Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Feb 18, 2019 888011000 110888 In Asia, Japan will launch the Core Equipment Orders m/m, however the US will not release any economic information today. There is a likelihood the USD/JPY set will move with a low to a medium volatility throughout this day. TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 111.06. Resistance. 2: 110.84. Resistance. 1: 110.63. Support. 1: 110.36. Assistance. 2: 110.14. Assistance. 3: 109.92.(Disclaimer)The product has been offered by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | February 18, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m, but the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY’S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 111.06. Resistance. 2: 110.84. Resistance. 1: 110.63. Support. 1: 110.36. Support. 2: 110.14. Support. 3: 109.92. (Disclaimer)

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Jonathon Alexander

Dollar Turns Subdued After Trump Declares National Emergency Situation

By | February 15, 2019

After holding in favorable territory during earlier part of the session on Friday, the U.S. dollar pulled back and lost ground against some peers after President Donald Trump stated a national emergency situation on border security.

Previously, Trump signed a costs to prevent another federal government shutdown.

Economic data ended up being a mixed bag. Import costs contracted in January and commercial production declined in the month. However, there was something to cheer about for investors as information from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment to have actually reached a rating of 95.5 in February, topping projections.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.83 by mid afternoon, after having risen to a high of 97.37 early on in the session.

On the trade talks front, the two-day high level discussions ended in Beijing today with no development on specific key concerns. Chinese President Xi Jinping stated after the conclusion of the two-day conversations that talks will resume in Washington next week.

The dollar strenthened to 1.1234 against the Euro, gaining substantially from previous close of 1.1298, however retreated later on and weakened to 1.1312.

Comments from European Reserve Bank that banks might get some long-lasting refinancing sent out stock costs, specifically those from the banking area, skyrocketing in European markets.

The greenback displayed weak point versus the Pound Sterling, with the latter increasing to $1.2897, up from previous close of $1.2802.

Versus the Yen, the dollar strengthened to 110.65 yen from previous close of 110.47, but reduced to 110.41 subsequently, netting a loss of about 0.05%.

Versus Swiss currency, the dollar reached a high of CHF 1.0090, but relieved to CHF 1.0045 later in the session, losing about 0.05%.

President Donald Trump today declared the situation on the U.S. border with Mexico a nationwide emergency in order to protect additional financing for his dissentious border wall.

Trump revealed the questionable move in a speech from the White House Rose Garden after both your home and Senate approved legislation to avoid another government shutdown.

The costs expense provides considerable cash for border security, including almost $1.4 billion for physical barriers, however falls well short of the $5.7 billion Trump has demanded for construction of the wall.

Throughout his speech, Trump repeated the validations for the border wall that he offered throughout his governmental project and his two years in the White Home.

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Jonathon Alexander

Treasuries Pull Back Somewhat Amid Optimism About Trade Talks

By | February 15, 2019

After moving especially higher over the course of the previous session, treasuries returned some ground during trading on Friday.

Bond rates climbed up well off their worst levels however still ended the day slightly lower. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves reverse of its rate, inched up by almost a basis point to 2.666 percent.

The pullback by treasuries came as safe houses such as bonds lost their appeal in the middle of continued optimism about trade talks between the U.S. and China, the world’s 2 largest economies.

A statement from the White House said high level U.S.-China trade talks today led to “progress in between the two parties” but kept in mind “much work remains.”

The White Home said the U.S. intends to see extra development as discussions at the vice-ministerial and ministerial levels continue in Washington next week.

Optimism about the financial outlook was also produced by initial information from the University of Michigan revealing a bigger than anticipated rebound in consumer belief in the month of February.

The report stated the consumer sentiment index reached 95.5 in February after toppling to 91.2 in January. Financial experts had actually anticipated the index to increase to 93.0.

Surveys of Consumers chief economic expert Richard Curtin said the rebound in customer belief showed the end of the partial government shutdown along with a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Federal Reserve’s pause in raising rate of interest.

On the other hand, traders largely brushed off a report from the Federal Reserve showing an unanticipated reduction in industrial production in January.

The Fed said commercial production fell by 0.6 percent in January after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in December.

Economic experts had actually expected production to tick up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.3 percent increase initially reported for the previous month.

