Dutch Oct Customer Confidence 15.0 Vs. 19.0 In September
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Dutch Oct Customer Confidence 15.0 Vs. 19.0 In September
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Dutch Aug Consumer Spending Rises 2.2% On Year
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The British pound is selling a narrow price variety after the news on Brexit, which lead traders and financiers to a higher impasse. Today, the Minister of Commerce Wilbur Ross prompted the EU to begin an accelerated process of settlements on a trade agreement with the United States, stating at a press conference in Brussels that the perseverance of the President of the United States has practically gone out. This recommends that the White Home kept in mind about the EU and trade tasks, and simply at the incorrect time. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence.
Brexit and the pressure from the White House
After the appearance of such news, agents of the European Union made a proposition to extend the transition duration for Brexit for another 12 months, arguing that there is very little time left, and the problematic concerns have actually not yet been dealt with. Let me remind you that the UK’s exit from the EU is scheduled for March 2019.
Donald Trump demanded faster lead to trade settlements with the EU, development in which, in his opinion, is still unsatisfactory. European Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom, in turn, accused Washington of not dealing with the EU on forming a structure of the trade arrangement.
In other words, the trade dispute with China, which lasted for quite a long time and which will be discussed for more than a year, gradually relocated to the background. It’s time for the United States governmental administration to return the pressure on the EU, which is puzzled by the issue with Brexit and remains in the most susceptible position.
More than likely, the strategy of the summer break was made specifically because of the timing, which permitted the EU to handle two problems at the exact same time. Now, when an arrangement on Brexit has not been reached, and is not likely to be, it’s time for the White House to advise the EU about itself.
As I kept in mind above, now, in order to break the deadlock in the Brexit settlements, the EU is prepared to extend the shift duration for the UK for one year.
However this course of things is unlikely to suit the supporters of the hard Brexit, as the extension of the terms keeps the UK trade subscription for another year and requires them to comply with the EU guidelines. British Prime Minister Theresa May also made a declaration in this regard, which is considering a longer transition period.
The British pound, meanwhile, does not understand how to react to all this. A slight strengthening in the very first half of the day was replaced by a fall after the release of data that retail sales in the UK reduced compared to August this year. The fall was due to the fact that consumers lowered expenses after the summer season.
According to a report by the National Bureau of Data, retail sales declined by 0.8% in September 2018. Let me remind you that consumer spending is among the motorists of financial development.
As kept in mind in the Bureau, at present, the potential customers for customer costs are unclear, even if wage development speeds up and inflation slows down. All this is offset by customer self-confidence, which is decreasing versus the background of Brexit uncertainty.The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com
So, the October top in the EU, obviously, ended in failure. A minimum of, the previously revealed outcome could not be accomplished: London and Brussels were again not able to concur and even canceled the November top, where the finalizing of the historical deal was to occur. The celebrations do not see any sense in event in one meeting room and keeping in mind the lack of development in the settlements, so now the Brexit top will be
held”on demand “-that is, when both the British and European sides confirm the achievement of a last compromise.< img width= "450" src="http://qkfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/gbp-usd-the-first-results-of-the-eu-summit.jpg"alt=" LA8Dowjm1a_7IA5QYoWBg_f5Vkgi00QbBHeToObB "/ > Nevertheless, based on the rhetoric of Theresa Might and the EU management, the positions of the celebrations are still at different poles- mainly in the issue of the Irish border. At the summit, there was even a concept to delay the date of Britain’s final withdrawal from the European Union. Hence, according to unconfirmed reports, Brussels recommended that London ought to lengthen the transitional duration for another year, which ought to now be completed in December 2020. Simply put, de jure, the UK will leave the EU in a few months (in March 2019 ), and de facto will stay within the structure of the single European market and the EU customs union for another three years. During this period, according to the authors of the idea, the parties will still be able to solve the problem of the Irish border, and other crucial issues.
There is another subtext of this circumstance: a possible modification in the political landscape in Britain. On the sidelines of the summit, many European politicians said that the settlement process is obstructed mostly by the lack of political unity in the UK itself. Theresa May, with terrific trouble, lobbied her own “Chequers” strategy in Parliament, which triggered a wave of criticism in Brussels and in the ranks of the Conservative Party, not to point out the Labour Party. And if the “hawks” among the British did not arrange compromise steps towards Brussels, then the Europeans, in turn, did not see even a hint of compromise there.
