Brexit divided Wall Street into two camps: Goldman is waiting for an offer while JPMorgan is not

By | February 15, 2019

As the Brexit crisis deepens, the 2 giants of Wall Street have entirely different views on the final result. Goldman Sachs sees a half possibility of a validated deal while JP Morgan discusses the postponement. If British Prime Minister Theresa May can not settle on a Brexit handle Parliament, she will need to choose whether to put Brexit on hold or plunge the world’s 5th largest economy into mayhem.

ZHEwElljA5zcnlOaemelh6vBgJfGKtW7ZPpt_0C5

Goldman Sachs with a likelihood of half thinks that May deal will be validated. In addition, legislators will eventually block the exit without an offer, if required. The probability of exit without an offer is 15 percent and the overall cancellation of Brexit has to do with 35 percent. “There is a bulk in the House of Commons who wishes to prevent Brexit” without an offer “, however there is no majority in the House of Commons prepared to support the 2nd referendum, a minimum of at this stage,” kept in mind Goldman.

JPMorgan thinks that May will look for to extend the deadline for approval till March 29. “We still believe that it is likely for the Prime Minister, rather of enabling unsuccessful ballot and subsequent ministerial resignations, will try to act proactively and will seek to extend the due dates,” the company kept in mind. The divergence of views of the 2 most influential count on Wall Street shows how diligent investors in reading the maze of charts on the eve of Brexit, which is the most substantial political and economic movement of the United Kingdom given that the Second World War. Recall that many big banks improperly anticipated the outcomes of the 2016 referendum.

The material has actually been offered by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

UK Retail Sales Rebound Strongly At Start Of Year

By | February 15, 2019

UK retail sales rebounded strongly at the start of the year, rising at a faster-than-expected pace, led by robust growth in clothing and footwear sales that were supported by price cuts, offering some respite amid the chaotic developments as Brexit looms.

Retail sales including auto fuel rose 1 percent from December, when they decreased 0.7 percent, preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent gain.

On a year-on-year basis, retail sales including auto fuel rose 4.2 percent in January, which was the biggest increase since December 2016.

Economists had expected sales growth to rise modestly to 3.4 percent from December’s 3.1 percent increase.

Clothing and footwear sales grew 5.5 percent year-on-year amid a price fall of 0.9 percent. Food store sales returned to strong growth, rising 3.2 percent.

Meanwhile, online sales as a total of all retailing shrunk to 18.8 percent in January from 19.8 percent in December.

Excluding auto fuel, retail sales climbed 1.2 percent monthly reversing a 1 percent slump in December. Economists had forecast a modest 0.2 percent gain.

Compared to a year ago, retail sales excluding auto fuel grew 4.1 percent in January after a 2.9 percent increase in December. That was the fastest increase in six months. Economists had forecast 3.2 percent gain.

“Clothing stores saw strong sales, luring consumers with price reductions, with food sales also growing after a slight dip over Christmas,” ONS Head of Retail Sales Rhian Murphy said.

With the Brexit uncertainty dampening economic activity, consumer spending in recent months were likely supported by wage growth, which is at a decade-high, and slowing inflation.

“Brexit uncertainty is likely to keep a lid on spending over the next few months,” ING economist James Smith said.

“Shoppers may opt against bigger ticket purchases in the short-term, instead choosing to maintain savings levels,” the economist added

Official data released earlier this week showed that Britain’s economic growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the full year growth was the slowest in six years, as activity was dampened by Brexit worries and global trade tensions.

Gross domestic product grew 0.2 percent from the third quarter, when the economy?expanded 0.6 percent. Economic growth in the full year 2018 was 1.4 percent, which was the slowest since 2012, when the economy expanded at the same pace.

The UK is set to leave the European Union on March 29, but Prime Minister Theresa May is yet to figure out how this is going to happen – whether the country would leave the bloc with some deal on trade and other crucial matters or quit without any arrangements.

The Bank of England warned earlier that a no-deal Brexit would cause a severe recession in the UK, the kind not even seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago.

The central bank lowered the growth forecast for this year to 1.2 percent, the slowest pace in a decade, from 1.7 percent predicted in November. That was the biggest cut in the projection since the 2016 referendum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

New York City Production Index Rebounds More Than Expected In February

By | February 15, 2019

A report launched by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York City on Friday showed a noteworthy rebound in the rate of development in local manufacturing activity in the month of February.

The New York Fed stated its basic service conditions index climbed to 8.8 in February from 3.9 in January, with a favorable reading showing development in regional production activity. Economists had actually anticipated the index to increase to 7.0.

The larger than anticipated boost by the index came after it tumbled to its most affordable level in well over a year in the previous month.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

U.S. Import And Export Costs Drop Far More Than Anticipated In January

By | February 15, 2019

U.S. import and export costs both fell by a lot more than prepared for in the month of January, according to a report launched by the Labor Department on Friday.

The report said import costs fell by 0.5 percent in January after tumbling by 1.0 percent in December, while economic experts had anticipated import prices to edge down by 0.1 percent.

Excluding a high drop in rates for fuel imports, import costs still dipped by 0.2 percent in January after being available in the same in the previous month.

The Labor Department stated export prices likewise slid by 0.6 percent for the second successive month in January. Economic experts had anticipated export costs to slip by 0.1 percent.

Costs for non-agricultural exports fell by 0.3 percent in January after plunging by 1.1 percent in the previous month.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Evaluation of the foreign exchange market on 02/15/2019

By | February 15, 2019

Yesterday was extreme and extremely interesting however most significantly, exceptionally varied in regards to the behavior of specific currencies. For example, the single European currency acted quite academically, strictly complying with the logic of published macroeconomic information. European stats itself did not surprise anybody since the 2nd estimate of GDP entirely accompanied the very first, showing a downturn once again in financial growth from 1.6%to 1.2%. American data considerably disappointed market participants. In particular, inflation information released on Wednesday motivated hope that the slowdown in producer prices would not be so strong, but in truth, they slowed down from 2.5%to 2.0 %. They predicted a slowdown to 2.1%. Likewise, much worse were data on applications for unemployment benefits came out than forecasts. It was predicted that their total number would reduce by 6 thousand, but in reality, it increased by 41 thousand. It is not surprising that the single European currency was able to enhance its position the other day. The number of preliminary applications increased by 4 thousand instead of reducing by 10 thousand while the variety of repeated applications for unemployment benefits did not increase by 4 thousand however by 37 thousand.

Well, the worst thing is that the development rate of retail sales dropped down from 4.1% to 2.3% and in combination with a slowdown in inflation, this is just a combination mixt. However, waiting for the acceleration of development to 4.5%, the next macroeconomic data clearly show that the Federal Reserve will seriously consider alleviating monetary policy.

However with the pound, everything is a little bit different due to another difficulty around Brexit. The British Parliament, also described as your home of Commons, declined legislative changes proposed by Theresa May to avoid the so-called Backstop. The fact is that parliamentarians flatly refuse to accept any agreement that does not manage trade problems, specifically associated to the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. If Brexit takes place in the kind as spelled out in the present variation of the agreement adopted by Europe, then Northern Ireland will find itself in an unique position very various from the rest of Fantastic Britain. The most crucial thing here is that in this case, all trade and monetary flows between the UK and the European Union will go through Northern Ireland. As a result, huge earnings will settle there.

MfVyvdQgDEPHXjeXBFFm54618emsjWUgtDkP3mqt

According to the fair conversation of parliamentarians, this produces the ground for a new wave of separatism and threatens the territorial integrity of the UK. It is not surprising that your home of Commons obstructs any arrangement that permits such a possibility. At the same time, the European Union refuses to talk about any other alternatives besides the one that already exists. Hence, hard Brexit is becoming more real, which triggers an additional decrease of the pound.

Px9EzVUPgEpZFB06y906udXlBG3mD6aPCRXb9GJb

Today, the industrial production data is launched in the United States, which is far from positive even without the other day’s failed data. Certainly, the growth rate of commercial production should decrease from 4.0% to 3.6% and there is every factor to think that the downturn will be even more considerable. This is shown by the slowed in production orders and the continued growth in inventories. A decline was apparent from yesterday’s data, this decrease is not sufficient to cover the previous development. Given that no information is coming out in Europe, it deserves waiting on a negative reaction particularly for the dollar and the single European currency can rise to 1.1300.

S90W53jHrKOU2jDpIdifYV3W7V-hWCFTsEjuTpdb

There is a terrific opportunity for a long-awaited correction. Because apart from industrial production in the United States, the United Kingdom itself forecasts an acceleration in retail sales development from 3.0% to 3.4%. The current slowdown in inflation will be forgotten as sales grow and will provide the pound more self-confidence. Therefore, it is worth waiting on the progressive growth of the pound to 1.2875.

sEEq6ZZRmaCtsiluvswnhgMrMrEEY8e_d6WItM-a

The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Intraday technical levels and trading suggestions for GBP/USD for February 15, 2019 888011000 110888 On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum pertained to an end when the GBP/USD set visited the cost levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken day-to-day uptrend was located.Since then, the present bullish swing has actually been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was practically approachingthe supply level of 1.3240. That’s when the current bearish pullback was initiated around a little lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the illustrated supply levels in RED). This was followed by a bearish engulfing day-to-day candlestick on January 29. Therefore, the GBP/USD set lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.However, absence of bullish need was just recently being shown on the recent few daily candlesticks. The short-term circumstance turned bearish towards 1.2820-1.2800 where( 50 %Fibonacci level)as well as a previous prominent top are situated (Highlighted in BLUE )where price action should be seen cautiously.For the bullish side to restore supremacy, bullish breakout above 1.2920(38.2%Fibonacci)must be re-established early (Low likelihood ). On the other hand, bearish breakdown listed below 1.2770 boosts further bearish decline towards the cost zone of 1.2690-1.2700 where considerablebullish need will most likely be demonstrated.The material has actually been offered by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | February 15, 2019

analytics5c66ac5bb47a8.png

On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That’s when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

However, lack of bullish demand was recently being demonstrated on the recent few daily candlesticks.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) as well as a previous prominent top are located (Highlighted in BLUE) where price action should be watched cautiously.