The unanticipated drop in commercial production came as producing output slumped by 0.9 percent in January after climbing up by 0.8 percent in December.

Following the holiday weekend, next week’s trading may be impacted by response to reports on homebuilder self-confidence, long lasting products orders and existing home sales.

The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Crude Oil Futures Settle At Near 3-month High

By | February 15, 2019

Crude oil futures ended sharply greater on Friday, raised by current data revealing declines in unrefined output from OPEC. Traders likewise felt that Saudi Arabia’s choice to increase the level of output decrease will considerably tighten unrefined supply in the market.

Expectations that the U.S.-China trade talks that will continue in Washington next week will assist fix the conflicts in between the two largest economies on the planet and allay worries about energy need rose oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Petroleum futures for March ended up $1.18, or 2.2%, at $55.59 a barrel, a near 3-month high.

On Thursday, crude oil rates wound up $0.51, or about 1%, at $54.41 a barrel.

For the week, crude oil futures got as much as 5.4%.

In January, OPEC cut output by almost 800,000 barrels per day, just short of the proposed decrease of 812,000 barrels per day.

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia stated that it prepares to produce around 9.8 million barrels per day of oil in March, majority a million barrels per day listed below its promised production level.

The partial closure of Safaniya offshore oil fields in Saudi Arabia too added to oil’s uptick today.

Baker Hughes reported today that U.S. oil companies increased the variety of oil rigs by 3 this week, bringing the overall rig count to 857.

In its regular monthly report today, the International Energy Firm cautioned that the worldwide oil market will struggle to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Gold Futures Settle Significantly Greater

By | February 15, 2019

Gold rates rose to a two-week high on Friday with traders producing fresh positions in the middle of optimism about U.S.-China trade talks.

A positive result from U.S.-China trade negotiations will significantly improve gold need in China, the greatest market for the product.

After the conclusion of the two-day high level talks in between U.S. and China officials in Beijing, Chinese President Xi-Jinping stated today that talks will continue in Washington next week, raising hopes the 2 countries will settle on a deal sometime soon.

Gold rates advanced today, despite dollar’s increase and gains for European and U.S. stocks.

The Dollar Index rose to a high of 97.20 prior to pulling away to lower levels after data showed import prices to have compromised for the third straight month in January.

Gold futures for April wound up $8.20, or 0.6%, at $1,322.10 an ounce.

On Thursday, gold futures for April ended down $1.20, or 0.1%, at $1,313.90 an ounce. For the week, gold futures gained 0.3%.

Silver futures for March settled at $15.743, gaining $0.215 for the session.

Copper futures for March ended up $0.0245, at $2.7985 per pound.

Initial data from the University of Michigan showed a larger than expected rebound in customer sentiment in the month of February.

The report stated the customer belief index climbed to 95.5 in February after toppling to 91.2 in January. Economists had expected the index to rise to 93.0. Consumer sentiment saw a notable wear and tear in January.

A report from the Federal Reserve stated commercial production in the U.S. all of a sudden reduced in the month of January, falling by 0.6% after inching up by a downwardly modified 0.1% in December.

Economists had expected production to tick up by 0.1% compared to the 0.3% increase originally reported for the previous month.

The unforeseen drop in industrial production came as producing output dropped by 0.9% in January after climbing up by 0.8% in December.

The product has actually been supplied by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

EUR/ USD: Should I be afraid of the parliamentary elections in Spain?

By | February 15, 2019

The euro/dollar set has as soon as again showed a southern impulse. Nevertheless, the other day’s correction did not continue as the bears returned the price to the location of the 12th figure. Such cost dynamics are fully warranted due to the fact that the single currency is now under pressure not only from the economic problems of the eurozone but also from political

uncertainty in Spain. Spanish politicians are the only ones that make traders anxious. In France, the protests of the “yellow vests” do not decrease and in Italy, the trade unions just recently objected, where representatives of the association of industrialists joined them. Specialists warn that such beliefs on the eve of the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held in three months, are a wake-up signal to the marketplaces. The popularity of populist and nationalist political forces is growing in the EU countries, so the outcomes of the basic European elections may unpleasantly shock.

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According to preliminary forecasts, there will be more groups in the European Parliament, while agents of big factions will not be able to repeat their previous results. This is filled with the truth that the European Parliament will be fragmented, and coalitions will be produced with terrific trouble. In addition, according to a number of political researchers, Eurosceptics will block lots of initiatives, mainly in the sphere of migration legislation.

In this context, the most recent German regional elections look significant, which were held last fall. The outcomes of the plebiscite revealed that electoral choices are altering in Germany and these modifications are not in favor of European combination. The main sensation of the last election was the amazing success of the ultra-right. For 4 years, they strengthened their positions tenfold and had the ability to enter into parliament, showing the dominating mindsets in society.

In other words, factors such as the popularization of ultra-right political forces, the increase of anti-immigration rhetoric and the increasing function of nationalist ideas weigh on the prospects for the development of the European Union. Similar trends can be shown in the result of the pan-European elections. This reality puts pressure on the single currency, particularly versus the background of a downturn in the key indications of the eurozone and softening the rhetoric of the ECB.

Yet, Spain has ended up being the catalyst for today’s rate decrease of EUR/USD set. There will be remarkable parliamentary elections once again for the 3rd time in a row over the previous four years. The deputies might not find a compromise on the proposed spending plan, requiring the prime minister to announce early elections. Therefore, on April 28, the Spaniards will not only appreciate the work of the socialist government but likewise change the political format of the parliament – at least, many local professionals are sure of it.

It needs to be noted here that the occasions in Spain should not be viewed only in an unfavorable context. Despite the reality that any extraordinary elections are definitely difficult for the markets, their results can positively affect the single currency. The fact is that literally a few days ago there was a mass demonstration in Madrid, which was participated in by tens of countless local homeowners. They opposed against the country’s Social Democratic Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who in their viewpoint, acts “too liberally” in relation to the Catalan federal government and supporters of the separation of the region from Spain. To put it simply, the protesters spoke in favor of the unity of the nation, expressing demonstration to the present government and parliament (till March 5), if pro-European political forces concern power (in specific, representatives of the People Party) following the spring elections.

In spite of such possible potential customers, the marketplace reacted negatively to today’s events in Spain. Traders are concentrated on existing occasions while long-term forecasts have little result on the dynamics of the EUR/USD set. Financiers are worried about the growing political uncertainty in the eurozone nations, in addition to, the slowdown of the EU economy and vague prospects for Brexit.

In addition, the probability of a resumption of the trade war in between the United States and China has actually increased once again in spite of the ongoing negotiation procedure. According to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, trade settlements will be resumed with their next round to be held next week in Washington. Agents of the working out group avoid any specifics in their comments. The essence of their declarations boils down to the truth that they have actually made some progress, although there is still a lot of work to be done. Such veiled declarations alarm traders, given the truth that the “deadline” on March 1 is simply around the corner.

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Thus, the single currency is still not strong enough to recuperate. In such situations, anymore or less massive correctional development of EUR/USD set need to be thought about as an event to open brief positions. The nearest southern target is 1.1230, which is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indication on the weekly and daily charts. If the bears combine listed below this support level, they will break the ice to the level of 1,1100, which is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands however on the month-to-month chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

U.S. Customer Belief Rebounds More Than Anticipated In February

By | February 15, 2019

After reporting a significant wear and tear in U.S. consumer sentiment in the previous month, the University of Michigan released preliminary information on Friday revealing a bigger than expected rebound in belief in the month of February.

The report stated the customer sentiment index climbed to 95.5 in February after toppling to 91.2 in January. Financial experts had expected the index to increase to 93.0.

Studies of Consumers primary economist Richard Curtin said the rebound in consumer sentiment reflected completion of the partial government shutdown along with a more essential shift in customer expectations due to the Federal Reserve’s pause in raising rates of interest.

Customers expressed considerably more optimism about the financial outlook, with the index of customer expectations leaping to 86.2 in February after plunging to 79.9 in January.

The current financial conditions index showed a more modest boost, inching up to 110.0 in February after dropping to 108.8 in January.

On the inflation front, 1 year inflation expectations dropped to 2.5 percent in February from 2.7 percent in January and five-year inflation expectations slid to 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent.

“The information suggest that the Fed will find it even harder to justify another rate trek given the record low inflation expectations,” Curtin said.

He added, “The data will likewise add to the argument about the developing relationship between unemployment and inflation as consumers now anticipate lower inflation and greater joblessness.”

The product has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Euro flies into the void

By | February 15, 2019

The disappointing stats on US retail sales for December only temporarily stopped the bears in EUR/ USD. The US economy slows down to 2 %in the 4th quarter, according to JP Morgan. The Fed does not start to raise the federal funds rate in 2019, as the derivatives market shows, but the eurozone looks so dismal that

it’s healthy to discuss reanimation QE. Versus this background, the fall of the euro to 3-month lows against the United States dollar looks sensible. The main thing is that sellers do not exaggerate it. In the fourth quarter, German GDP almost fell into a technical economic crisis, while European GDP grew by a modest 0.2%q/ q. The issues of German market, weak domestic and external demand are forcing the economy of the currency bloc to decrease. Many of the difficulties are more than likely short-lived. If the trade wars stop, then the export of the Old World will be able to increase from its knees, but who can guarantee that this will happen? That having dealt with China, Donald Trump will not take up the EU by increasing tasks on European cars? But there is also Brexit and the related gap in economic ties with a crucial trading partner. Italy with its eurosceptics. The euro looks so weak that it is unable to withstand even the deprived of the main trumps of the United States dollar.

The “American” no longer expects aggressive monetary limitation and 3% GDP growth. About half of the numerous Reuters specialists forecast that the Fed has completed a cycle of tightening monetary policy, the rest believe that the reserve bank will raise the rate only when. Derivatives market gives only 2% possibility of such an outcome. For comparison, the opportunities of lowering the rate are estimated at 12.5%. At the same time, statistics on the States, with the exception, possibly, of retail sales, does not disappoint at all, and the divergence in the dynamics of financial surprise indexes develops a strong foundation for the downward trend in EUR/ USD.

Dynamics of United States economic indexes and eurozone surprises

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Obviously, versus the background of decent data, the fall in the likelihood of the Fed normalization cycle continuing is totally connected with the “pigeon” rhetoric of its representatives. In this regard, the publication of the minutes of the January meeting of the FOMC seems to be a test for the US dollar. The euro will have to go through the fire and copper pipelines: a day later on, on February 21, the statistics on service activity and the minutes of the meeting of the Governing Council will be launched. I remember that during journalism conference on its results, Mario Draghi discussed the LTRO, which was the factor for the sales of the euro.

Similarly important are the results of trade settlements in between the United States and China. Ought to the dispute escalate, capital flight to safe houses will accelerate the fall of EUR/ USD. Only the presence of an advancement will allow the bulls to go to the counter.

Technically, bears on the primary currency pair are making titanic efforts to bring quotes outside the trading range of 1.1265-1.1485. If they prosper, the threats of target realization by 127.2% on the “Butterfly” pattern will increase.

EUR/ USD, the everyday chart

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The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops 0.6% In January

By | February 15, 2019

Industrial production in the U.S. suddenly reduced in the month of January, the Federal Reserve exposed in a report released on Friday.

The Fed stated commercial production fell by 0.6 percent in January after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in December.

Economists had expected production to tick up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.3 percent boost originally reported for the previous month.

The unforeseen drop in commercial production came as producing output slumped by 0.9 percent in January after climbing by 0.8 percent in December.

The pullback in manufacturing output mainly showed a big drop in production of motor vehicle assemblies, although factory output still dipped by 0.2 percent excluding motor vehicles and parts.

On the other hand, the report said energies output rose by 0.4 percent in January after plunging by 6.9 percent in December.

Mining output likewise inched up by 0.1 percent in January following a 1.5 percent dive in the previous month.

The Fed likewise said capability utilization for the commercial sector was up to 78.2 percent in January from an upwardly revised 78.8 percent in December.

Economists had anticipated capacity usage to come in unchanged compared to the 78.7 percent initially reported for the previous month.

Capability usage in the manufacturing and mining sectors was up to 75.8 percent and 94.8 percent, respectively, while capacity utilization in the energies sector edged up to 75.4 percent.

The material has been offered by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander