the yen, from its early highs of 1.2912 and 1.1498, and a 4-day high of 115.05, respectively.

The franc slipped to a weekly low of 0.9780 against the dollar, off its previous high of 0.9748.

The next possible support for the franc is seen around 0.99 against the greenback, 1.32 versus the pound, 1.16 versus the euro and 113.00 against the yen.

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The Dollar index is finally bouncing as part of the correction of the downward move from the 94 area highs. Price has reached important short-term cloud and Fibo resistance.

Price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. Support is at 93.10 and resistance is at 93.60. A rejection here will be a bearish sign. If price manages to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, then we could even see new monthly highs for the index.

Blue lines – bullish channel

Black lines – bearish channel

Although price is still trapped inside the bearish daily channel, price in ichimoku terms on a daily basis has a neutral trend as price is trapped inside the Kumo (cloud). Channel support is at 93. Only a break below that level will confirm the resumption of the downward trend.

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Gold price reversed yesterday and has pulled back below $1,300. As we mentioned a couple days ago, the area of $1,305-$1,310 is an important resistance area and a pullback from that area towards $1,280 was justified.

In Ichimoku cloud terms, this pullback is considered a buying opportunity. Price is above the 4-hour Kumo. Price is correcting the recent upward move from $1,260 to $1,306. Price has just reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price could reach the Kumo and the 50% retracement before the up trend resumes.

On a weekly basis, we see a rejection at the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator). For the bullish scenario to remain valid, we need to see a long lower tail in this week’s candle and eventually a break above the weekly tenkan-sen. A weekly close below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) will be a bearish sign.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Europe Jan-Sep New Car Registrations Rise 3.7% On Year

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Ibovespa, the benchmark stock index in Brazil, fell 0.12% Monday, closing at 76,891.84 points, affected by the power battle involving President Michel Temer and Legislature’ speaker, Rodrigo Maia.

The Ibovespa was rising till mid-afternoon, when the exercise of choices on B3 shares started under the bad mood set off by the dripping of a video testimony where Lucio Funaro, a business owner closely linked to Temer, exposes major allegations versus the president.

“At the start of the day, products made the Ibovespa increase, however here the political scene continues to interfere and, even if it is anticipated that the criminal problem against Temer will not move ahead in the House, reports of a power struggle in between Maia and Temer brings doubts,” said Vitor Suzaki, an analyst at Lerosa Investimentos.

In the business field, Amazon’s possible entry into full operation in Brazil weighted on Lojas Americanas’ shares, which fell 3.22%.

“On the opposite end, Credit Suisse’s suggestion on Santander’s documents made the shares increase 3.95%,” said Ari Santos, H. Commcor’s chief running officer.

The locally traded U.S. dollar tracked the worldwide forex market, following reports on Janet Yellen’s follower as head of the United States Federal Reserve Bank. Likewise, the Temer-Maia power battle weighted on the exchange. Provided this, the greenback advanced 0.76%, estimated at R$ 3,174.

For Tuesday, the struggling political landscape must keep the Ibovespa under pressure, Santos and Suzaki concurred.

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Customer prices in New Zealand advanced 0.5 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2017, Statistics New Zealand stated on Tuesday.

That surpassed forecasts for a gain of 0.4 percent following the flat reading in the previous three months.

Food rates rose 1.1 percent, affected by higher rates for vegetables (up 6.2 percent).

Housing and household utilities rose 1.0 percent, affected by local authority rates (up 3.5 percent), leasings for real estate (up 0.6 percent), and purchase of new real estate (up 1.1 percent).

Transport rates fell 1.1 percent, with less expensive gas rates (down 1.7 percent), and worldwide airfares (down 5.5 percent).

On a yearly basis, inflation climbed up 1.9 percent – once again topping expectations for 1.8 percent and up from 1.7 percent in the 3 months prior.

Real estate and household utilities increased 3.0 percent, with purchase of new real estate up 5.4 percent, and leasings for real estate up 2.2 percent.

Food rates increased 2.8 percent, with vegetables up 9.0 percent.