For the bullish side to regain dominance, bullish breakout above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) should be re-established early (Low probability).

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.2770 enhances further bearish decline towards the price zone of 1.2690-1.2700 where significant bullish demand will probably be demonstrated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

February 15, 2019: The EUR/USD pair can not hold within its daily movement channel.

By | February 15, 2019

analytics5c66a9deebe67.png

Given that June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has actually been moving sideways with minor bearish propensity within the illustrated bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD set demonstrated current bullish healing around 1.1220-1.1250 where the present bullish movement above the portrayed short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to boost more bullish movement towards 1.1520. Nevertheless, the marketplace has been demonstrating apparent bearish rejection around 1.1430 couple of times so far.The EUR/USD set has actually lost its bullish momentum given that January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was shown around 1.1514 where another descending high was developed then.On February 5, a bearish everyday candlestick closure listed below 1.1420 ended the current

bullish healing. This enabled the current bearish movement to happen towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limitation of the

illustrated DAILY channel comes to satisfy the pair. The EUR/USD set is stopping working to hold within its daily channel with early signs of bullish weak point appearing on the chart.On the other hand, a bearish flag pattern might be verified if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is accomplished on the daily-chart basis.

Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000. Trade Recommendations: Intraday traders can search for a counter-trend BUY entry around the current cost levels (1.1285)(lower limit of the portrayed

motion channel). TIGHT

Stop Loss to be situated listed below 1.1240 while T/P level to be situated around 1.1350 and 1.1420. The material has been supplied by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 15, 2019 888011000 110888 Introduction: The NZD/USD set breached resistance which had developed into strong support at the level of 0.6705 today. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is thought about to be overbought, since it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the pattern is up as it is still strong above the moving average(100). Note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This recommends that the pair will most likely increase in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish pattern. In other words, purchase orders are advised to be positioned above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the set is likely to begin an ascending motion to the point of 0.6882 and even more to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will serve as strong resistance. Nevertheless, if there is a breakout at the assistance level of 0.6705 , this circumstance might become invalidated.The product has been provided by InstaForex Business -www.instaforex.com

By | February 15, 2019

analytics5c66997f60649.png

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 15, 2019 888011000 110888 < imgwidth=”450″ src= “http://qkfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/technical-analysis-of-usd-chf-for-february-15-2019.png”alt= “analytics5c669807a2ec1.png “/ > Summary: The USD/CHF set continues to move up-wards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the very first assistance level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. In addition, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which accompanies the 50 %Fibonacci retracement level. This assistance has been rejected three times verifying the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous occasions, we anticipate the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. The support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. The market is most likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. Simply put, purchase orders are recommended above the area of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. If the USD/CHF pair stops working to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decrease even more to 0.9908. The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

By | February 15, 2019

analytics5c669807a2ec1.png

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

The volatility of the Australian dollar brings in both “bulls” and “bears”

By | February 15, 2019

At the moment, professionals record the high volatility of the Australian dollar, which has been in the hands of hedge funds. They are actively banking on equally exclusive positions: on the development of the AUD rate, and on its fall.According to Nader Naeimi, a fund manager at AMP Capital Investors, the current situation is best for AUD trading. Many currency market specialists recommended selling the Australian dollar, and now they are more likely to purchase it. Some market gamers abide by the strategies of “dragging the rope,” for instance, Geoff Wood, head of threat management at Morphic Asset Management, who keeps in mind that the company offers “Australian” when its rate rises to 72 cents and buys back after reducing to 60 cents.Australian currency is

influenced by excellent geopolitical news, but the desire to avoid risk likewise puts pressure on it. As an outcome, the volatility of the currency of the Green continent stirs the active interest of the majority of market participants.Australian currency is delicate to unpredictabilities

in the worldwide economy. The green continent is considered the world’s largest exporter of iron ore, so the Australian dollar is extremely dependent on investor belief relating to the prospects for the worldwide economy. Australian currency strengthens with favorable belief and increased risk hunger on the part of investors. At the minute, contending elements that emerged concurrently led to an increase in the irregularity of the AUD rate.Last year, the Australian dollar fell by nearly 10 %versus the United States currency and ended up being an outsider amongst developed countries. A negative impact on the “Australian”had a trade conflict between the United States and China, as well as the increase in the Fed’s rates. Given that the beginning of this year, the Australian currency has actually partly recuperated, supported by increasing iron ore costs and amidst the US and Chinese truce. However, experts discover it hard to give an answer regarding the future potential customers of AUD. The reasons for this are the delicate balance in accomplishing a trade truce between America and China, as well as the uncertainty of the technique of world central banks about raising the rate. Recall that at the moment the Fed took a pause in the cycle of tightening financial policy.The present uncertainty of the geopolitical situation adds to the high volatility of the Australian dollar

. This matches hedge funds, which gain from the scenarios. The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander