Global macro introduction for 16/06/2017

By | June 16, 2017

Worldwide macro summary for 16/06/2017: The Bank of England decided to leave the interest rate the same at the level of 0.25% as expected, however MPC vote was a surprise. The Monetary Policy Committee was expected to vote 7-1 as usual, but the vote was 5-3 as 2 more policy members, Saunders and McCafferty, sign up with Forbes in requiring a rate walking. The asset purchase targets were the same: prior possession purchase target was 435billion and prior corporate bond purchase target was 1billion.

In the Monetary Policy Summary we can check out that all MPC agree any rate increase should be progressive and restricted. The CPI inflation might exceed 3% by autumn 2017 and the sterling’s fall given that the May inflation report will add to this if fall is sustained. The BoE’s tolerance of the above-target CPI is being eroded as strong employment growth might suggest spare capacity. The UK wage development remains weak even relative to historic standards, so it can further slow the customer costs. At the end, the BoE revised Q1 GDP growth to +0.3%, and Q2 to +0.4%.

In conclusion, market individual were shocked by the ballot outcomes (there hasn’t been a split like 5-3 considering that 2011) and hawkish tone of the policy summary. There was a talk of more QE or a rate trek in the future, but the BoE is headed in the other direction despite political uncertainty. The Brexit negotiations will begin on Monday, 19th of June. It appears like the BoE is seeing things in a different way than the markets and isn’t really sure what’s occurring in the economy or exactly what will be the result of the settlements, even if it will agree with for the UK.

Let’s now take a look at the GBP/USD technical image on the H4 timeframe. The cable leapt right after the press release, however then slowly gave up all the gains. Presently, it is trading in the middle of the range in a sideways cost action pattern. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2818 and the next support lies at 1.2690.

analytics5943b8a4d5522.jpg

The product has been supplied by InstaForex Business – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Trading prepare for 16/06/2017

By | June 16, 2017

Trading plan for 16/06/2017: Bank of Japan left the monetary policy specifications unchanged while inflation expectations stay weak despite enhancing financial conditions. As an outcome, JPY is the weakest currency from the G10 basket and is the only one losing to the dollar. The greatest are risky currencies – AUD (+0.15%), GBP, and NZD (+ 0.1%). The United States dollar is picking up speed throughout the board again.On Friday

16th of June, the occasion calendar is hectic with essential financial news. Eurozone will reveal the Customer Cost Index, Russia will provide Key Bank Rate decision, and Canada will post Foreign Securities Purchases. The US will release Structure Permits, Real estate Begins, and Michigan Customer Sentiment Index.EUR/ USD analysis for 16/06/2017:

The Consumer Rate Index information are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market individuals anticipate no change here, so the 1.4% annual infaltion boost must stay in place. In April, the increase was much greater at 1.9%, which some commentators incorrectly interpreted to imply that the European Reserve bank is close to its inflation target of 2%. Low inflation readings, in addition to the moderate and decreasing inflation outlook, will basically keep the ECB from too-hawkish statements in the future. Regardless of an absence of changes in ECB financial policy, the inflation is not rising quickly enough in the Eurozone and recent dovish remarks from ECB President Mario Draghi still support the view of wait-and-see technique implemented by ECB. Additionally, the FED hawkish remarks today may suggest the EUR/USD pair will face more selling pressure in the near future as United States policymakers have actually accepted deliver a minimum of one more hike this year.Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical photo on the H4 amount of time. The marketplace is too weak to rally above the golden trend line resistnace, so a failure is expected around the level of 1.1200 once again, even if today’s information will be better than expected. The market conditions are starting to look oversold and the momentum indicator is still hovering listed below the fifty level, so the price action at the end of the week need to stay sideways. The closest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1130 – 1.1108 and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1236.

analytics5943a08de52ce.jpg

Market Picture: Crude Oil trades below

78% Fibo level The prices of Crude Oil degraded below the 78%Fibo and now are trading just above the last Might’s low at the level of $43.74. All of the attempts to rally higher resulted only in a phony breakout above the navy pattern line and after that the price made new lows. The marketplace conditions remain oversold, however the momentum indicator is still hovering below the fifty level, so no bullish pressure is present at the moment. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $45.21.