Therefore, the chain was closed, and Theresa Might discovered herself in the center of the quadrangle: Brussels-Conservatives- Labour. The Democratic Unionist Party (specifically with regard to the Irish border) also expresses its claims – and the prime minister is required to reckon with them, since agents of the DUP are coalition allies of the conservatives and their votes are needed when thinking about such crucial problems as the nation’s spending plan.
The unscheduled parliamentary elections in Britain would help unwind this tangle. In case of victory, a Parliament more devoted to the Prime Minister would enable may to expand the variety of possible compromises. And this option was truly talked about not so long ago – however the head of federal government did not attempt to take this step, because there was a danger of again “stepping on the rake” in 2017, when, as an outcome of early elections, the conservatives lost a bulk in Parliament.
Furthermore, the performed surveys showed the growing popularity of Labour – who, though they do not refuse Brexit, however supporter extensive cooperation with the Alliance after the “divorce process”. Over the past two years, all sorts of experts – ranging from journalists and ending with the top officials of the nation – have actually described the negative consequences of disorderly Brexit without a deal in the brightest colors, and it is not unexpected that lots of Britons reconsidered their attitude to finish self-reliance “in spite of whatever”. Simply put, elections are not a choice for May (or rather, the most severe alternative), so she is forced to navigate in between the opposition, the internal opposition and Brussels.
Considering the conditions developed, it is clear that the deal is unlikely to be signed prior to the end of this year – unless one of the parties makes major concessions (which is unlikely). In my viewpoint, Theresa May will however consent to extend the period of the shift duration in order to avoid a financial collapse in the nation. Today, she even voiced this probability, however, extremely carefully. According to her, the transition duration can be extended “simply for a couple of months”, however the standard scenario stays the same – December 2020. Such expressions in the mouth of a skilled politician indicate something: the federal government of May accepts the proposed option, and the 1 year extension term will be concurred in phases so as not to cause a strong rebuff from the British parliamentarians. To put it simply, in the course of additional settlements, the celebrations will come to the conclusion that “a couple of months” will not conserve the circumstance, and, therefore, this duration must be increased to a year.
By and big, this is the only “achievement” of the October EU summit, and of a rather suspicious nature in the context of the foreign exchange market. In fact, the program of unpredictability is extended for another year, while maintaining the likelihood of a “tough” Brexit. Nevertheless, this circumstance is unquestionably much better than the chaotic alternative, the consequences of which are challenging to evaluate till completion. That is why the pound today took the words of Theresa May with some enthusiasm, returning to the 31st figure in a pair with the dollar. The possible economic armageddon was de facto postponed for another year, and this “sedative tablet” has actually had its result on the market.The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low):
66 p-111 p-98 p-95 p-93 p. The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 93 p (90 p). The British pound on Thursday, October 18, fell to the lower limitation of the Ichimoku cloud, but might not overcome it on the first effort. Nevertheless, at the moment it seems that this is just a momentary stop. By all indicators, talks on Brexit stopped working, a new round of negotiations was canceled by EU leaders. Therefore, the possibility that the UK will leave the EU with no agreements is growing. However this is not the main thing now. The concern is what will Theresa May do, who is at a certain crossroads. On the one hand, the lack of a “deal” with the EU is a major blow to her image and political rating. In specific, Boris Johnson has actually currently hinted that he is prepared to accept the post of prime minister. On the other hand, to conclude a “offer” with the EU suggests to make new concessions, which the British Parliament will not understand and, more than likely, will not support the vote. Thus, the existing potential customers of the pound sterling are again extremely weak. If we add to this the weak report launched today on retail sales in the UK, the photo for the English currency ends up being rather sad. On the technical side, additional downward motion restricts the Senkou Span B line, however, it seems that it will not stand under the attack of bears. If the price overcomes this line, the sell signal from Ichimoku will be strengthened, and the course will be open to the first support level of 1.3034.
The GBP/USD currency set has actually evaluated the Senkou Period B line. The sell-positions can be raised with the target of 1.3034 if the price consolidates below it. The reversal of the MACD indicator to the top, specifically with the rebound from the Senkou Span B line, will indicate an upward correction round.
Buy-positions can be considered once again no earlier than the cost repairing above the Kijun-Sen line. In this case, the trend will alter to ascending, however in existing conditions it is hard to envision what essential information will be able to support the pound.