Interaction prices reduced 5.3 percent, with telecommunications services down 4.5 percent and equipment down 22 percent.

Rents rose 0.6 percent in Q3 and 2.2 percent in the year. Construction of brand-new houses (excluding land) rose 1.1 percent this quarter and 5.4 percent in the year to September.

Regional authority rates increased 3.5 percent this quarter and 3.7 percent in the year. Residence insurance rose 6.1 percent this quarter and 12 percent in the year. Petrol rates fell 1.7 percent in the September 2017 quarter and increased 4.5 percent in the year.

International air fares fell 5.5 percent this quarter and 2.7 percent in the year to September. Lorry re-licensing costs fell 8.0 percent this quarter and 8.0 percent in the year. Rates for pre-owned motor cars and trucks fell 0.9 percent this quarter and increased 1.8 percent in the year.

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Bitcoin has been quite corrective today showing no directional bias after reaching above the $5,500 price level. After an impulsive bullish move, the corrective sequence is quite, as expected from a mature financial instrument. The price is expected to proceed towards the $6,000 price level in the coming days, but certain retracement is expected to push the price towards the Kumo Cloud before the price pushes higher. There is certain news about Bitcoin acceptance in various organizations and places, which has contributed well enough to the recent Bitcoin gains by shifting the market sentiment from the Risky instrument to Safe Haven again. Currently, the price is showing bullish pressure inside the corrective structure whereas breaking above $5,822 will eliminate chances of further retracement towards the Cloud and push the price higher towards the $6,000 price level. As the price remains above the $5,500 level, the bullish pressure is expected to be intact creating more higher highs in the future.

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USD/JPY has been quite bearish recently after bouncing off 113.00-40 resistance area. After the dovish FOMC Meeting last week and recent worse economic reports from the US, JPY has gained notably against USD recently. Yellen recently stated that low inflation effected the growth of USD, so December Rate Hike is still quite uncertain. On the JPY side, amid quantitative easing the Bank of Japan is looking forward for a weaker JPY compared to USD to support the future trades. Today, Japan’s Revised Industrial Production report was published with a decreased value of 2.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.1%. Despite the worse economic report JPY, strength sustained in the market which indicates that USD is a very weak currency. On the USD side, today Empire State Manufacturing Index report was published with a significant increase to 30.2 from the previous figure of 24.4 which was expected to decrease to 20.3. Despite the positive economic reports, USD could not provide any pressure to push against JPY today. To sum up, USD is currently weaker in comparison to JPY now which is being reflected in the market. JPY is expected to push the price lower in the coming days if the US does not come up with high impact positive economic report to interfere in the bearish trend.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA after being bearish straight for a week. The price is expected to push lower towards 110.60 in the coming days before it shows any directional change of bullish price action. As the price remains below the 20 EMA and 113.00-40 resistance area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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After a bullish bias, EUR/USD has been trading in a range after rejecting off the 1.1870 resistance area. The USD weakened last week as FOMC failed to provide detailed information and recent economic data from the US was quite disappointing which made the bulls take over the bears. On the other hand, recently EUR has been quite positive amid economic reports and events. The market today was very slow and quiet amid lack of high impact economic events and reports on EUR and USD. Today, German WPI report was published with an increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.4% and Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 21.6B from the previous figure of 17.9B which was expected to be at 20.3B. On the USD side, today the Empire State Manufacturing Index report was published with a better than expected figure of 30.2 from the previous figure of 24.4 which was expected to decrease to 20.3. As for the current scenario, both the eurozone and the US released positive economic reports today. Importantly, this week the economic calendar is packed with high impact economic reports on the EUR side like ECB President Draghi’s speech. On the USD side, Building Permits and Unemployment Claims report are expected to inject a good amount of volatility in the market. Such a busy economic calendar is likely to determine a further direction of this pair.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and resistance area of 1.1870 which is expected to push the price lower towards 1.1620 support area in the coming days. The price has already rejected off the level a few times before pushing the price lower which indicates the strength of the level is quite good. So, as the price remains below the resistance area of 1.1870 the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com