analytics5943a096e593e.jpg

Market Picture: AUD/USD under an increasing selling pressure

On the daily time frame chart of AUD/USD, selling pressure (gray rectangle) around the 61%Fibo level can be seen, however the pair is still attempting to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 0.7636. The market conditions look overbought, so a restorative relocate to the downside can occur anytime now. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7568

analytics5943a0a034e8c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for June 16, 2017 888011000 110888 NZD/USD has actually remained in a bullish non-volatile pattern considering that the break above 0.7050 resistance level. Currently the cost is showing some volatility in the market on the back of recent financial reports from the United States and New Zealand. New Zealand released the GDP report at 0.5% which was much better than previous worth of 0.4% but even worse than anticipated value of 0.7% which impacted the NZD negatively yesterday. Furthermore, the Fed rate hike decision offered some favorable gains on USD side which currently stopped briefly the NZD bullish trend. Today NZ Service Manufacturing Index was published which showed a rise to 58.5 from 56.9 formerly and the news helped NZD to make some gains today. The United States will reveal the Building Allows report which is expected to increase to 1.25 M from 1.23 M previously. The Housing Begins report is likewise anticipated to reveal a rise to 1.23 M from 1.17 M. As the high effect US reports are to be published, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market today where positive USD reports may lead to counter pattern relocation in this set in the coming days.Now let uslook at the technical view. The price has actually moved in a non-volatile way given that the break above the resistance at 0.7050. There have actually been very little retracements in the pattern so far which has actually taken the price rather far from the dynamic level of 20 EMA. Since the recent bearish cost action, presently the set is anticipated to backtrack back to 20 EMA. If 20 EMA is breached below, then the rate may fall to 0.7050 level to retest it as a support before continuing further upward. The bias is currently bullish in this pair until the rate breaks below 0.7050 with a daily close. The material has actually been supplied by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

By | June 16, 2017

NZD/USD has been in a bullish non-volatile trend since the break above 0.7050 resistance level. Currently the price is showing some volatility in the market on the back of recent economic reports from the US and New Zealand. New Zealand published the GDP report at 0.5% which was better than previous value of 0.4% but worse than expected value of 0.7% which affected the NZD negatively yesterday. Moreover, the Fed rate hike decision provided some positive gains on USD side which currently paused the NZD bullish trend. Today NZ Business Manufacturing Index was published which showed a rise to 58.5 from 56.9 previously and the news helped NZD to make some gains today. The United States will unveil the Building Permits report which is expected to increase to 1.25M from 1.23M previously. The Housing Starts report is also expected to show a rise to 1.23M from 1.17M. As the high impact US reports are to be published, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market today where positive USD reports may lead to counter trend move in this pair in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has moved in a non-volatile way since the break above the resistance at 0.7050. There have been very little retracements in the trend so far which has taken the price quite far from the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As of the recent bearish price action, currently the pair is expected to retrace back to 20 EMA. If 20 EMA is breached below, then the price may fall to 0.7050 level to retest it as a support before proceeding further upward. The bias is currently bullish in this pair until the price breaks below 0.7050 with a daily close.

analytics59439ad0338d3.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for June 16, 2017 888011000 110888 AUD/JPY is presently in an impulsive bullish run after the favorable economic report released yesterday. The Australian Employment Change report was released with a better than anticipated result at 42.0 k versus the forecast of 9.7 k. Moreover, the joblessness rate decreased to 5.5% which was anticipated to be the same at 5.7%. With the favorable work reports, AUD got an enormous boost versus JPY the other day which can still be observed. Today the Bank of Japan exposed its policy statement, leaving the rate unchanged. As the short-term interest rate is one of the essential aspects for currency appraisal, this news might not offer much assistance to the Japanese currency to contend versus the aussie. As of the existing fundamental scenario, AUD is expected to control over JPY in the coming days.Now let uslook at the technical view. The cost is currently at the edge of the resistance level of 84.50. If it breaks above the level with an everyday close today then we will be looking forward to buy with a target towards 86.20. As the market has currently shown a good quantity of fatigue recently, additional bullish relocation is anticipated in this pair. The bullish bias is expected to continue till price breaks listed below 83.00 with an everyday close. The material has been supplied by InstaForex Business -www.instaforex.com