In addition to the technical image, basic information and the timing of their release should likewise be taken into consideration.
Explanation of the illustration:
Tenkan-sen – the red line.
Kijun-sen – the blue line.
Senkou Period A – light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou Period – green line.
Bollinger Bands indication:
3 yellow lines.
Red line and pie chart with white bars in the sign window.The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Petroleum futures settled at 5-week short on Thursday, extending previous session’s losses, due to a sharp dive in U.S. unrefined stocks last week and on demand development concerns.
It is extensively felt that need for crude might see a drop or grow at a slower rate in the near term due to the ongoing trade disagreement between the U.S. and China and in the middle of unpredictability about the outlook for international economic development.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate Unrefined futures for November delivery ended down $1.10, or 1.6%, at 68.65 a barrel. On Wednesday, petroleum futures ended lower by $2.17, or 3%, at $69.75 a barrel.
Information released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday revealed U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.5 million barrels in the week ended October 12, a lot more than the anticipated quantum of boost. That was the fourth successive weekly develop. Unrefined stockpiles had risen by 6.0 million barrels a week earlier.
According to a report from independent oil cargo surveyor Tanker Trackers, Iran exported 2.2 million barrels each day in the first fortnight of this month, about 0.5 million barrels lower than the peak export of 2.7 million barrels per day seen in May this year.
Traders have actually been weighing the prospects of a drop in demand due to the continuous trade disagreements between the U.S. and China, as likewise the most likely loss of oil in the market post execution of sanctions versus Iranian oil from early November.
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Gold prices moved higher on Thursday, in spite of the U.S. dollar rising to a one-week high on hawkish Fed minutes.
A sell-off in Asian stock markets in the middle of rising fret about the U.S.-China trade stress and a slowing Chinese economy and the sharp plunge on Wall Street after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced he will not participate in an upcoming investment conference in Saudi Arabia, triggered traders to switch their focus to the bullion.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s newest policy conference indicated that the U.S. central bank is persevering on rate hikes, in spite of President Donald Trump calling it the “greatest risk” to his presidency.
After seeing some weak spells in recent weeks, the yellow metal is gradually regaining its safe house status.
Gold futures for December ended up $2.70, or 0.20%, at $1,230.10 an ounce. On Wednesday, gold futures ended down $3.60, or 0.3%, at $1,227.40 an ounce.
Silver futures for December settled at $14.604 an ounce, down $0.059 from previous close.
Copper futures for December ended down $0.0315, at $2.7465 an ounce.
The U.S. Treasury Department has chosen not to label China a currency manipulator, however Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that China’s absence of openness over its currency and current weak point in the yuan are of “specific issue” for the United States and “posture major challenges to achieving fairer and more well balanced trade.
In a relocation that intends to press Beijing, the Trump administration relocated to withdraw from a global treaty on postal rates. Mnuchin published in Twitter that he will not be taking part in the Future Investment Initiative top in Saudi Arabia. Mnuchin is amongst several other magnates and international financing leaders to have actually left of the conference. His decision can be found in the wake of Saudi Arabia continuing to deal with substantial international pressure over the current disappearance of reporter Jamal Khashoggi.
On the U.S. financial front, a report from the Labor Department showed a modest decrease in preliminary jobless claims in the week ended October 13th.
A different report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia revealed manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia location grew at a somewhat slower rate in the month of October. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity edged down to 22.2 in October from 22.9 in September, although a positive reading still shows growth in local manufacturing activity. The index had been expected to drop to 20.0.
On the other hand, the Conference Board released a report showing its index of leading U.S. economic indications climbed up by 0.5% in September after rising by 0.4% in August.
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Bitcoin has been quite low on liquidity and indecisive for a few days in a row after breaking above $6,500 area amid strong bullish momentum. The price is currently being held by the Kumo Cloud as resistance whereas other dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line are currently flat. As BTC price has no definite trend pressure, it is expected to trade above $6,000-6,500 area and then climb higher. The Kumo Cloud can be observed shrinking, whereas strong bullish momentum is likely to push the price towards the area from $7500 to $8000 in the coming days.
SUPPORT: 6,000, 6,500
RESISTANCE: 7,500, 8,000
MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE and VOLATILE
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Because the summertime of this year, volatility has been lowered in the worldwide currency market. In the primary sets, primarily peaceful, oscillations closed in a narrow range. At the exact same time, the currency in current months has pretty stunned.
The currency pair EUR/ USD has actually almost grown in the series of 1.14 – 1.17, however if you take note of the dollar index, the picture is clearer. Currently, the sign is located around 95.5 points. The solid assistance is 94, and the critical resistance level is in the variety of 96.2 – 96.3. In case of a development of this barrier, the American dollar can dial up to 4% and fly to a worth of 100 points.
From a technical viewpoint, whatever is clear, in general, just like the basic. Now, the factor for the development of the euro in the summer is clear. The Bank of Russia could make a definite contribution here. As kept in mind in Goldman Sachs, there are signs of the truth that the Reserve bank converted dollars from United States government bonds into Euros and put them in various documents of the eurozone nations. Maybe, this can explain the fact that the classic bring trade from euro to dollar did not work, despite the substantial distinction in rates by almost 300 basis points.Then the circumstance changed, after the last increase in the US refinancing rate, yields on United States federal government bonds increased. Even the “three-year-olds” went beyond 3%. Risks in global markets have actually increased substantially, financiers hurried to dispose shares. The process can still be controlled, and market participants are shopping dips. The VIX has actually grown, but there are no transcendental heights, there is a progressive upward motion.
However, the scenario can rapidly get out of control. Released on Wednesday, the minutes of the September Fed conference showed the outright unanimity of officials in an effort to raise the rate slowly. They likewise hinted at the possibility of leaving the rate above the neutral level. In December, the Fed will once again tighten up the policy. This is almost one hundred percent assurance. Hence, yields on the United States Treasury debt market will increase.According to JP Morgan, when the yield on 10-year securities increases to 3.4 %, big institutional investors will have no sense in shares and they will be moved to bonds.So, in the near future, dips will become more frequent on the stock exchange, and panic might come one day. In this circumstance, the dollar has all the opportunities to rise significantly.It doesn’t matter who treats the US currency and what forecasts provide, however it stays main to the estimations for numerous contracts. In the days of tension in the markets, the demand for the dollar boosts, the threats are to its advantage.Euro In 2019, the euro ought to rise as the ECB will start to raise rates.The CIBC is encouraged to open a brief position in the EUR/ SEK pair at a break below 10.28, and likewise in the EUR/ NOK pair at a break below 9.38. When it comes to EUR/ USD, the bank needs to admit that the set will decrease. Specialists prompt euro purchasers to be client. The factors for the decline of the euro are the following: Next week, Italy’s draft spending plan is most likely to be turned down. The spending plan, which will suit EU regulations, is not likely to get approval in the Italian parliament prior to the end of the year.Forcing the euro to”defend “can “bad result of support “of Angela Merkel and her party in the upcoming state elections in Germany.The quantitative relieving program of the ECB ends in January. The regulator is “concerned about the effects of lower liquidity and the repercussions for possessions,”according to the bank.The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com
The dollar has actually updated the weekly high, and the stock market fell in the middle of indications that the Fed will continue to raise rates of interest up until 2019. China’s stock markets were hit hard. The stock base index fell to a four-year low. The yuan was close to a two-month low. Chinese Prime Minister alerted about the threats to the economy from the escalation of the tariff war with the United States. At the exact same time, European markets did not succumb to provocation. London FTSE traded 0.1 percent higher, German DAX and French CAC increased 0.3 percent.
The overall European stock index increased 0.4 percent.The minutes of the last Fed conference showed that the regulator all supported the increase in interest rates last month, which, in general, everyone agrees on the need for further boosts. This enhances the expectation that rates will rise, in spite of the viewpoint of President Donald Trump that the Fed is in too much of a hurry.
One thing is clear, as if we are getting in a duration of tightening up United States monetary policy. The dollar looks more than confident versus this background, it rebounded after the recent recession and is most likely to continue its rise. Euro can not possess such characteristics. In basic, over the past three weeks, the euro has actually lost a bit less than 3 percent of its value versus the dollar. Other significant currencies showed a restricted reaction after the United States government declined to call China a currency manipulator.In its currency report, the United States Treasury Department reported that the recent devaluation of the yuan in China is most likely to exacerbate the United States trade deficit, however Beijing can not be blamed for straight impacting the value of the currency. The product has actually been provided by InstaForex Company -www.instaforex.com