By | June 16, 2017

AUD/JPY is currently in an impulsive bullish run after the positive economic report published yesterday. The Australian Employment Change report was published with a better than expected result at 42.0k versus the forecast of 9.7k. Moreover, the unemployment rate decreased to 5.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.7%. With the positive employment reports, AUD got a massive boost against JPY yesterday which can still be observed. Today the Bank of Japan revealed its policy statement, leaving the rate unchanged. As the short-term interest rate is one of the key factors for currency valuation, this news could not provide much support to the Japanese currency to compete against the aussie. As of the current fundamental situation, AUD is expected to dominate over JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently at the edge of the resistance level of 84.50. If it breaks above the level with a daily close today then we will be looking forward to buy with a target towards 86.20. As the market has already shown a good amount of exhaustion recently, further bullish move is expected in this pair. The bullish bias is expected to continue until price breaks below 83.00 with a daily close.

analytics5943964f7b8d4.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 16, 2017 888011000 110888 The Dollar index bounced strongly towards short-term resistance at 97.50. This is essential resistance and rate has actually stopped the rise. Bulls have to break above 97.50 in order for our bounce target of 99 to be accomplished. 96.50 is now extremely vital assistance. If lost, we are most probably going near 94-95. Red line- resistance Blue line -support The Dollar index is mainly moving sideways for the last couple of weeks. Price is at important short-term resistance. Cost is above the Kumo(bullish)but the Kumo is extremely thin(weak or bearish assistance). Blue lines -bearish channel Red line -short-term resistance The Dollar index is bouncing hard off the lower channel limit. The 14th June everyday candle light is a reversal everyday candle and as previously mentioned, I expect the Dollar index to move towards the Daily Kumo resistance at 98.50-99. This is not the time to be bearish the Dollar as long as cost is above 96.50. The product has actually been provided by InstaForex Company-www.instaforex.com

By | June 16, 2017

The Dollar index bounced strongly towards short-term resistance at 97.50. This is important resistance and price has stopped the rise. Bulls need to break above 97.50 in order for our bounce target of 99 to be achieved. 96.50 is now very critical support. If lost, we are most probably going near 94-95.

analytics594382092067e.png

Red line – resistance

Blue line – support

The Dollar index is mainly moving sideways for the last few weeks. Price is at important short-term resistance. Price is above the Kumo (bullish) but the Kumo is very thin (bearish or weak support).

analytics59438268600a7.png

Blue lines – bearish channel

Red line -short-term resistance

The Dollar index is bouncing hard off the lower channel boundary. The 14th June daily candle is a reversal daily candle and as previously mentioned, I expect the Dollar index to move towards the Daily Kumo resistance at 98.50-99. This is not the time to be bearish the Dollar as long as price is above 96.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 16, 2017 888011000 110888 Gold rate has actually reached the $1,250 location as we expected from $1,280 and higher. Trend is bearish. I believe that Gold weakness will continue and we may see even below $1,245 where crucial support is discovered. Gold bears must be mindful as the time for a bullish turnaround is approaching. Gold cost is trading listed below both the tenkan -and kijun-sen. There are some bullish divergence check in the short-term. Rate is listed below the 38%Fibonacci retracement.Price is expected to reach the 61.8%Fibonacci retracement to $1,245. This is now the time to cover and take profits from any Gold brief position. Black line-long-lasting resistance pattern line Red line-trend line assistance Blue line -long-term support pattern line Gold cost is approaching the red trend line support after being declined at the black long-lasting pattern line resistance. Rate is above the weekly cloud. A bounce off the weekly Kumo at$1,245 will be an extremely bullish sign. As I have been stating last week, Gold was not prepared for a huge breakout. I think the time for a big breakout has actually come closer and I remain longer-term bullish.The product has actually been offered by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

By | June 16, 2017

Gold price has reached the $1,250 area as we expected from $1,280 and higher. Trend is bearish. I believe that Gold weakness will continue and we might see even below $1,245 where important support is found. However Gold bears should be cautious as the time for a bullish reversal is approaching.

analytics5943810089beb.png

Gold price is trading below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen. There are some bullish divergence signs in the short-term. Price is below the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price is expected to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards $1,245. This is now the time to cover and take profits from any Gold short position.

analytics5943814c1b73f.jpg

Black line – long-term resistance trend line

Red line – trend line support

Blue line – long-term support trend line

Gold price is approaching the red trend line support after being rejected at the black long-term trend line resistance. Price is above the weekly cloud. A bounce off the weekly Kumo at $1,245 will be a very bullish sign. As I have been saying last week, Gold was not ready for a big breakout. I believe the time for a big breakout has come closer and I remain longer-term bullish.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 16, 2017 888011000 110888 Wave summary: Our favored count remains that a low most likely was seen with the test of 1.5370 and wave iii/ higher is prepared to develop. That stated, we require a break above the resistance line near 1.5532 to verify that wave ii/ has actually finished and wave iii/ greater to above 1.6237 is developing. Up until the break above the resistance-line near 1.5532 isseen, we should enable a retestof the 1.5370 low andeven a spikebelow, however that should be short lived. R3: 1.5564 R2:1.5517 R1: 1.5480 Pivot: 1.5460 S1: 1.5453 S2: 1.5424 S3. 1.5370 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.5540 with stop positioned at 1.5340. Purchase a break above 1.5532 and utilize the same stop if you are not long EUR yet. The product has actually been supplied by InstaForex Company- www.instaforex.com

By | June 16, 2017

analytics5943634e45e0e.png

Wave summary:

Our preferred count remains that a low likely was seen with the test of 1.5370 and wave iii/ higher is ready to develop. That said, we need a break above the resistance line near 1.5532 to confirm that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ higher to above 1.6237 is developing.

Until the break above the resistance-line near 1.5532 is seen, we must allow for a retest of the 1.5370 low and even a spike below, but that should be short lived.

R3: 1.5564

R2: 1.5517

R1: 1.5480

Pivot: 1.5460

S1: 1.5453

S2: 1.5424

S3. 1.5370

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5540 with stop placed at 1.5340. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5532 and use the same stop.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 16, 2017 888011000 110888 Wave summary: EUR/JPY got assistance at 122.53 for a dip to 122.37. This minor break listed below 122.53 was enough to change the restorative pattern unfolding from 125.82. Instead of a triangle combination, the restorative pattern has actually developed into a flat correction with wave B complete with the test of 122.37 and wave C greater to a minimum of 133.34 nowdeveloping. Short-term, we will likely seeresistancenear 124.05holding fora minor set-back to 123.00 before strongly higher. R3: 124.71 R2: 124.40 R1: 124.05 Pivot: 123.75 S1: 123.50 S2: 123.19 S3: 123.00 Trading recommendation : Our stop at 122.45 was hit for a loss of 50 pips. We will purchase EUR once again at 123.25 or upon a break above 124.50. The product has been offered by InstaForex Business-www.instaforex.com

By | June 16, 2017

analytics5943619eba226.png

Wave summary:

EUR/JPY took out support at 122.53 for a dip to 122.37. This minor break below 122.53 was enough to change the corrective pattern unfolding from 125.82. Instead of a triangle consolidation, the corrective pattern has turned into a flat correction with wave B complete with the test of 122.37 and wave C higher towards at least 133.34 now developing.

Short-term, we will likely see resistance near 124.05 holding for a minor set-back to 123.00 before strongly higher.

R3: 124.71

R2: 124.40

R1: 124.05

Pivot: 123.75

S1: 123.50

S2: 123.19

S3: 123.00

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 122.45 was hit for a loss of 50 pips. We will buy EUR again at 123.25 or upon a break above 124.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Jonathon Alexander